Winterweatherlover Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Euro slightly north and 1 mb stronger than last run at hour 48. Looks further east and 1 mb weaker at hour 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilsonvoid1 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 euro is a major storm not sure if it's going to snow but that's a big storm on the euro . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Not a good run at all https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023031112&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&m=ecmwf_full 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: Not a good run at all https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023031112&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&m=ecmwf_full Uh ? It just shifted west We need the dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: Uh ? It just shifted west We need the dynamics Looks like it shifted east to me but then I guess hooked west or maybe is confused with the double low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Double barrel low on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: Uh ? It just shifted west We need the dynamics Looks very weird since it chases convection east with one low and the other near the coast. Look at the upper air lows vs what it shows at the surface for dynamics that can kick in for any snow. Multiple lows probably mean just a marginal slop fest. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 HV demolished by the CCB band, it's still a little too far north for NYC https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023031112&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Looks very weird since it chases convection east with one low and the other near the coast. Look at the upper air lows vs what it shows at the surface for dynamics that can kick in for any snow. Multiple lows probably mean just a marginal slop fest. we've seen this chasing the convection scenario before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Wow looks like March 2018 all over again, snow and mix all around the rain in the 5 boroughs https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023031112&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Uh ? It just shifted west We need the dynamics 1 minute ago, mannynyc said: Double barrel low on the Euro Very confusing run. I didn’t notice the western low just the dominate one which was way east at first then hooked toward the cape. I noticed the northern stream dug more as well so was hoping for a better outcome. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 This is all about the trend here for me. The trend is west and colder. That’s a good thing because it could be going the other way. Now we wait for the fine tuning and see how it plays out. There’s still some time on the clock here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Take this map with a grain of salt. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023031112&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Mainly a rainstorm, but some light snows wrap in on tuesday on the Euro. GFS is the only model giving us significant snow. Certainly not the model I want I my side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Very odd run with the wrap-around snow for NYC Metro delayed 12-24 hours from previous runs and other snowy models...look when NJ gets its snow, when the low is near ME! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Mainly a rainstorm, but some light snows wrap in on tuesday on the Euro. GFS is the only model giving us significant snow. Certainly not the model I want I my side. Euro just trended west and south with the H5 low. Great trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 10 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Looks very weird since it chases convection east with one low and the other near the coast. Look at the upper air lows vs what it shows at the surface for dynamics that can kick in for any snow. Multiple lows probably mean just a marginal slop fest. H5 trended south Just a little more and bam 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Very odd run with the wrap-around snow for NYC Metro delayed 12-24 hours from previous runs and other snowy models...look when NJ gets its snow, when the low is near ME! Models are struggling with this - err on the side of less impressive when that happens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 15 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: This is all about the trend here for me. The trend is west and colder. That’s a good thing because it could be going the other way. Now we wait for the fine tuning and see how it plays out. There’s still some time on the clock here. You might be right. The double barrel low showing up on the models today may be in response that they are not done trending towards a more favorable outcome. We’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Big differences between the P-type map and 500MB vorticity on the Euro. Models are struggling with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, mannynyc said: Big differences between the P-type map and 500MB vorticity on the Euro. Models are struggling with this storm. They pretty much struggle with every storm that doesn't cut to the west of us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uniblab Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 7 minutes ago, mannynyc said: Big differences between the P-type map and 500MB vorticity on the Euro. Models are struggling with this storm. What else is new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 37 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro just trended west and south with the H5 low. Great trend Yeah that's good to see. It's a very frustrating forecast as minor changes make all the difference. It definitely feels like March 2001 in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Euro run was good enough to keep me interested but not good enough to make me feel optimistic about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 47 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Mainly a rainstorm, but some light snows wrap in on tuesday on the Euro. GFS is the only model giving us significant snow. Certainly not the model I want I my side. We looking at the same euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, BxEngine said: We looking at the same euro run? Depends on location. It looks like north of I80 it’s a real snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: Euro run was good enough to keep me interested but not good enough to make me feel optimistic about this. GFS is able to pull it off but we need a pretty substantial SW shift in the developing dynamics and upper low track in the other models to be confident of wintry impact in NYC. I’d give it a 10% chance of an advisory event or greater in the city but can’t be written off yet. Don I’m sure has better stats for what the ensembles show. Expect rain and then be thrilled with a better outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Euro run was good enough to keep me interested but not good enough to make me feel optimistic about this. I’d sign for it as is right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah that's good to see. It's a very frustrating forecast as minor changes make all the difference. It definitely feels like March 2001 in that regard. Eps also trended west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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