EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: Same old same old always tough at the coast. The latest runs actually look a little better for LI but who knows. I’m still not expecting much of anything at this point. I’m tired of expectations being disappointed so I expect nothing and will be surprised if we get snow. What stinks is if this deepened stalled and looped like 1888, 1978 this would have been 15 plus for CPK and LI. It all happens too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 This is the track needed for LI and NYC. This storm does it north and over land. Obviously just showing track 1888 was wayyyyyyy more intense. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: What stinks is if this deepened stalled and looped like 1888, 1978 this would have been 15 plus for CPK and LI. It all happens too late The winter of what ifs. Everything that can go wrong has basically gone wrong. Only one storm on 2/28 sorta worked out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: The winter of what ifs. Everything that can go wrong has basically gone wrong. Only one storm on 2/28 sorta worked out. Yeah it's definitely been a major dud. Possibly least snowy of all time! Happy it's almost behind us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: This is the track needed for LI and NYC. This storm does it north and over land. Obviously just showing track 1888 was wayyyyyyy more intense. Agree that’s the track we need in case and maybe even more crucial earlier intensification. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 EPS ensembles: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Friendly reminder…if you have declared the threat dead….no one is holding a gun to your head to continue posting in this thread. I dont think i need to explain any further than that. 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 The threat for snow in some areas may or may not happen. The intensity of this storm, however, may produce other threats, like very strong winds and coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 EPS ensembles:I think you’d sign on the dotted line for 4 inches right now at CPK if you were a betting man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, Jaguars said: I think you’d sign on the dotted line for 4 inches right now at CPK if you were a betting man . True. I would accept any snowfall in this miserable winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 45 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: What stinks is if this deepened stalled and looped like 1888, 1978 this would have been 15 plus for CPK and LI. It all happens too late But it's normal for it to happen late. That's why March 1888 and February 1978 were once in a century events. We really need to name them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: True. I would accept any snowfall in this miserable winter. I have a hard time believing it will even be 2" Is this going to be it for the season Don? I noticed the storm for next weekend has trended warmer, so maybe this will be the last for the accumulating snow after the 14th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: NYC, LI and coastal NJ will be tough, however like you mentioned intensifying a bit further south and closer and the aforementioned locations can get accumulating snow. Massive massive potential for 84. See, I don't need snow to experience a massive historic storm. The most impressive ones actually don't have any snow with them (or very little snow at all.) December 1992 will always go down in my mind as the greatest coastal storm of all time for this area. What's going to happen on Tuesday can be historic without a single flake of snow being seen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I have a hard time believing it will even be 2" Is this going to be it for the season Don? I noticed the storm for next weekend has trended warmer, so maybe this will be the last for the accumulating snow after the 14th? There’s still considerable uncertainty now that Tuesday-Wednesday is the period in question. By sometime tomorrow there should be a better idea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 7 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: When it's this close it's over until it's over. The ECMWF which last run had the low near Boston now has it over Cape Cod which is an improvement. It also intensifies further south, also an improvement over last run. And on Wednesday it moves away extremely slowly and there would probably be, if these maps are correct, precipitation rotating around the storm's center back into parts of the NYC Metro from the north and east until around mid-day. WX/PT Actually does remind me of a somewhat less strong and less duration version of December 1992. That one lasted for 3 days with high winds and heavy rain which changed to snow on the last day to give us 1-2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 The problem we have is even the Euro is way too warm at 925 for most of the event as was posted in the SNE forum (you can see maps there on recent pages) you'd basically not snow here til roughly 78 hours or so. No question the more SRN stream this trends the more likely we see big snows here. You might see models move hard one way or the other at 12 or 00Z today now that everything is onshore 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 We always have this one to look forward too LOL Obviously the only model showing this BUT the air mass is much colder at this time. The way this year has gone it will be suppressed like the GFS is showing. Sorry if this belongs in the March thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, EastonSN+ said: We always have this one to look forward too LOL Obviously the only model showing this BUT the air mass is much colder at this time. The way this year has gone it will be suppressed like the GFS is showing. Sorry if this belongs in the March thread. Much colder huh-- all the forecasts I looked at for beyond next weekend had temps in the 50s lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Much colder huh-- all the forecasts I looked at for beyond next weekend had temps in the 50s lol Yes much colder. It's not just the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Yes much colder. It's not just the surface. Yeah probably good for the mountains, no way it would snow here or in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, LibertyBell said: Yeah probably good for the mountains, no way it would snow here or in the city. Yes it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: See, I don't need snow to experience a massive historic storm. The most impressive ones actually don't have any snow with them (or very little snow at all.) December 1992 will always go down in my mind as the greatest coastal storm of all time for this area. What's going to happen on Tuesday can be historic without a single flake of snow being seen here. That was a very destructive storm and I cannot root for anything that bad. We were stuck in the school and I had a classroom full of 7th graders with no power and a school district that wouldn't let out early. Ugh. The boats in the marinas were all over the place. We lose sight sometimes just how bad these things can be if flooding is involved, something we can usually avoid in snowstorms. I would not want a driving, flooding rainstorm at this point. Have mercy. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, LibertyBell said: I know about that, but that very rarely happens this late in the season...that is more likely in January and February. Don posted something on that yesterday, about how you need colder temps in March to get accumulating snow than what you need in January and February. I will let a red taggers explain in more detail but you have to look at more than the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: I know about that, but that very rarely happens this late in the season...that is more likely in January and February. Don posted something on that yesterday, about how you need colder temps in March to get accumulating snow than what you need in January and February. Today is a good example down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, EastonSN+ said: I will let a red taggers explain in more detail but you have to look at more than the surface. Well I can only go by own experience why we don't get wet snow bombs at 36 degrees here this late in the season. What usually happens is it sticks when it's falling hard and as soon as the rates lighten up, whatever fell melts. That has happened 100% of the time here in all sorts of winters this late in the season. Including ones much colder than this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, LibertyBell said: Well I can only go by own experience why we don't get wet snow bombs at 36 degrees here this late in the season. What usually happens is it sticks when it's falling hard and as soon as the rates lighten up, whatever fell melts. That has happened 100% of the time here in all sorts of winters this late in the season. Including ones much colder than this one. We can agree to disagree so we do not clog the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 12Z NAM further SE with the low. Don’t think it will be as tucked in this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Hey good morning.. just a quick question as to what time the precip, regardless of type, will be moving in on Monday. We have a big clean out on Monday and just wondering if the bad weather will hold off ..thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 New NAM @ hour 75, Nuke, still snowing for much of the region with 2.0"+ QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 12Z NAM further SE with the low. Don’t think it will be as tucked in this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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