sussexcountyobs Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Light snow. 32.5° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Walt GM. What would you think the final verdict is for the Allentown, pa, Lehigh Valley area. Seems we are stuck in no mans landIt’s going to be cold, it’s going to be grey, and it’s going to last you the rest of your life.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 For days people said this setup favors New England....and here we are. It begs the question of why waste time following models that haven't a prayer of verifying? When simple intuition seems more accurate. What a strange field this is.....I could be wrong but that's my recollection......and once again, the curse of March rears its ugly head for the city, with a few exceptions. Difference here is that none of the actual local pros were ever on board with a decent snow for the city, as opposed to some of the big March busts I remember. Tale as old as time… People see what they want to see. Happens in other parts of life, too… in relationships, ideas, fandom.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 hour ago, LVwhiteout said: Walt GM. What would you think the final verdict is for the Allentown, pa, Lehigh Valley area. Seems we are stuck in no mans land Depends on where the IVT sets up shop. Most models have the heavier precip with it falling as snow in the Poconos and Catskills. For the LV it depends upon precip rates and amounts. As you said we are in a no man’s land being too far west to see much from the synoptic precip from SLP over the Atlantic and too far south and too low in elevation to see much snow from the IVT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 They still have me under a winter storm warning for 6-12 inches. Yet the daily forecast from TWC shows one inch through tomorrow afternoon. LOL. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Winter Storm Warning posted here in western MA from 8PM this evening till 8AM Tuesday, expecting anywhere from 10-15". Currently 29 here, 38 back in HPN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 New Euro run puts the low over central CT so maybe spoke too soon about Boston getting crushed. Have to admit, this winter has been a total fail there too. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 They still have me under a winter storm warning for 6-12 inches. Yet the daily forecast from TWC shows one inch through tomorrow afternoon. LOL.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: New Euro run puts the low over central CT so maybe spoke too soon about Boston getting crushed. Have to admit, this winter has been a total fail there too. This one will go down as a prototypical elevation event. Places like Boston and the CT River Valley will get much less than surrounding higher terrain. In the Boston area the place to be will be north and west of 128. Like you said coastal areas don’t look too good with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 23 minutes ago, Picard said: They still have me under a winter storm warning for 6-12 inches. Yet the daily forecast from TWC shows one inch through tomorrow afternoon. LOL. Same for me in northern Warren County but the warning is for 6-8 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, Tatamy said: This one will go down as a prototypical elevation event. Places like Boston and the CT River Valley will get much less than surrounding higher terrain. In the Boston area the place to be will be north and west of 128. Like you said coastal areas don’t look too good with this event. Seems the lower elevations of the HV may bust badly as well. Story of the winter. You either need elevation or to be Albany and north this winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said: Same for me in northern Warren County but the warning is for 6-8 inches. Going to be a crazy gradient by you with this event. Do you know what your elevation is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said: Same for me in northern Warren County but the warning is for 6-8 inches. My AccuWeather app has 1-3" here on the border of Warren and Morris counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Mixed snow and rain here in Patterson. Heading up to Catamount to ski for the day. Forecasting now 4-12 inches with the warning. Big difference from the 8-16 yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 24 minutes ago, jm1220 said: New Euro run puts the low over central CT so maybe spoke too soon about Boston getting crushed. Have to admit, this winter has been a total fail there too. If you thought this has been bad for us in NY, don't forget about Boston. Might go from 6-12 to 1 to 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, mannynyc said: If you thought this has been bad for us in NY, don't forget about Boston. Might go from 6-12 to 1 to 3. The pinwheel of the low is so weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 26 minutes ago, jm1220 said: New Euro run puts the low over central CT so maybe spoke too soon about Boston getting crushed. Have to admit, this winter has been a total fail there too. Sounds like Catskills, Adirondacks and Poconos could really get hammered especially with a more western track. Not so good for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, lee59 said: Sounds like Catskills, Adirondacks and Poconos could really get hammered especially with a more western track. Not so good for the coast. Hunter Mountain might be the best place of any with this. Perfect for a huge upslope easterly flow event. They may get 30”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The pinwheel of the low is so weird The models are just doing a very bad job with this system. Someone is going to bust hard and someone is going to overperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Hunter Mountain might be the best place of any with this. Perfect for a huge upslope easterly flow event. They may get 30”. Great for ski resorts. After a crummy winter, maybe they will be skiing well into spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Am I justified in canceling meetings in Pittsburgh tomorrow night because of this or am I taking the easy way out? Would be driving from Hoboken to Pittsburgh at like 8 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 16 minutes ago, mannynyc said: If you thought this has been bad for us in NY, don't forget about Boston. Might go from 6-12 to 1 to 3. Mr Rayno thinks Boston gets a foot based on the track of the upper low off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 31 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Seems the lower elevations of the HV may bust badly as well. Story of the winter. You either need elevation or to be Albany and north this winter. Predicting 3-6, where I live lower elevation East of the Hudson. Par for the course this winter if we only get a few inches to never crack 6 inches in any event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Mr Rayno thinks Boston gets a foot based on the track of the upper low off shore. Yeah he's not wrong with his ideas. I saw that on twitter...I do not buy the huge snow shield the HRRR/3K have back into our area tomorrow at all. I understand what they're keying in on to have that but to me the system is simply closed off a tad too far east for that to happen...its not crazy though that maybe the N Fork of cntrl to E Suffolk and maybe places like HVN could get in on a decent period of snow in the afternoon tomorrow. The DPs are cold enough this time that no question on a N flow places could get to 32-33 and accumulate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Predicting 3-6, where I live lower elevation East of the Hudson. Par for the course this winter if we only get a few inches to never crack 6 inches in any event. 6-12 for my area BUT I doubt we see 6" as every event this winter has busted low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 As with most of these storms, it will be nowcast time. ESE wind already getting busy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 The latest HRRR has basically no snow outside of the higher elevations of Orange County and NW NJ through 05z tonight. Then the changeover gradually begins, but the whole area begins to dry slot. If that happens, the forecast is very much in trouble. This reminds me of March 2001 so much, but the biggest difference being that models are so much better than they were then and so they were able to figure this out a lot quicker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Tatamy said: Going to be a crazy gradient by you with this event. Do you know what your elevation is? About 600 feet or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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