March 13-14th Nor'easter Threat

[jayyy]

FRAME 2…. BOOM

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, jayyy said:

This is a prime example of the Euro’s bias providing NYC with a heartbreaking mirage in the mid range (D4-5) We have seen this song and dance before over the years with these setups. This setup mimics almost every other previous Miller B fail for NYC proper and points SW. It’s not impossible, but so much needs to go right for DC BAL PHL and NYC to score big in a NS driven Miller b setup.

A NS driven miller B plays directly into the Euro’s over-amplification bias. It’s tendency to blow up lows too quickly / far west is why it showed a biggie, even for the lowlands. In reality, a NS driven Miller B is more likely to develop just too far east due to how far north the primary gets and the angle at which the NS digs leading in.

If this were a SS driven setup, BAL to BOS would be getting crushed with a metropolis wide foot +. The wave 3 threat (St Paddy’s) and wave 4 (march 20-22nd) has always been the better window due to the NS’s influence being quelled. The ensembles showed this pretty clearly earlier today. The longwave pattern is nearly identical as the 13-14th, except those 2 waves form in a SS driven regime, allowing the coastals to develop earlier and the precip shield to expand / strengthen in time for the metros to cash in.

It’s not impossible to cash in, but the NAM GFS Euro RGEM etc. are trending the wrong way for a reason.

Excellent post but if this (likely) doesn't work out I'm just done. If something happens on 3/20-22 great, but unfortunately the calendar ticking later means more has to go right for anything substantial, and time and again "great pattern" gets ruined by some turd. This is another Nina strikes again situation with the northern stream driven system messing things up, lousy/progressive western ridge placement, etc. Exactly why New England/upstate NY often do perfectly fine in well coupled Nina winters but it gets so much harder from this latitude and south. Albany isn't far below normal for snow and Central Park is sitting at 2.3". With this Albany has a shot at hitting 60"+ on the season (has 41.9 now) while NYC sits at the same pathetic 2.3". 

My money now is on the too late development vs too early it was seeming yesterday and before. 

[jayyy]

The setup for the 14th…. A Pacific trough, some riding popping out west, -NAO, and a 50/50. Prime setup right? Yes…. except for one thing. That pesky feature marked X. It ruins things. Why? It’s a NS wave running nearly parallel with the SS wave. For this to work, X needs to lead Y in the flow and dig. X was not present on most models over the past week (like on the GFS / GEFS,) and that’s why it showed the desired outcome for NYC. It’s now catching up the the reality of a NS driven Miller B sadly.

[jayyy]

Now let’s look at the wave around the 20th… VERY similar longwave setup, except there’s no NS feature to over-complicate things. Instead, we are left with a robust SS wave that can run underneath and blow up early. What you’re left with is tonight’s 00z Canadian. A storm that develops and blows up off the SE coast and runs up the coastline. It seems like a small difference in the grand scheme of things, but it has massive implications downstream. If the 17th and 21st waves have the above setup at H5, we’re in business. The fail risk is the timing (late march versus early to mid march) but it’s feasible. The NS is destroying this 14th threat for NYC and points SW.

[Winterweatherlover]

I guess I have to accept this one is over. Its a tough one to swallow when the potential was really there. 

[MJO812]

Euro is west

 

Very close

[mannynyc]

[KeithB]

34 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I guess I have to accept this one is over. Its a tough one to swallow when the potential was really there. 

Same routine all winter. It's like being in a groundhog day movie nightmare. I honestly cannot take it anymore, and Monday afternoon, I am probably going to take a drive and get a hotel in a favored area to our north that looks to be in the 12 to 24 inch band. I'll probably take a walk through it, and go for a showshoe hike somewhere in it (I did this for a 2018 big snowstorm in North Conway NH). Went snowshoe hiking Champney Falls off the Kancamagus highway). It was amazing! I highly recommend this trip, and anywhere in general travelling for a storm if your time/job/family situation allows. 

Happily, this one looks to be much less travelling. Looks like something in western Massachusetts in the Berkshires which I am sure has some fantastic spots. And if the bullseye winds up being southern Vermont, or Western Connecticut, I am sure those areas will have a great spot for this adventure too. Should be a 2:15 drive at worst. 

I cannot keep dealing with these same pathetic outcomes on these, "events" that our areas are experiencing. Sitting here typing this as I hear the moderate rain fall outside. It's sickening

 

 

[KeithB]

3 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

Wow. Maybe this trip that I just ranted about taking will be much closer then a 2:15 drive. Might be more like 30 minutes. lol. Or maybe there is a miracle of god and Rockland County actually hits a big snowstorm and I can stay home! 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

5 minutes ago, KeithB said:

Wow. Maybe this trip that I just ranted about taking will be much closer then a 2:15 drive. Might be more like 30 minutes. lol. Or maybe there is a miracle of god and Rockland County actually hits a big snowstorm and I can stay home! 

When it's this close it's over until it's over. The ECMWF which last run had the low near Boston now has it over Cape Cod which is an improvement. It also intensifies further south, also an improvement over last run. And on Wednesday it moves away extremely slowly and there would probably be, if these maps are correct, precipitation rotating around the storm's center back into parts of the NYC Metro from the north and east until around mid-day.

WX/PT

[KeithB]

2 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

When it's this close it's over until it's over. The ECMWF which last run had the low near Boston now has it over Cape Cod which is an improvement. It also intensifies further south, also an improvement over last run.

WX/PT

Yes. You are right. We certainly have a shot! But you know the routine, there is a real good shot that by Sunday's model runs, our NYC metro area, and the nearby suburbs within 25 miles either direction is looking at a very frustrating miss.

It's starting to look like a near certainty that some area/areas within 100 miles from us is going to get absolutely bombed with 18+ inches. Don't ya think?

And yes, it's still in play that that area can still be in our areas

[jdj5211]

It’s somewhat close but I suggest setting yourself up for a letdown and hoping to be pleasantly surprised when tomorrow’s model runs paint a better picture for us. We’ve seen big swings within 48-72 hours but that’s about it. We’re on life support here. 

[SnowGoose69]

8 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

When it's this close it's over until it's over. The ECMWF which last run had the low near Boston now has it over Cape Cod which is an improvement. It also intensifies further south, also an improvement over last run. And on Wednesday it moves away extremely slowly and there would probably be, if these maps are correct, precipitation rotating around the storm's center back into parts of the NYC Metro from the north and east until around mid-day.

WX/PT

Its just way more southern stream involved but the general tendency is GFS better with NRN stream/EC better with southern...not sure which is right but no question Euro is sort of on its own right now

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Its just way more southern stream involved but the general tendency is GFS better with NRN stream/EC better with southern...not sure which is right but no question Euro is sort of on its own right now

Nam is even further west 

[mannynyc]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam is even further west 

Long range NAM is a joke.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, mannynyc said:

Long range NAM is a joke.

 

This setup is probably too convoluted for the NAM to get it right at this range.  

[snowman19]

Long range NAM is a joke.

The NAM sucks. This storm has I-84 north special written all over it. I think there’s going to be little accumulation south of 84. Mostly a rain event in the NYC metro

[wilsonvoid1]

NAM 6z is a major hit for us way colder and occluded right on time. i don't get it


.

[SnoSki14]

Nam is likely wrong but these tucked in solutions have had merit over the past few years.

It wouldn't take much for models to shift to a more tucked in solution.

[snowman19]

NAM 6z is a major hit for us way colder and occluded right on time. i don't get it


.

Throw it in the trash. Not even worth looking at that model at 84 hours, it’s even dreadful at 36 hours

[wilsonvoid1]

Throw it in the trash. Not even worth looking at that model at 84 hours, it’s even dreadful at 36 hours

I agree it's over. NAM meso model sucks, and ICON has got to be by far the worst model out of all of them. Even worse than nam i think. sad winter not even a 6 inch snow event makes me sad after all this waiting around and checking all the models every day. pffff shut it down


.

[SnoSki14]

GFS with an amped move there. Pretty big shift from run to run 

Our friend the SE Canada ridge is trending stronger which normally causes inland runners however in this instance could help us out. 

[jayyy]

The JMA is almost laughable at this point. We’re talking about being a mere 48-72 hours out from the most important part of the evolution of the 14th storm.

Check this out… here’s 48hr. We have a low down along the GULF states

[jayyy]

At hour 72 (12 hour intervals on the JMA) we have a tucked in low south of Long Island. One can only infer that the JMA tracked that low in Georgia up the coastline. (Miller A style)

[jayyy]

The above QPF map is the result…. .5”-1” QPF from North Carolina through DC, Baltimore, philly… 1”+ in ENJ, NYC, and SNE and damn near 1.75” for LI

Completely different evolution than every other model. I know it’s a trash model but good lord. 6z GFS by comparison gives the mid Atlantic near Virginia and Maryland 0.1 of QPF.

Crazy how it can be so wrong only 2 days out. Perhaps it’s a lack of data.

[EastonSN+]

5 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

When it's this close it's over until it's over. The ECMWF which last run had the low near Boston now has it over Cape Cod which is an improvement. It also intensifies further south, also an improvement over last run. And on Wednesday it moves away extremely slowly and there would probably be, if these maps are correct, precipitation rotating around the storm's center back into parts of the NYC Metro from the north and east until around mid-day.

WX/PT

NYC, LI and coastal NJ will be tough, however like you mentioned intensifying a bit further south and closer and the aforementioned locations can get accumulating snow.

Massive massive potential for 84.

[MJO812]

Gfs shifted west 

[weatherpruf]

17 minutes ago, jayyy said:

The above QPF map is the result…. .5”-1” QPF from North Carolina through DC, Baltimore, philly… 1”+ in ENJ, NYC, and SNE and damn near 1.75” for LI

Completely different evolution than every other model. I know it’s a trash model but good lord. 6z GFS by comparison gives the mid Atlantic near Virginia and Maryland 0.1 of QPF.

Crazy how it can be so wrong only 2 days out. Perhaps it’s a lack of data.

You have to consider what is likely to happen in this region at this time of year, and in a winter where it just doesn't want to snow. Smart money is we can all start prepping the soil. Already did. Some things that are red flags you will see in comments: " it will bring its own cold air", " there will be backend snow", "it's really close""it can snow til April "( July for certain folks here, and I love em all, don't get me wrong, even the ones that are mean to me ). Nonetheless, i'd like to see something happen as much as the next guy. 

[lee59]

CMC, GFS and Euro all have very intense Nor'easter off our shores now. Could be real interesting. If there was more cold air in place, might have been a good snowstorm from DC to Boston.

[Winterweatherlover]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

NYC, LI and coastal NJ will be tough, however like you mentioned intensifying a bit further south and closer and the aforementioned locations can get accumulating snow.

Massive massive potential for 84.

Same old same old always tough at the coast. The latest runs actually look a little better for LI but who knows. I’m still not expecting much of anything at this point. I’m tired of expectations being disappointed so I expect nothing and will be surprised if we get snow.