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March 13-14th Nor'easter Threat

NJwx85

By NJwx85,
in New York City Metro

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Rjay
Rjay

I literally could do this all day dude. 

NorthShoreWx
NorthShoreWx

Earlier before the snow started sticking, I created the ultimate weenie snowboard.  It worked quite well:  

snowman19
snowman19

It’s actually a revolutionary idea called “changing my mind”. After the Euro’s wretched performance this winter, I’d say it’s equally as horrible. You change with the times my man. Things change…. Hap

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Tatamy

Tatamy

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

Oh yes, the track is what we want....just need it to bomb out sooner and filter in colder air...90% of NJ would be all rain with the majority of NW NJ...overall positive direction but its also the NAM at the end of its range

Odds are this will be the best run those of us in the NYC region (except to the north) will see tonight if the globals continue their recent trends.

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Wxoutlooksblog

Wxoutlooksblog

Posted
Posted

If what the NAM shows tonight were the final track most of the NYC Metro Region would see little if any snow. Maybe a period of rain/sleet/snow mix at the start and then just heavy rain. The low hasn't even begun to bomb out as the European has repeatedly indicated it would and it's tucked into the NJ coastline. Not good. But the NAM's accuracy range is about 6 hours and we are a long ways off from that.

WX/PT

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jdj5211

jdj5211

Posted
Posted
Just now, Wxoutlooksblog said:

If what the NAM shows tonight were the final track most of the NYC Metro Region would see little if any snow. Maybe a period of rain/sleet/snow mix at the start and then just heavy rain. The low hasn't even begun to bomb out as the European has repeatedly indicated it would and it's tucked into the NJ coastline. Not good. But the NAM's accuracy range is about 6 hours and we are a long ways off from that.

WX/PT

I laughed out loud haha

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mannynyc

mannynyc

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

If what the NAM shows tonight were the final track most of the NYC Metro Region would see little if any snow. Maybe a period of rain/sleet/snow mix at the start and then just heavy rain. The low hasn't even begun to bomb out as the European has repeatedly indicated it would and it's tucked into the NJ coastline. Not good. But the NAM's accuracy range is about 6 hours and we are a long ways off from that.

WX/PT

The low over NYC screams rain for the Metro

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Winterweatherlover

Winterweatherlover

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

NAM is super tucked along the NJ shore....rain rain go away....

In this case most of us want it to tuck, theres no cold air supply so we are dependent on the storm and the CCB band smashing the area. The more tucked runs seem to actually be snowier. Too far west obviously would be a problem but right now we need a bit of a west shift on the globals.  

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wilsonvoid1

wilsonvoid1

Posted
Posted
In this case most of us want it to tuck, theres no cold air supply so we are dependent on the storm and the CCB band smashing the area. The more tucked runs seem to actually be snowier. Too far west obviously would be a problem but right now we need a bit of a west shift on the globals.  

that actually makes sense, it would be more dynamic and we'd get the CCB at the end of the storm. So you're telling me there's a chance but when was the last time NAM scored a coup? January 2016?


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Wxoutlooksblog

Wxoutlooksblog

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

In this case most of us want it to tuck, theres no cold air supply so we are dependent on the storm and the CCB band smashing the area. The more tucked runs seem to actually be snowier. Too far west obviously would be a problem but right now we need a bit of a west shift on the globals.  

I would not entirely agree that there's no cold air supply. The cold is not extreme and it is marginal but to say there's no cold air supply is wrong. There is a HP system wrapped around the Norlun signature trough and that HP is marginally cold enough. In addition, if the low is as tucked as NAM shows you'll see a period of east southeasterly winds off of the relatively warm ocean causing temperatures to rise into the 40s. If you get that and then dynamic cooling you're not going to cool enough in the NYC Metro to see accumulating snow until it's too late, maybe not even then.

WX/PT

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Winterweatherlover

Winterweatherlover

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I would not entirely agree that there's no cold air supply. The cold is not extreme and it is marginal but to say there's no cold air supply is wrong. There is a HP system wrapped around the Norlun signature trough and that HP is marginally cold enough. In addition, if the low is as tucked as NAM shows you'll see a period of east southeasterly winds off of the relatively warm ocean causing temperatures to rise into the 40s. If you get that and then dynamic cooling you're not going to cool enough in the NYC Metro to see accumulating snow until it's too late, maybe not even then.

WX/PT

Its a tough call and I would defer to you as a meterologist but how come then it seems the models that are closer to the coast are snowier closer to NYC while the models further east have less snow?   

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Wannabehippie

Wannabehippie

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

If what the NAM shows tonight were the final track most of the NYC Metro Region would see little if any snow. Maybe a period of rain/sleet/snow mix at the start and then just heavy rain. The low hasn't even begun to bomb out as the European has repeatedly indicated it would and it's tucked into the NJ coastline. Not good. But the NAM's accuracy range is about 6 hours and we are a long ways off from that.

WX/PT

Laugh reaction because of the bolded

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

CMC gives hope?

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023031100&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

 

NVM low ends up too far east to really allow the dynamics to take over for NYC.   

Hope for SNE on that run? Absolutely. For us near the city/coast? We’re completely screwed because of the low bombing too late and east. We need it to bomb early yet not get yanked due north too early-both processes are linked because the phase that bombs the low also yanks it north. Too late means light/moderate rain here and crushing snow from the Catskills to Boston. 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

But it’s not just the NAM or GFS. Euro also isn’t good for the metro.

On the 5-10% chance this can pan out, the upside is very high if we can somehow get the low to bomb out 75 miles or so S of Montauk. Those crazy UKMET runs are legit in that very off chance. But the GGEM bombing it out S of Nantucket then tracking it near Cape Cod is way too far east for NYC. We also have the usual problem of strong easterly flow maritime air that has to be overcome as the precip (rain) moves in. So what happens is we get moderate rain for a while in the maritime crap airmass (wet snow inland) that changes to heavy snow over SNE where the late bombing low can work. But the low can't bomb/phase too early because then the low will hug the coast and we get rain from a too far west track.

So I'm not encouraged. I'll keep an eye on the next few cycles but if no improvement I'm out. 

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jayyy

jayyy

Posted
Posted

This is a prime example of the Euro’s bias providing NYC with a heartbreaking mirage in the mid range (D4-5) We have seen this song and dance before over the years with these setups. This setup mimics almost every other previous Miller B fail for NYC proper and points SW. It’s not impossible, but so much needs to go right for DC BAL PHL and NYC to score big in a NS driven Miller b setup.

A NS driven miller B plays directly into the Euro’s over-amplification bias. It’s tendency to blow up lows too quickly / far west is why it showed a biggie, even for the lowlands. In reality, a NS driven Miller B is more likely to develop just too far east due to how far north the primary gets and the angle at which the NS digs leading in.

If this were a SS driven setup, BAL to BOS would be getting crushed with a metropolis wide foot +. The wave 3 threat (St Paddy’s) and wave 4 (march 20-22nd) has always been the better window due to the NS’s influence being quelled. The ensembles showed this pretty clearly earlier today. The longwave pattern is nearly identical as the 13-14th, except those 2 waves form in a SS driven regime, allowing the coastals to develop earlier and the precip shield to expand / strengthen in time for the metros to cash in.

It’s not impossible to cash in, but the NAM GFS Euro RGEM etc. are trending the wrong way for a reason.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

UKMET buries the Berkshires/Albany area into NW CT. Those have been the places consistently hit hard in the modeling. 

Near the city on this run we have strong easterly flow and maritime air in the 40s for the beginning of the storm, storm bombs in a lousy place (but further west than GGEM), blah blah blah. 

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