EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, romba said: Vastly different snow maps- Tidbits 10:1 GFS snow map versus Pivotal 10:1 Yeah at this point would ignore the snow maps will drive you crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 CMC looking similar to the GFS through 0Z Tues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, RU848789 said: CMC looking similar to the GFS through 18Z Mon... Yes so far digging northern stream further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 GFS FTW BABY!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, RU848789 said: CMC looking similar to the GFS through 0Z Tues... Seems stuck on hour 60 but also has two lows now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, RU848789 said: CMC looking similar to the GFS through 0Z Tues... Big jump in that direction but it gets going just a little too late for us. We need that northern stream to dive in quicker like the GFS shows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Cmc not gonna do it for us this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Cmc kind of weird. It's west of gfs but very little precip west of center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 CMC ends in the same location as the GFS. Difference is the GFS intensifies the trough band while the CMC dissipates it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Wonder how many people will be closely watching the EURO run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Odd, surface low is closer to us on the CMC, but has no precip at all over NJ during the time where the GFS is hammering us despite being further away (same SLP). I'm not a met, so can't explain that one, lol (maybe less NS interaction?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, binbisso said: Cmc kind of weird. It's west of gfs but very little precip west of center exactly - see my post with the SLP/precip graphics... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, binbisso said: Cmc kind of weird. It's west of gfs but very little precip west of center The northern stream comes in too late. You need it to happen while it's near the NC coast. Two things can fix that. Stronger SE Canada ridging or stronger ridging out west. Euro should be interesting. It was already closer to a hit than other models so it'll be interesting to see if it trends towards the GFS on that regard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, RU848789 said: Odd, surface low is closer to us on the CMC, but has no precip at all over NJ during the time where the GFS is hammering us despite being further away (same SLP). I'm not a met, so can't explain that one, lol (maybe less NS interaction?) It's the old trough. GFS enhances it while the CMC dissipates/consolidates it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, RU848789 said: exactly - see my post with the SLP/precip graphics... You would think a bombing low South of Long Island would have a greater precipitation field further West 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The northern stream comes in too late. You need it to happen while it's near the NC coast. Two things can fix that. Stronger SE Canada ridging or stronger ridging out west. Euro should be interesting. It was already closer to a hit than other models so it'll be interesting to see if it trends towards the GFS on that regard. Yes. This is Such a delicate set up for us. Right now it seems like Connecticut away from the shore seems like the place to be for this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Odd, surface low is closer to us on the CMC, but has no precip at all over NJ during the time where the GFS is hammering us despite being further away (same SLP). I'm not a met, so can't explain that one, lol (maybe less NS interaction?) The upper air system on the GGEM is not matured so there is not a mechanism to spread snow/precip well west of the center. Note on the 500mb chart how the flow is from the SSE mainly near the low, and the closed low is well west of it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Trends are our friends. If Euro holds serve coming up that will certainly be a positive sign that this one is the real deal.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Vastly different snow maps- Tidbits 10:1 GFS snow map versus Pivotal 10:1Shouldn’t use 10:1 period imo . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, anthonyweather said: Shouldn’t use 10:1 period imo . Correct. Really dynamic systems like this with potential intense handing is hard to nail down. Snow maps should be taken with a grain of salt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 19 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Odd, surface low is closer to us on the CMC, but has no precip at all over NJ during the time where the GFS is hammering us despite being further away (same SLP). I'm not a met, so can't explain that one, lol (maybe less NS interaction?) Cmc seems to be focusing on eastern low, gfs on the western one. Could go either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 33 minutes ago, romba said: Vastly different snow maps- Tidbits 10:1 GFS snow map versus Pivotal 10:1 Tropical Tidbits has issues with depicting snow accumulations for Long Island and parts of the City. I think this partly explains the difference between the two maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 FWIW the GEFS snow mean increased across the area from 6z. 6 inch line goes through central LI 3 inch line through central NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 GRAIN OF SALT (10 to 1). Good not for totals but for QPF and distribution and location. Increased by a decent amount from 6z. It all depends on where the bands set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 6z for comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Also for the above see the west shift from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Pretty much nothing on the UKMET. Just a little snow for Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 12z Ukie not on board for nyc snow, gfs kind of on its own right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard Hunter Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: 12z Ukie not on board for nyc snow, gfs kind of on its own right now. I'm confused, didn't CMC, GFS and NAM all show a western shift with a little earlier NS interaction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 UK way east with limited precip for NJ, except near the coast and into NYC, with most of the precip NE of NYC; also too warm for snow for the 95 corridor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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