EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Nam not so different from the GFS...in tuck and snowfall outputs. So maybe it's the Americans vs. the world. Euro can be the tie breaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 The CMC is almost a split between the UKMET and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilsonvoid1 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 What happen to this model? it showed 12-15 inches for NyC just two days ago. Terrible model. I guess the trend is no snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 31 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Correct. Really dynamic systems like this with potential intense handing is hard to nail down. Snow maps should be taken with a grain of salt. It's more like 7:1 or 8:1 tops. Just to be on the cautious side, I halve the totals of those models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: GRAIN OF SALT (10 to 1). Good not for totals but for QPF and distribution and location. Increased by a decent amount from 6z. It all depends on where the bands set up. Yeah like that one has twice as much on Long Island as in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 38 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The upper air system on the GGEM is not matured so there is not a mechanism to spread snow/precip well west of the center. Note on the 500mb chart how the flow is from the SSE mainly near the low, and the closed low is well west of it. Can you illustrate that difference? Not an expert on upper air patterns, thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 UKMET and lesser extent CMC has all the dynamic east. GFS west with the enhanced trough. Let's see what EURO does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 13 minutes ago, RU848789 said: UK way east with limited precip for NJ, except near the coast and into NYC, with most of the precip NE of NYC; also too warm for snow for the 95 corridor... An inch of liquid still woulda been a foot of snow if we had a cold airmass meh or got a track like this in Jan/Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Forgot to mention need that to bomb out earlier than the CMC and UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: An inch of liquid still woulda been a foot of snow if we had a cold airmass meh. You need the heavy band over you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, wilsonvoid1 said: What happen to this model? it showed 12-15 inches for NyC just two days ago. Terrible model. I guess the trend is no snow . Some people think it's a good model but all I see is flip flopping run to run and questionable thermals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: You need the heavy band over you. Yea and in this storm NYC realistically needs 2 inch plus qpf for something big because at least half of it is likely rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Some people think it's a good model but all I see is flip flopping run to run and questionable thermals. Don’t care too much about it’s thermals but the east track is a problem, without heavy banding NYC has no chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: Don’t care too much about it’s thermals but the east track is a problem, without heavy banding NYC has no chance. I was speaking in general terms, not just this storm. I don't trust that model. Actually I don't trust any 1 model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I was speaking in general terms, not just this storm. I don't trust that model. Actually I don't trust any 1 model. It’s not perfect but the RGEM usually isn’t way off and if anytung is usually too warm so it’s a good model to rule in snow chances if it shows somehung good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Trends are good but things still need to go perfectly for the City to really get in. This is by far our best chance of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: It’s not perfect but the RGEM usually isn’t way off and if anytung is usually too warm so it’s a good model to rule in snow chances if it shows somehung good. That model hasn't been that great either. It's usually too warm and too light on precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 GEFS ensembles look great though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: That model hasn't been that great either. It's usually too warm and too light on precip. Yes it’s usually too warm and dry hence why I like to use it to increase confidence if it shows something positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, mannynyc said: GEFS ensembles look great though Some big hits in there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah at this point would ignore the snow maps will drive you crazy. Looking at too many model runs will drive you crazy lol. If euro looks like gfs I’d say we have a real shot, if not it’s looking pretty bleak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 20 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Yea and in this storm NYC realistically needs 2 inch plus qpf for something big because at least half of it is likely rain. yup such is the nature of very marginal late season events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tristateweatherFB Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Some big hits in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 39 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Can you illustrate that difference? Not an expert on upper air patterns, thanks... Notice here at 72hrs when the low is SE of Montauk, the direction of the 500mb flow. The low is about to mature but the flow is generally out of the SE. That doesn't really allow a mature CCB/comma head to develop and spread snow well west of the low. We want all this to happen sooner. The focus of the moist feed is into New England. Here by 78hr the 500mb low is closed off and there's a mature CCB with moisture being brought west around the closed low. From here the surface low stacks and starts to weaken since there is no longer a way to evacuate air aloft over top of the low. But see how where it closes off is a great spot for interior New England. We want that 75 miles SSW or so. The crashing upper air heights as you can see there also brings cold air down to the surface. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Ima hug the GFS. Straight up. Nothing to lose! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Notice here at 72hrs when the low is SE of Montauk, the direction of the 500mb flow. The low is about to mature but the flow is generally out of the SE. That doesn't really allow a mature CCB/comma head to develop and spread snow well west of the low. We want all this to happen sooner. The focus of the moist feed is into New England. Here by 78hr the 500mb low is closed off and there's a mature CCB with moisture being brought west around the closed low. From here the surface low stacks and starts to weaken since there is no longer a way to evacuate air aloft over top of the low. But see how where it closes off is a great spot for interior New England. We want that 75 miles SSW or so. The crashing upper air heights as you can see there also brings cold air down to the surface. I love stacked lows because it means we no longer have to deal with a pesky warm layer and it's going to be all snow as long as you're west of the surface low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Another way to look at it-the 700mb low and vertical velocity (lift). Notice how it is well placed for New England because these dynamics get going a little too late for NYC. You want to be just NW of the 700mb low to get into the really good/intense banding. Here's 72hr 78hr-at this point we're probably getting some wraparound snow around the closed/stacked upper low but you can see overall the lift is weakening because the low is stacked. We can see clearly how we want this dynamic happening sooner/SW for our subforum. It's the problem we have all the time with these late developing Miller B type lows. But this is the GGEM outcome, GFS was more favorable. And before 72hr we're too warm in the preceding airmass, and we don't get the benefit of strong lift/dynamics to help overcome it unless you're inland and above probably 500-600ft. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Another way to look at it-the 700mb low and vertical velocity (lift). Notice how it is well placed for New England because these dynamics get going a little too late for NYC. You want to be just NW of the 700mb low to get into the really good/intense banding. Here's 72hr 78hr-at this point we're probably getting some wraparound snow around the closed/stacked upper low but you can see overall the lift is weakening because the low is stacked. We can see clearly how we want this dynamic happening sooner/SW for our subforum. It's the problem we have all the time with these late developing Miller B type lows. But this is the GGEM outcome, GFS was more favorable. And before 72hr we're too warm in the preceding airmass, and we don't get the benefit of strong lift/dynamics to help overcome it unless you're inland and above probably 500-600ft. Great analysis! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keno19 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 too far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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