crossbowftw3 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 12 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Winter storm watch is already posted for Sullivan and Deleware county in NY. My latest forecast from NWS is basically a nothing burger. Rain/snow mix. Light snow accumulation. Not at all a slam dunk for those of us even up here. 8-18, sure, but 18 would be confined to the high elevations, unless the eastern camps win out and leave even us somewhat high and dry. So many moving, confusing parts of this whole evolution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: Maybe for most of NJ, NYC and LI. Our northern posters would get smacked if that run were correct. That's what he's taking issue with. I only care about Long Island. Delete the thread 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, Rjay said: Maybe for most of NJ, NYC and LI. Our northern posters would get smacked if that run were correct. That's what he's taking issue with. Yeah. Goes with my post earlier. If this storm isnt for you…just move on. I dont understand the need to keep (not saying winterwx21 has done this, just speaking generally here) harping on “this isnt “our” storm” etc. If its not, its not. Prob not even for parts of the northern burbs either. But for parts of the subforum, there is still a potential for anything from a couple inches to a significant storm. same thing with posting of models. If someone who should know better posts a model to hype it, yeah gtfo. But if a model gets posted to discuss changes, comparisons, etc, in a forum about weather….lets not lose our minds. You dont need to discuss it if you dont want to. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: Maybe for most of NJ, NYC and LI. Our northern posters would get smacked if that run were correct. That's what he's taking issue with. Oh sure. It could be a good storm to the north. I'm in north central Jersey, so I'm talking about my area and the NYC area. For this area it isn't looking good right now, but we have enough time for positive changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Some random EPS snowfall members: FWN (Sussex County NJ), MMU, EWR, CPK, ISP, ALB Fully understand this is not 10:1 event for anyone except maybe for ALB area so immediately cut the amounts on the others. There is little ensemble support for anything decent south of 80 and east of 287. Sharp contrast in EPS members from Sussex to MMU to EWR. Areas along and north of 80 and west of 287 have best CHANCE at 6"+. ALB members are what you want to see for area wide heavy snow. For most of this forum support for more than 2" is very weak. UNLESS there is some improvement in EPS tonight and/or 12Z tomorrow this event is likely over for coastal sections and immediate NYC burbs. Still a bit of time but there has been no noticeable uptick in EPS support during recent cycles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 ISP and ALB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Yeah. Goes with my post earlier. If this storm isnt for you…just move on. I dont understand the need to keep (not saying winterwx21 has done this, just speaking generally here) harping on “this isnt “our” storm” etc. If its not, its not. Prob not even for parts of the northern burbs either. But for parts of the subforum, there is still a potential for anything from a couple inches to a significant storm. same thing with posting of models. If someone who should know better posts a model to hype it, yeah gtfo. But if a model gets posted to discuss changes, comparisons, etc, in a forum about weather….lets not lose our minds. You dont need to discuss it if you dont want to. I wouldn't move on, because I would still find it interesting if parts of our area get significant snow. Hopefully it will deliver for our snow lover friends to the north, and I'm still hoping to see positive changes for the NYC area. Maybe tonight's model runs will look better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I only care about Long Island. Delete the thread That's a pretty dumb comment. So why don't you just not read the thread and not post? Maybe watching reruns of The View is more up your alley? 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: That's a pretty dumb comment. So why don't you just not read the thread and not post? Maybe watching reruns of The View is more up your alley? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 9 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I only care about Long Island. Delete the thread You're joking, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 15 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: This is a really big storm and very good model consensus of a significant snowfall North of I84. I don't know about model consensus right now. FWIW the Ukie, CMC, RGEM, and 18z Nam are all showing less than 6 inches when using less than 10:1 ratio. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: You're joking, right? Yes. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilsonvoid1 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 GFS running LFG. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Sorry I’m a sore loser snow weenie if I don’t get snow I’m going to have a breakdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilsonvoid1 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 GFS is going to be way east!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, wilsonvoid1 said: GFS is going to be way east! . That’s definitely not what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Yes. Ok. LOL! Disregard my comment then! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 EPS members for NYC: The number of members with large snowfalls of 10" or more has increased in such areas as Boston, Poughkeepsie and White Plains. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 18z gfs is a disaster for most of he subforum. Still looks good north of I84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: 18z gfs is a disaster for most of he subforum. Still looks good north of I84. And SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Man this winter sucked You can't even trust the models 3 days out. Awful Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: 18z gfs is a disaster for most of he subforum. Still looks good north of I84. 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: And SNE 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Man this winter sucked You can't even trust the models 3 days out. Awful Quote Oh for christs sake 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Man this winter sucked You can't even trust the models 3 days out. Awful Quote That’s why I think it’s important to look at the right models. The RGEM has never liked this event for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Man this winter sucked You can't even trust the models 3 days out. Awful Quote Despite what the GFS just showed, I’ll give it to 12Z tomorrow although it would be a fitting end to an absolute atrocious winter with one last knee kick to the nuts. Old man winter owes us big time next year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 11 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Despite what the GFS just showed, I’ll give it to 12Z tomorrow although it would be a fitting end to an absolute atrocious winter with one last knee kick to the nuts. Old man winter owes us big time next year. My lack of optimism is less about what an 18z gfs showed and more about the fact that no model is really showing a significant snow event for I95 corridor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Despite what the GFS just showed, I’ll give it to 12Z tomorrow although it would be a fitting end to an absolute atrocious winter with one last knee kick to the nuts. Old man winter owes us big time next year.Better hope it’s a weak El Niño, and not the strong one . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Better hope it’s a weak El Niño, and not the strong one .Yep. Every strong niño seems to reset things, and for the worst. We need a moderate niño Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 31 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Better hope it’s a weak El Niño, and not the strong one . Who cares Just bring on El Nino 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Couldn't possibly be any worse than what we've just been through! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 hours ago, winterwx21 said: I wouldn't move on, because I would still find it interesting if parts of our area get significant snow. Hopefully it will deliver for our snow lover friends to the north, and I'm still hoping to see positive changes for the NYC area. Maybe tonight's model runs will look better. There are also other things that make a storm much more historic than raw snowfall numbers. I've mentioned December 1992. This storm can be historic in more impactful ways than snowfall so that should be watched for too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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