Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: Is the trend our friend? We are still a few days away. The 12z runs were way better than the 0Z runs so for now yes, could still change a lot in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 This storm has 3/14/17 part 2, written all over it. At least I won’t be disappointed by my 4 inches of slop this time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 The Ukie & Euro were nice but 5 days is an eternity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Lack of a high/cold air source is an issue but I would have thought a storm of that strength at the benchmark would generate enough of its own cold air to keep it mostly snow at the coast...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Still hate 10:1 maps in this setup. Do Pivotal 10:1 maps count sleet as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The Ukie & Euro were nice but 5 days is an eternity I’m pretty confident gfs is wrong about barely any storm. Beyond that I don’t know what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 26 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Cannot ask for a much more juiced system. This would be a widespread 18"+ about 40 miles inland. Absolute bomb for up here. Even gives us 4-6” this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Lack of a high/cold air source is an issue but I would have thought a storm of that strength at the benchmark would generate enough of its own cold air to keep it mostly snow at the coast...? A track and intensity that the Euro just depicted should have showed a colder solution. Of course I’m just talking hypothetically. Lots of scenarios on the board still. We continue to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 11 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Lack of a high/cold air source is an issue but I would have thought a storm of that strength at the benchmark would generate enough of its own cold air to keep it mostly snow at the coast...? Yes it would it would snow down to Atlantic City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 11 minutes ago, snywx said: Absolute bomb for up here. Even gives us 4-6” this weekend I do believe the QPF for Friday night/ Saturday event is in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Eps is similiar 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps is similiar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 26 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: This storm has 3/14/17 part 2, written all over it. At least I won’t be disappointed by my 4 inches of slop this time 4 inches of slop that is still there at the end is better than the 4 inches on 3/14/07 that washed away in 2 hours. I’d rather have rain to snow than other way around. Can’t write this off here yet but this could be an epic week for the Catskills. I’m resigned to this winter ending in one more giant fail so I’m fine with it. Bring on spring. The flowers already blooming are raring to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 14 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: I do believe the QPF for Friday night/ Saturday event is in there too. Yeah euro gives us around 6” for the weekend and 12-18” for early next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps is similiar Do you have the snowfall mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 29 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yes it would it would snow down to Atlantic City. It would change to snow down to ACY but places near the coast could lose a lot of qpf to rain at first. I think we have to consider that as a reasonable possibility. If it’s a euro level bomb though could also legit backend snow 1-3 inch/hour rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps is similiar Not great. Op is much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Of course I will be in Florida next week when all of this stuff is happening 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Not great. Op is much better But moved to the op 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 37 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: I do believe the QPF for Friday night/ Saturday event is in there too. Nope the posted qpf maps before were all for storm 2 (didn't include the first storm). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 23 minutes ago, snywx said: Yeah euro gives us around 6” for the weekend and 12-18” for early next week Hopefully both aren’t paste jobs. Especially with the 2nd event if there’s a wind factor thrown in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, hudsonvalley21 said: Hopefully both aren’t paste jobs. Especially with the 2nd event if there’s a wind factor thrown in there. 3+ inches of qpf for the HV of mostly snow from the two storms. Probably too good to be true but should be a fun week up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: 3+ inches of qpf for the HV of mostly snow from the two storms. Probably too good to be true but should be a fun week up there. Agree, let’s see what the next few runs show. And see if the GFS comes aboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 This is a rare case where NYC can do better than SNE if the storm takes the right track...it would be fitting in this winter to see something odd like that happen 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 hour ago, ILoveWinter said: Lack of a high/cold air source is an issue but I would have thought a storm of that strength at the benchmark would generate enough of its own cold air to keep it mostly snow at the coast...? Not in mid March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This is a rare case where NYC can do better than SNE if the storm takes the right track...it would be fitting in this winter to see something odd like that happen Have to factor in urban heat island and mid March, I would be shocked at anything more than a few inches, which will be like an HECS this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: This is a rare case where NYC can do better than SNE if the storm takes the right track...it would be fitting in this winter to see something odd like that happen Yea it's rare but it can happen. I'll never forget that Feb '10 storm (I think?) where NYC was being dumped on and Boston was raining in the 50s. That track was so insane that the rain/snow line was north/south oriented so even places north but just east of NYC saw mixing or even rain (I was living in Armonk which is northeast of NYC and I remember that for a time it was mixing while NYC was snowing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 32 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: It would change to snow down to ACY but places near the coast could lose a lot of qpf to rain at first. I think we have to consider that as a reasonable possibility. If it’s a euro level bomb though could also legit backend snow 1-3 inch/hour rates. Right, I expect no more than 4 - 6 for the city and coast, but even that would be historic for this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, ILoveWinter said: Yea it's rare but it can happen. I'll never forget that Feb '10 storm (I think?) where NYC was being dumped on and Boston was raining in the 50s. That track was so insane that the rain/snow line was north/south oriented so even places north but just east of NYC saw mixing or even rain (I was living in Armonk which is northeast of NYC and I remember that for a time it was mixing while NYC was snowing). Big difference between late February and mid March. But yes Boston can get 1-3 while NYC gets 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 50 minutes ago, jm1220 said: 4 inches of slop that is still there at the end is better than the 4 inches on 3/14/07 that washed away in 2 hours. I’d rather have rain to snow than other way around. Can’t write this off here yet but this could be an epic week for the Catskills. I’m resigned to this winter ending in one more giant fail so I’m fine with it. Bring on spring. The flowers already blooming are raring to go. This is exactly what I was thinking! It actually reminds me of March 2001 in some ways. 4-5 inches of back end snow is what would be the high end of the potential for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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