Franklin0529 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I thought we were worried about this storm being a hugger? More west and it would be. We need it to bomb out closer to the coast so we get into the ccb. If not it's rain. Shitty airmass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 24 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Not in mid March. Not in mid March this year and with this type of la Nina year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: Latest EPS ensemble members for NYC: Looks like 1" is a good possibility....is it about the same for JFK Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Not in mid March this year and with this type of la Nina year. ugh not this again lol, la ninas are actually much more likely to have March snowstorms here. It's just that there isn't much cold air around. We need an airmass with temps in the upper 20s and lower 30s. also people realize that it just doesn't snow a lot after the first week of March, that's our climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: ugh not this again lol, la ninas are actually much more likely to have March snowstorms here. It's just that there isn't much cold air around. We need an airmass with temps in the upper 20s and lower 30s. also people realize that it just doesn't snow a lot after the first week of March, that's our climate. Ugh you are incorrect. This was a record west coast trough and a strongly coupled La Nina. We do not snow in March in strong la Ninas. We love El Ninos, but a strong El Nino like 97/98 we had perfect benchmark tracks and they all failed as it was too strong. Same here with the la Nina. You are broad brushing Nina's which is 100% incorrect. Yes we snow in March in a weaker Nina. This year was historic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 I’m hoping we get NAMed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Why is this storm SO small and why have storms recently been small like this? January 1996 in this position would have heavy snow all the way back to the midwest. January 2016 too. If there is a closed 500mb low there is a good feed of moisture back to the west up to the point the flow backs around to northerly behind the closed low. If the upper air low supports transporting moisture west, it’ll do so. If there’s an open wave trough and it’s too progressive, that doesn’t happen. Jan 1996, 2016, Feb 2003 etc were Gulf origin lows with a huge moisture feed ahead of those lows into a dome of cold air that the moisture overran. That helped create the huge area of snow and it’s another reason you want a large high pressure area for the low to head into. The massive overrunning surface creates a large area of heavy snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If there is a closed 500mb low there is a good feed of moisture back to the west up to the point the flow backs around to northerly behind the closed low. If the upper air low supports transporting moisture west, it’ll do so. If there’s an open wave trough and it’s too progressive, that doesn’t happen. Jan 1996, 2016, Feb 2003 etc were Gulf origin lows with a huge moisture feed ahead of those lows into a dome of cold air that the moisture overran. That helped create the huge area of snow and it’s another reason you want a large high pressure area for the low to head into. The massive overrunning surface creates a large area of heavy snow. I guess that's why el ninos or la ninas that happen after el ninos are better for that sort of thing. If I remember correctly, we had the same thing on February 2, 2021, but the storm was a hugger so the highest snowfall amounts were near Binghamton. Still getting a foot or more even down here was pretty amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 10, 2023 Author Share Posted March 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, David-LI said: I’m hoping we get NAMed At this range you better hope the NAM jackpots Buffalo. If it shows a big hit around here or is further East that would be a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Ugh you are incorrect. This was a record west coast trough and a strongly coupled La Nina. We do not snow in March in strong la Ninas. We love El Ninos, but a strong El Nino like 97/98 we had perfect benchmark tracks and they all failed as it was too strong. Same here with the la Nina. You are broad brushing Nina's which is 100% incorrect. Yes we snow in March in a weaker Nina. This year was historic. I'm mostly referring to ones like March 1956 and March 2018 and April of both years though. It is much more about that persistent and extreme west coast trough. This la nina would have had a March 2018 result if it weren't for that trough being so extreme. That extreme west coast trough wasn't caused by the la nina either, because la ninas don't produce all that rain and snow in California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Select EPS Data: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Looks like 1" is a good possibility....is it about the same for JFK Don? For now, it seems reasonable for Monday-Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: For now, it seems reasonable for Monday-Tuesday. More likely Tuesday than Monday? Since this seems to be a rain to snow scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, LibertyBell said: More likely Tuesday than Monday? Since this seems to be a rain to snow scenario. I’m just referring to the timeframe of the storm. For NYC and nearby areas, Tuesday could be the better bet. We should get a lot of precipitation and strong winds, even if the snow disappoints. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, donsutherland1 said: I’m just referring to the timeframe of the storm. For NYC and nearby areas, Tuesday could be the better bet. We should get a lot of precipitation and strong winds, even if the snow disappoints. Sounds more like a further NW Fools Day 1997 rather than March 2001. Or maybe a combo of those 2 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: I think the danger is we're three days out and a lot can go wrong. IE the low developing too late or dynamics not being strong enough to cool the BL ect. But as things stand now verbatim, I think most would do very well. It wouldn't be an epic blizzard for the coast but it would easily be the biggest snowfall of the season. Yeah I have no concerns about the air mass with this unless it basically just tracks so far east it misses but if this thing goes up over SNE its likely going to snow everywhere 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah I have no concerns about the air mass with this unless it basically just tracks so far east it misses but if this thing goes up over SNE its likely going to snow everywhere what do you think of a combo analog of Fools Day 1997 and March 2001 for this storm? Further NW of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Ridging out west remains the problem. A flatter ridge leads to a late capture a la March 2001. We'll need models to improve by tomorrow otherwise it's a dud for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Ridging out west remains the problem. A flatter ridge leads to a late capture a la March 2001. We'll need models to improve by tomorrow otherwise it's a dud for most. Nam looked better with the ridging. Drives a bomb right into swct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Ridging out west remains the problem. A flatter ridge leads to a late capture a la March 2001. We'll need models to improve by tomorrow otherwise it's a dud for most. what caused us to bust in Fools Day 1997? also a late capture from a flat ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, LibertyBell said: what caused us to bust in Fools Day 1997? also a late capture from a flat ridge? We dry slotted more or less...we were cold enough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: what caused us to bust in Fools Day 1997? also a late capture from a flat ridge? The upper low position funneled the precip/snow into SNE and dry slotted most of us. We need the upper low further south to avoid that outcome. I don’t remember 4/1/97 at all, probably for the best. Would’ve been infuriating. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The upper low position funneled the precip/snow into SNE and dry slotted most of us. We need the upper low further south to avoid that outcome. I don’t remember 4/1/97 at all, probably for the best. Would’ve been infuriating. Being after our greatest winter made it less annoying than most. The prediction was for 8-16 inches of snow lol We got 1-2 and closer to 1. More snow south of us on the Jersey Shore (6-8) and a lot more snow north and northeast of us. Sort of the same thing happened in April 1996 but we got 4-5 inches here and the dryslot was over the city, while south of us on the Jersey Coast got 6-8 inches and in Suffolk County it was 12-16 inches with blizzard conditions all the way to the Hamptons. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: We dry slotted more or less...we were cold enough Yep, hence the 6-8 inches of snow on the Jersey Shore (same thing happened in April 1996 but at least JFK and western Nassau county got 4-5 inches in that one). The 6-12 inch prediction for the city in April 1996 was a bust though and an even bigger bust was the 8-16 inch prediction for the city in April 1997. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 41 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I'm mostly referring to ones like March 1956 and March 2018 and April of both years though. It is much more about that persistent and extreme west coast trough. This la nina would have had a March 2018 result if it weren't for that trough being so extreme. That extreme west coast trough wasn't caused by the la nina either, because la ninas don't produce all that rain and snow in California. Take a look at the trough positioning. You will see why California had all this precipitation. It's still a west coast trough displaced west of the Rockies. That is la Nina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Take a look at the trough positioning. You will see why California had all this precipitation. It's still a west coast trough displaced west of the Rockies. That is la Nina. But we had this discussion before about the -PNA getting to less negative than -1 helping out. All that rain in California is actually more like an el nino, if it were like a la nina the trough would be crashing into the Pac NW. When this happened in December and January do you remember we said that all this rain and snow in California was more like a strong el nino and the records for rainfall being broken were from 1982-83? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: But we had this discussion before about the -PNA getting to less negative than -1 helping out. All that rain in California is actually more like an el nino, if it were like a la nina the trough would be crashing into the Pac NW. When this happened in December and January do you remember we said that all this rain and snow in California was more like a strong el nino and the records for rainfall being broken were from 1982-83? That was January only. December February and March had a deep trough over California allowing the storms to move South and the cold air to drain. Please take a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, EastonSN+ said: That was January only. December February and March had a deep trough over California allowing the storms to move South and the cold air to drain. Please take a look. a deep trough over California is an el nino look though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: a deep trough over California is an el nino look though. El Nino looks like this. It's a positive PNA undercut by a strong PAC. A la Nina is the opposite with a trough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: El Nino looks like this. It's a positive PNA undercut by a strong PAC. A la Nina is the opposite with a trough. But still has the extreme rainfall into California, which is why this year broke records from 1982-83. But isn't a la nina supposed to be dry in California? I remember previous la nina years were so dry in California that they had forest fires.....in winter! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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