Winterweatherlover Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: A few of the models do have some remnant of the CCB over Suffolk County especially tomorrow. I doubt it adds up to anything since it will be falling during the day in marginal temps but something to keep an eye on. I wouldn’t expect more than an inch or so on grass in lucky places. I’m sure you’ll get more than cpk from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Fair point. The cmc looks lousy too but I guess it’s expected cmc/RGEM would be similar. Guess we’ll find out tomorrow. Should be a sharp cutoff somewhere near I84 but not sure exactly where that sets up. CMC is even worse, lol but that was to be expected. We will know pretty soon but I'm not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Seems if there is a changeover in NYC it’ll be around 7 am. Really getting the absolute worse timing with this. The RGEM/CMC never change nyc over at all, all rain but they may be too extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Is it me or does this thing not even look that impressive on radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 20 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: I’m sure you’ll get more than cpk from this. Probably. For the purpose of getting me to 8.5” from 7.5 on the season it works, but I couldn’t care less otherwise about an inch on the grass that’ll be gone in a half hour in mid March in mid afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, matt8204 said: Is it me or does this thing not even look that impressive on radar? This is very preliminary stuff driven by the inverted trough (essentially a front driven by easterly winds pushing into an area of northerly winds). The coastal storm and much heavier activity starts late tonight into tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Detailed Forecast This Afternoon Rain. High near 39. East wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tonight Rain before 11pm, then rain and snow between 11pm and 2am, then snow after 2am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 31. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Tuesday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 34. Breezy, with a northwest wind 20 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Don't know what the NWS is seeing? This is my updated forecast. They actually upped snow totals to 11-20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This is very preliminary stuff driven by the inverted trough (essentially a front driven by easterly winds pushing into an area of northerly winds). The coastal storm and much heavier activity starts late tonight into tomorrow. Of course the inverted trough actually happens when it hurts no snow chances but never happens when it’s cold enough to snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Detailed Forecast This Afternoon Rain. High near 39. East wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tonight Rain before 11pm, then rain and snow between 11pm and 2am, then snow after 2am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 31. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Tuesday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 34. Breezy, with a northwest wind 20 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Don't know what the NWS is seeing? This is my updated forecast. They actually upped snow totals to 11-20" I guess they are not just looking at CMC/RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Detailed Forecast This Afternoon Rain. High near 39. East wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tonight Rain before 11pm, then rain and snow between 11pm and 2am, then snow after 2am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 31. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Tuesday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 34. Breezy, with a northwest wind 20 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Don't know what the NWS is seeing? This is my updated forecast. They actually upped snow totals to 11-20" I think NW NJ too far SW to get into the really good stuff but if you have elevation you may do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: I think NW NJ too far SW to get into the really good stuff but if you have elevation you may do ok. I'm thoroughly confused at this point? My elevation is 1,200 ft. We still have full snow cover from Friday night's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This is very preliminary stuff driven by the inverted trough (essentially a front driven by easterly winds pushing into an area of northerly winds). The coastal storm and much heavier activity starts late tonight into tomorrow. Thanks! Still grasping the details of these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 The HREF is again going too high...mean is like 2-4 near the metro but its been consistently bad this year after it was very good last winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 34 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: We've had light snow all morning that hasn't stuck since the sun came up. Now as that precip move north towards me, it has changed to rain. NWS still sticking with Warning here for 6-12" with higher amounts in higher elevations. After reading all these comments, I'm confused? Don't know what to expect. You think my elevation will save the day here? If you see significant snow it will be overnight and into tomorrow. The precip today in NJ was modeled as being rain which is what you are seeing. The place to be is where the banding sets up. We’ll have a clearer idea on that later. The thinking has been and continues to be that will be at places along and north of I80/I287. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The HREF is again going too high...mean is like 2-4 near the metro but its been consistently bad this year after it was very good last winter Map please if you don’t mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 12z HREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The HREF is again going too high...mean is like 2-4 near the metro but its been consistently bad this year after it was very good last winter It did very well here on the 2/28 event but was too high on the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 12 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: I'm thoroughly confused at this point? My elevation is 1,200 ft. We still have full snow cover from Friday night's snow. Hrrr has your area between .5 and. 75" so even if that was all snow you'd be on the lower end of forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Started raining here around 1:30 am. So far, 0.41" of rainfall. Coming down at a moderate rate now. Temp up to 47*. Noticeably breezier within the hour, gusts up to 25 mph. Expecting all rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 12z HREF Higher than the NAM. Hard to believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 12z HREF Interesting…. Roughly 6” up here. And yes @jm1220it did decently well last storm also here it was almost spot on. We’ll see I guess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 GFS has a crazy snow gradient over Rockland and Westchester. Could be 8"+ in places like Tompkins Cove and Yorktown Heights while Nyack and White Plains get under an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: GFS has a crazy snow gradient over Rockland and Westchester. Could be 8"+ in places like Tompkins Cove and Yorktown Heights while Nyack and White Plains get under an inch. Ok so I am halfway into between those points from west to east just like @cleetussnowso 4-5”?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: GFS has a crazy snow gradient over Rockland and Westchester. Could be 8"+ in places like Tompkins Cove and Yorktown Heights while Nyack and White Plains get under an inch. Is there a big difference in elevation there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: GFS has a crazy snow gradient over Rockland and Westchester. Could be 8"+ in places like Tompkins Cove and Yorktown Heights while Nyack and White Plains get under an inch. Maybe but I lean the gfs is wrong and that sharp cutoff will be along or near I84. I'd be surprised if anyone in Westchester or Rockland is over 6 inches (maybe Rockland near the Bear Mountain region has a chance). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Is there a big difference in elevation there? Yes as you go up the Palisades you start to go up in elevation. Especially once you get up to Stony Point near Bear Mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Yes as you go up the Palisades you start to go up in elevation. Especially once you get up to Stony Point near Bear Mountain. Maybe just post an image if you can to make it easier for everyone to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Maybe just post an image if you can to make it easier for everyone to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 I;m going to post both high and low end images so people can see sort of the range iof options. CMC https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023031312&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= GFS https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023031312&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 945 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A complex coastal storm will affect the area today through Tuesday night. High pressure then builds into the region Wednesday through Thursday. A cold front approaches on Friday and passes through on Saturday. High pressure returns on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface low pressure off the North carolina coast this morning will slowly deepen while moving N/NE today. Rains associated with it have already overspread most of the CWA with the exception being Berks county and wrn Chester county PA. Adjustments to pops and wx have been performed for the mid- morning update. For the southern Poconos, temperatures will be colder with (near freezing this morning). These temperatures will be cold enough for snow at the onset. The highest elevations will likely receive 1-4 inches of snow by midday Monday. By this point, temps will start creeping up into the mid 30s as easterly flow brings in warmer air, and with the coverage of advisory level snow expected to be confined to the highest elevations, continued with the decision to not issue an advisory for this early portion of the event. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A strong area of low pressure will be east of the Virginia/North Carolina border this evening, as a secondary low lifts along the New Jersey shore just offshore, and this low will lift towards western Long Island by daybreak Tuesday. Most of the region will be in the warm sector for most of the rain for most of the night, though temperatures in the southern Poconos, especially in the higher elevations of Monroe county, will be cold enough to support all snow. With low pressure beginning to take on a more northeasterly track as it lifts towards western Long Island, cold air advection will develop as winds shift to the north. The rain/snow line will then spread south through the Lehigh Valley and most of northern New Jersey, mainly north of the I-78 corridor, and accumulating snow will develop during this time. Snow then continues to spread south Tuesday morning. The main question is how far south snow will get. Think there may be some light accumulating snow as far south as the Philadelphia metro area and into southern New Jersey, but really not expecting much more than an inch or so from around I-195 south. The primary low over the western Atlantic will lift towards eastern New England Tuesday morning, and then this low will merge with the aforementioned secondary low. Precip continues to wrap around this system into the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey into Tuesday afternoon before ending Tuesday evening. Strong shortwave energy will pass through the region Tuesday night, keeping light accumulating snow, mainly over the northern zones. In terms of snow totals, generally expecting 1 to 2 feet of snow across Carbon, Monroe, and Sussex (NJ) counties, though the highest snow amounts will be in the higher elevations, and most areas will pick up about 1 foot or so from tonight through Tuesday. From 6 to 10 inches of snow is possible down to the I-78 corridor, mainly from early Tuesday morning through Tuesday. Will go ahead and convert the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning for Carbon, Monroe, and Sussex (NJ) counties, and will also go ahead and add Warren and Morris counties, as the heavier bands of accumulating snow look to spread a bit farther south. The heaviest snow in Morris county will be in the western half of the county, and snow amounts may be minimal across the eastern half of Morris county. For now, do not think Winter Weather Advisories are needed elsewhere. A tight pressure gradient develops over the area between the low and high pressure building in from the west on Tuesday and Tuesday night. However, latest runs of the models seem to have the low a touch farther east, so the gradient is not quite as strong as it looked in prior runs. As a result, expecting northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with 35 to 45 mph gusts, which are just below Wind Advisory criteria. Although a Wind Advisory may end up being needed for the coastal strips, will hold off one one with this package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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