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March 13-14th Nor'easter Threat


NJwx85
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8 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Yeah, it feels dirty counting it, lol.  I wouldn't post it on the FB page or people will get upset.  A few cold spots have 2.5" here, but most everywhere else is a dusting. 

It's like the 5 that fell in March 98. Don't think there was ever close to that on the ground and it melted either a few hours

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4 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Just woke up from a decent nap and it's been snowing light to almost moderate and just trying to accumulate a little and then I was rooting around on the interwebz and a few minutes later, without having looked back outside, I checked the radar and basically said, OMG that should be close to heavy snow and looked up and it was, lol - almost a dusting! Down to 34F.

After about 4 hours of light to moderate snow at 33-34F, with a few light dustings established and then melted quickly as intensity lessened, just now we're finally getting sustained moderate snow (maybe 3/8 of a mile visibility (maybe 600-700 yards) at 32F and we now officially have a "full dusting" or "light coating" (whatever that is, lol) on the colder surfaces (and a good 1/4" on trees, but that doesn't count, lol) which translates to about 0.1".

My guess is now that we're 2.5 hours past the full height of the sun and a little cooler, the snow will accumulate at least a little now. Radar looks good for me for the next 30 min or so. If we can hold onto this intensity once we have a cold layer on the ground, maybe we can pull off a whole 1/4-1/2". My other guess is that we've probably had 1/4-3/8" per hour snow "falling" rates for ~4 hours (I always think of 1/4" per hour as light with 3/8"/hr as getting moderate), so that's about the melting rate - could've had 1-1.5" over those 4 hours, but it's midday at March and it's been 33-34F until right now. Anyway, that's probably TMI for most, lol, but I get excited about this stuff, lol.  

bwfJnzJ.png

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If you're getting the moderate to close to heavy bands we're in now and others who also have had little snow this winter appear to be in, get yourself outside and walk around in it.  It's a beautiful day - yeah it sucks that most of it has melted, but even falling snow with big flakes is very cool to see and we might not see any more flakes until next winter.  Or 2026.  

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4 minutes ago, lee59 said:

If you go up the Taconic State Parkway you go thru Fahnstock State Park, the elevation on the Taconic at that point is around 1100 ft. It is south of route 84. They have 13.5 inches and counting.

I'm about 18 miles SE of that spot and 400 feet down but I'm nearly there at about a foot. @DRVTSis a few miles east and I bet he's at least equal based on the direction of these bands. 

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Nothing at work except 0.5-1" under trees and in the woods.  Otherwise, the open grass was completely bare and all of it from earlier had melted.

Back home, we have 3.5 inches of solid cover.  There was a rapid pick up in the snow depth driving east along Newton-Sparta road and within a few miles, it was a different world, even with a  modest elevation gain.

The other surprising thing, the snow here is more powdery than expected.  It's actually kicking up and whipping around some in the wind.  

Currently just light snow.  Temp is 31.

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30 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Probably sticking in the hills just across 22.

I'm down the road a little west of you, not in the hills.

Sticking fine in Branchburg everywhere except the roads, but I think that might start happening very soon.

3" on my table and an inch in the backyard where its not a swamp.

Down to 32 exactly again and moderate snow.

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32 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

After about 4 hours of light to moderate snow at 33-34F, with a few light dustings established and then melted quickly as intensity lessened, just now we're finally getting sustained moderate snow (maybe 3/8 of a mile visibility (maybe 600-700 yards) at 32F and we now officially have a "full dusting" or "light coating" (whatever that is, lol) on the colder surfaces (and a good 1/4" on trees, but that doesn't count, lol) which translates to about 0.1".

My guess is now that we're 2.5 hours past the full height of the sun and a little cooler, the snow will accumulate at least a little now. Radar looks good for me for the next 30 min or so. If we can hold onto this intensity once we have a cold layer on the ground, maybe we can pull off a whole 1/4-1/2". My other guess is that we've probably had 1/4-3/8" per hour snow "falling" rates for ~4 hours (I always think of 1/4" per hour as light with 3/8"/hr as getting moderate), so that's about the melting rate - could've had 1-1.5" over those 4 hours, but it's midday at March and it's been 33-34F until right now. Anyway, that's probably TMI for most, lol, but I get excited about this stuff, lol.  

bwfJnzJ.png

We're up to 1/2" on the board on the lawn and the trees have about 1/2", while my undisturbed car in the shade has almost 1" on it and nada on pavement.  I'm recording 1/2" right now, since the car is definitely an outlier - I've almost never seen this kind of difference before and I'm sure it's due to the car top being just slightly colder than the ground/board.  Still 32F and coming down moderately, so we could get to 1" if that band stays over us (we'll be right on the eastern edge of it).  Most years I wouldn't care much about every 1/4" but this winter is different.  

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1 minute ago, mikem81 said:

Sounds like Metro Boston didnt get much of anything which is really insane giving the low pressure location. That dual low in CT really screwed them the most. 

I wouldn’t say they’re done there yet given how much is to their west, and what’s still to fall has benefit of setting sun but they probably get 2-3” at most. Never would’ve thought they’d get screwed that bad from a setup like this. I thought yesterday they were good for 6”+ given models trending in their direction. 

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17 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Another surprise-only 6.5” at Albany Airport. I thought for sure they’d have 12+ in this storm. The downslope really screwed them. 23” at Hunter. This is the ultimate have/have nots storm but March storms usually do that. 

They aren't done yet. NWS Albany talking about a pivoting band and Mohawk Convergence which may add to totals later today and this evening. 

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8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Another surprise-only 6.5” at Albany Airport. I thought for sure they’d have 12+ in this storm. The downslope really screwed them. 23” at Hunter. This is the ultimate have/have nots storm but March storms usually do that. 

There is some good banding going over them right now so they can probably add another inch or 2, but still, that’s a decent sized bust for them

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