Winterweatherlover Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 hour ago, lee59 said: Latest forecast from NWS seems to have the coast and NYC with a general 2-4 inches, around Newburgh 6-9 inches and up toward Kingston a foot, Monticello area almost 20 inches. Imo no way the coast and NYC is 2-4 inches. I think through 7 am Tuesday it’s rain and then probably white rain Tuesday or maybe a mix. I’m not seeing anything to believe temps would be near freezing in or near the city. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 hours ago, Picard said: It'll be interesting to see where the watches/warnings go up and how they align with the final totals in our area. I'm at exactly 800 feet verified by GPS and topo map. Parts of Morris County, Jefferson, Oak Ridge, Mount Arlington, are a few hundred feet higher than me, as are other parts of Sparta. Even a portion of Rockway sits over 1000 feet. If anyone remembers March 31 - April 1, 1997. We had a very elevation driven intense storm up here. I remember leaving work in Morris Plains to a rain/snow mix, and nothing on the ground, to over a foot with stuck and abandoned cars on Route 15 once I hit the higher parts of Jefferson and into Sparta. I was a kid all of 22 at the time, driving a stupid Saturn sedan back and forth to work. I still don't know how I made it home in that thing. I live in Hackettstown and recall that storm. We didn't get anything down here in the valley.. But go up the mountain on rt 46 to Budd Lake and it was like being on another planet with decent snow. And if I recall correctly, it got warm real quick after that storm and it was gone within a week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 UKMET just caved too. It now has nothing tuesday. Looks likely that this is over except for well to the northwest. Doesn't feel as if there's a need to stay up to look at Euro. It would be pretty irritating to stay up for Euro anyway now that it's so late due to the clock change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 00z suite is for the most part showing a max snowfall area around I90 and very little near NYC metro. What happens in between is still TBD. I'm thinking 6-12 around I84, with the lower amounts in the valleys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: Multiple times. 12/30/00, 2/25/10, 2/1/21, Lindsay Storm 1969, Blizzard of 1888 etc. But yea, this definitely won't be one of them. west/east rain snow lines do that, they're not extremely rare, but not common either. It's more common between NYC and Boston, I don't remember the last time it happened between ACY and NYC because they are at nearly the same longitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Nope, it's fantasy. I wish it would happen, but it's in all likelihood not going to. I'm not even that optimistic where I live which is 50 miles NNW of Central Park. Hope I'm wrong. Not even sure why they're looking at the 3k NAM when it was already pointed out that's the digital zoom of "forecast" models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Euro pulls the rug — at least here in eastern pa — them 12-24 pocono forecasts not looking good . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Euro pulls the rug — at least here in eastern pa — them 12-24 pocono forecasts not looking good . 12"? Only expecting maybe 6 inches in the Poconos. For NYC that 1-2 inches looks so meager I'd much rather less than half an inch and preserve the record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said: Imo no way the coast and NYC is 2-4 inches. I think through 7 am Tuesday it’s rain and then probably white rain Tuesday or maybe a mix. I’m not seeing anything to believe temps would be near freezing in or near the city. Probably better for NYC to get less than half an inch and preserve that record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilsonvoid1 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Euro pulls the rug — at least here in eastern pa — them 12-24 pocono forecasts not looking good .just this morning Euro pivotal maps had us on the 15-18 inch for the city now it's literally a coating. What happen to this model? GFS is the best model I don't care what anyone says not once has the GFS giving me more than a few slushy inches! Good job GFS, i'll just start looking at GFS from now on! Of course Boston gets clobbered️. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Steady snow falling. Sticking to all paved surfaces. 32.5° 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 NWS 3:17am update. Winter Storm Warning in effect from 6pm till 6pm Tuesday. 6-12" with higher amounts in higher elevations. Obviously they are not following latest model runs tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 NWS 3:17am update. Winter Storm Warning in effect from 6pm till 6pm Tuesday. 6-12" with higher amounts in higher elevations. Obviously they are not following latest model runs tonight. I have one in eastern pa for 12-18…. I need a puff of that stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, anthonyweather said: I have one in eastern pa for 12-18…. I need a puff of that stuff . For some reason they are disregarding the last model runs. NWS is usually pretty conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Under a Winter Storm Warning for 6-12”. As with this entire winter jackpots have all been west of the Hudson River. I would say 6” for me the way things have been going this winter. Anything extra is a bonus. I do have elevation going for me as I am at 760’. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Will speculate 2-4" most likely outcome for NYC metro, 4-8" lower Hudson valley, trending to 12-16" Albany. Mixed sleety falls to eventual all snow, might be only 50% effective at sticking in the urban heat island. About 1-2" in central Long Island unless they happen to catch some hefty NNW banding, then 3-5" possible. Will become quite windy, NNW 30-50 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Wantage NJ in far nw NJ 0.2" and light snow at 445AM 32.2.F. most of the snow since about 3AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 The euro did so terrible with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 hour ago, sussexcountyobs said: For some reason they are disregarding the last model runs. NWS is usually pretty conservative. maybe they have their own in house model runs they keep away from the weenies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 46 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: The euro did so terrible with this storm. Yep and 1 run of the Nam Congrats New England What a shit winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Yep and 1 run of the Nam Congrats New England What a shit winterCome back at Thanksgiving!Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaquanweb Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 wow so i told my folks to get salt for no reason 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwhiteout Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Wantage NJ in far nw NJ 0.2" and light snow at 445AM 32.2.F. most of the snow since about 3AM. Walt GM. What would you think the final verdict is for the Allentown, pa, Lehigh Valley area. Seems we are stuck in no mans land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Light drizzle 35.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 For days people said this setup favors New England....and here we are. It begs the question of why waste time following models that haven't a prayer of verifying? When simple intuition seems more accurate. What a strange field this is.....I could be wrong but that's my recollection......and once again, the curse of March rears its ugly head for the city, with a few exceptions. Difference here is that none of the actual local pros were ever on board with a decent snow for the city, as opposed to some of the big March busts I remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 December. You don't want snow in Nov, its a bad luck signal for the rest of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Still a major coastal Nor'easter for the next few days. Strong winds, heavy rain and heavy snow for some in the northeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 The euro did so terrible with this storm. The Euro and EPS did God awful the last 2 weeks. Terrible. The RGEM/CMC and GFS just schooled it again with this storm, full cave. The NAM is equally as horrific. Yet another “great pattern”, “unbelievable potential”, “buckle up, historic” falls by the way side. 5 months in a row of “potential” with zippo, nada to show for it. This is a 1-2 inch event up here in Rockland, maybe and nothing for NYC, LI. Just like this past weekend. Non event 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 32 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: For days people said this setup favors New England....and here we are. It begs the question of why waste time following models that haven't a prayer of verifying? When simple intuition seems more accurate. What a strange field this is.....I could be wrong but that's my recollection......and once again, the curse of March rears its ugly head for the city, with a few exceptions. Difference here is that none of the actual local pros were ever on board with a decent snow for the city, as opposed to some of the big March busts I remember. There were a few stray model runs for the most part that had a good event in NYC. The focus has always been the Catskills over to the Worcester hills. The basic setup is lousy to awful for us down here and we needed the low to bomb early on and consolidate. That very likely won’t happen so this is the outcome we get. It was only a 10% likelihood IMO for anything decent here. Boston/E MA will likely get hit with the departing CCB since a late developing low is fine for them. We’ll probably get some light nonaccumulating snow tomorrow as we watch them get pounded. Agree-this “winter” needs to end ASAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Looks like the nascent stage of the IVT is setting up across western NJ and SE PA. Light rain and a few melting snowflakes falling here. 34.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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