sussexcountyobs Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 It's all about where the capture takes place, stalls, and does it's little retrograde loop. No model will have a handle on it till probably late tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Could really use that western ridge to be stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 11, 2023 Author Share Posted March 11, 2023 Typical windshield wiper today. Don’t be surprised if it goes back East tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Typical windshield wiper today. Don’t be surprised if it goes back East tonight It was a big shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It was a big shift Not really imo. If we start seeing 6+ into the city and snow down to ACY id be more excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Looks like the Nam is coming more west 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Looks like the Nam is coming more west Where do you see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Looks like the Nam is coming more west Yep more phasing 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 NAM more consolidated southern vort and a better digging northern vort. Should be a good result for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yep more phasing That southern stream keeps trending more consolidated. If that keeps up I think we will get some good snows. 6-8" ain't off the table 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: That southern stream keeps trending more consolidated. If that keeps up I think we will get some good snows. 6-8" ain't off the table Yes. Trend is our friend…but it’s also the 18z NAM lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, jdj5211 said: Yes. Trend is our friend…but it’s also the 18z NAM lol 12z Euro also came west 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 The lack of clarity surrounding the evolution of this storm is astounding. The most important period of this entire evolution occurs around 36-48 hours and models are still all over the damn place with it. The NAM gets close to even giving the mid Atlantic some snow. Go figure.Pretty surprising to see so many changes from run to run on every model. Just goes to show you how delicate this setup is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Nam looks east to me… 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Nam looks east to me…Wayyyyy east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Wayyyyy east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 The southern stream is too strong and ends up pushing it much further east with less phasing. We’ll see about that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 NAM cold and around an inch of QPF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 why are we looking at the long range NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 These models have no clue still. 18z nam gives me 15 inches less than 12z, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 I know it's off topic. But Light snow has started to fall here for last 20 minutes or so. Not sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 22 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: The southern stream is too strong and ends up pushing it much further east with less phasing. We’ll see about that. It's the NAM so I wouldn't be concerned. But what looks likely is that we have this inverted trough feature as the storm comes in that might be spinning up this western low appendage, and it screws people near the coast because that inverted trough brings in 40 degree maritime air on strong easterly wind. Another reason we want this offshore low to develop quickly, so the flow can back around to offshore and dynamics can overcome the crap initial airmass. That inverted trough and the too slow development of the low are the main factors that are ruining it near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Winter storm watch is already posted for Sullivan and Deleware county in NY. My latest forecast from NWS is basically a nothing burger. Rain/snow mix. Light snow accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 hours ago, BxEngine said: We looking at the same euro run? What Euro run am I looking at? The Euro shows rain for most of the storm (monday into monday night), and then a little back end snow on tuesday. That map shows a few inches for the NYC area, and when you take ratios into account it would be less than that. An inch or two of slop. Every model shows most of this storm being rain for the NYC area. Hopefully we'll see some changes, but right now it isn't looking great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: What Euro run am I looking at? The Euro shows rain for most of the storm (monday into monday night), and then a little back end snow on tuesday. That map shows a few inches for the NYC area, and when you take ratios into account it would be less than that. An inch or two of slop. Every model shows most of this storm being rain for the NYC area. Hopefully we'll see some changes, but right now it isn't looking great. Not our storm for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: What Euro run am I looking at? The Euro shows rain for most of the storm (monday into monday night), and then a little back end snow on tuesday. That map shows a few inches for the NYC area, and when you take ratios into account it would be less than that. An inch or two of slop. Every model shows most of this storm being rain for the NYC area. Hopefully we'll see some changes, but right now it isn't looking great. Maybe for most of NJ, NYC and LI. Our northern posters would get smacked if that run were correct. That's what he's taking issue with. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Winter storm watch just thrown up for Orange and Putnam counties in NY. 5-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Winter storm watch is already posted for Sullivan and Deleware county in NY I just got a WSW issued here in Dutchess which is surprising because NWS Albany isn't an office that issues advisories/watches well in advance like other offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: I just got a WSW issued here in Dutchess which is surprising because NWS Albany isn't an office that issues advisories/watches well in advance like other offices. This is a really big storm and very good model consensus of a significant snowfall North of I84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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