March 13-14th Nor'easter Threat

[DaveTinNY]

24 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

I didn’t realize a 3-6” event from 287 to 84 is a non event.

I just put my studded snows on the MINI.  JUST in case.  I commute to Dutchess County...  Fishkill area.  

[Winterweatherlover]

2 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

That’s a joke right. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. He’s calls for no snow all the time even though his name contradicts

This winter hes been basically right everytime for his area and points se of there. 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

Models are real convinced the southern low chases this area of vorticity and convection way out to sea , which causes way to late of a phase for us.

I'm not sure how this plays out honestly. Gonna come down to watching that southern stream L in real time

There’s still time for models to get a clue if that’s wrong, but the late/sloppy phase clearly won’t do it for us near the coast. 

And that lousy result can be right. Last winter’s two Jan storms chased convection to varying degrees and would’ve been way better otherwise in the city. 

[Jaguars]

Have noticed that western ridge consistently deteriorate on the models. Has not helped downstream. Thanks La Nina. What a horrifically lame winter.


.

[lee59]

From Upton:

The trend with the track however, has been farther south and
east, meaning a colder solution and therefore more in the way of
snow, even along the coast. Much of the area will see plain
rain for Monday, with perhaps a rain/snow mix across the higher
elevation inland. As the low tracks east of the area, and
strengthens, strong cold air advection will ensue, allowing a
changeover to snow from northwest to southeast late Monday night
into Tuesday morning. This time frame is also a period of when
the heavier precipitation is expected. Heavy snow is expected
across the interior, while there will be heavy rain for the
coast.

By early Tuesday morning, the changeover continues, even towards
coastal areas, but by this point, the heavier precipitation will
have ended. This changeover continues moving south and east.
The snowfall forecast will be quite challenging as accumulating
snowfall is possible, even along the coast.

[Winterweatherlover]

What happened to the se ridge? Doesn’t seem to be helping push this storm west when really want it to. 

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, lee59 said:

From Upton:

The trend with the track however, has been farther south and
east, meaning a colder solution and therefore more in the way of
snow, even along the coast. Much of the area will see plain
rain for Monday, with perhaps a rain/snow mix across the higher
elevation inland. As the low tracks east of the area, and
strengthens, strong cold air advection will ensue, allowing a
changeover to snow from northwest to southeast late Monday night
into Tuesday morning. This time frame is also a period of when
the heavier precipitation is expected. Heavy snow is expected
across the interior, while there will be heavy rain for the
coast.

By early Tuesday morning, the changeover continues, even towards
coastal areas, but by this point, the heavier precipitation will
have ended. This changeover continues moving south and east.
The snowfall forecast will be quite challenging as accumulating
snowfall is possible, even along the coast.

Daytime light snow on Tue above freezing in March. Not optimistic. 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Jaguars said:

Have noticed that western ridge consistently deteriorate on the models. Has not helped downstream. Thanks La Nina. What a horrifically lame winter.


.

Yep that doesn’t help either. The ridge making the northern stream dig is progressive/flat. There’s some semblance of blocking but no real cold available. The flow out ahead of this as we see now is easterly and we have no cold air ahead of the storm. That’s not an issue inland and elevations but here it’s death unless the CCB can crank and we can use dynamics to our advantage. A POS like the GFS will just be cold rain to dry slot to mood white rain flakes at the end. 

[mannynyc]

GEFS vs OP GFS. Laughable. What a terrible model. 

[mikem81]

5 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

GEFS vs OP GFS. Laughable. What a terrible model. 

Even the GEFS is laughable as there are hundreds of miles between LP options. Clearly factoring double lows

[mikem81]

This is another solution

 

[North and West]

And yet this would still give the vast majority of the northern part of the subforum their largest snowfall of the year. This winter has been atrocious, so just accept any snow at this point. Sorry it doesn't look good for the city, but I'm honestly glad I moved further away this past year. 

Where do you live now?


.

[Doorman]

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

WPC disco

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Mar 13 2023 - 00Z Thu Mar 16 2023

The heaviest snow will likely occur in the interior northeast
terrain including the Adirondacks, Catskills, Greens, Berkshires,
Worcester Hills, Monadnocks, and Whites where WPC probabilities
for 6 inches are above 80% on D2, and reach 50-80% for 12 inches
in these same areas. In the valleys, snow totals will likely be
less, but intense ascent could still prevent extreme shadowing on
the e/ne flow, and WPC probabilities for 6+ inches are above 50%
even in the lower elevations all the way up the coast of Maine
despite that area being impinged upon by drier air and being more
removed from the low center as it moves east instead of northeast
late. For the I-95 corridor, there is good potential for a period
of heavy snow to develop on the back side of the system near the
coastal front, and while WPC probabilities for NY to Boston are
pretty low for 2-4 inches, the guidance has trended a bit more
aggressively for this area, and there are several members in the
WSE plumes that suggest heavy accumulations even to the coast.
While confidence in major impacts and heavy snow accumulations is
greatest inland across the higher terrain, the potential still
exists for a significant snowstorm for NYC to Boston as well.

 

THE DARTBOARD   

 

 

 

[Doorman]

[Sportybx]

4 minutes ago, Doorman said:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

WPC disco

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Mar 13 2023 - 00Z Thu Mar 16 2023

The heaviest snow will likely occur in the interior northeast
terrain including the Adirondacks, Catskills, Greens, Berkshires,
Worcester Hills, Monadnocks, and Whites where WPC probabilities
for 6 inches are above 80% on D2, and reach 50-80% for 12 inches
in these same areas. In the valleys, snow totals will likely be
less, but intense ascent could still prevent extreme shadowing on
the e/ne flow, and WPC probabilities for 6+ inches are above 50%
even in the lower elevations all the way up the coast of Maine
despite that area being impinged upon by drier air and being more
removed from the low center as it moves east instead of northeast
late. For the I-95 corridor, there is good potential for a period
of heavy snow to develop on the back side of the system near the
coastal front, and while WPC probabilities for NY to Boston are
pretty low for 2-4 inches, the guidance has trended a bit more
aggressively for this area, and there are several members in the
WSE plumes that suggest heavy accumulations even to the coast.
While confidence in major impacts and heavy snow accumulations is
greatest inland across the higher terrain, the potential still
exists for a significant snowstorm for NYC to Boston as well.

 

THE DARTBOARD   

 

 

 

Basically they aren’t sure what’s going to happen yet . Everyone is still in for the possibility of a big storm but it’s wait and see ! 

[Picard]

I'm under a WSW for 6-12".  

Meanwhile, Mount Arlington, in Morris County, probably 7-8 miles away as the crow flies, has no advisory of any sort up yet.

Interesting setup.  Looks like I'm close to either a couple of inches or many times that, or something in between.  This will be fun to nowcast.

 

[JustinRP37]

24 minutes ago, North and West said:

Where do you live now?


.

Up in Patterson, NY. Not far from Thunder Ridge. 

[North and West]

I'm under a WSW for 6-12".  
Meanwhile, Mount Arlington, in Morris County, probably 7-8 miles away as the crow flies, has no advisory of any sort up yet.
Interesting setup.  Looks like I'm close to either a couple of inches or many times that, or something in between.  This will be fun to nowcast.
 

.

[jayyy]

3-6 would be a very good event at this time of year for NYC. 

Indeed. Double digit snowfalls for CPK is extremely rare in march. Think there’s been one or two since the 1950s or some shit like that. It typically takes a near perfect evolution and unseasonably cold air to make it happen. Cold air just wasn’t on tap for the coastal plain this year. Damn western trough snaked all of our cold air. -PNA and +EPO for most of the season ain’t gonna cut it. DC to NYC metro relies heavily on cross polar flow for cold air. Just wasn’t a thing this season.

[Tatamy]

22 minutes ago, Picard said:

I'm under a WSW for 6-12".  

Meanwhile, Mount Arlington, in Morris County, probably 7-8 miles away as the crow flies, has no advisory of any sort up yet.

Interesting setup.  Looks like I'm close to either a couple of inches or many times that, or something in between.  This will be fun to nowcast.

 

It’s looking like there will be a sharp gradient from south to north with snow amounts.  It looks this will be approximately from Routes 46 and 10 and 287 and amounts will increase quickly with elevation as you go north from there.  The snow will mainly fall Monday night into Tuesday in those areas.  

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

19 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Indeed. Double digit snowfalls for CPK is extremely rare in march. Think there’s been one or two since the 1950s or some shit like that. It typically takes a near perfect evolution and unseasonably cold air to make it happen. Cold air just wasn’t on tap for the coastal plain this year. Damn western trough snaked all of our cold air. -PNA and +EPO for most of the season ain’t gonna cut it. DC to NYC metro relies heavily on cross polar flow for cold air. Just wasn’t a thing this season.

Washington DC and New York City Are different animals for winter and winter storms. It’s like comparing New York City and Boston.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

25 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Indeed. Double digit snowfalls for CPK is extremely rare in march. Think there’s been one or two since the 1950s or some shit like that. It typically takes a near perfect evolution and unseasonably cold air to make it happen. Cold air just wasn’t on tap for the coastal plain this year. Damn western trough snaked all of our cold air. -PNA and +EPO for most of the season ain’t gonna cut it. DC to NYC metro relies heavily on cross polar flow for cold air. Just wasn’t a thing this season.

Since 1956 there have been 4 10 plus inch snowfalls in March in NYC. 

Near misses April 6 1982 with 9.6, March 22 1967 9.0 inches , March 21, 2018 8.4, March 2 2009 8.3, March 14 2017 7.6, March 5 2015 7.5. Most of these at 10 inches recorded somewhere within the city boundaries. It’s not as rare as everyone seems to believe. People have short memories.

[jayyy]

Washington DC and New York City Are different animals for winter and winter storms. It’s like comparing New York City and Boston.

True. Except they failed for nearly the same exact reasons this year. Can include Philly and Baltimore in that same bucket. Lack of cold air, blocking, no western ridge, a constantly flexing SER, etc.

[jayyy]

Since 1956 there have been 4 10 plus inch snowfalls in March in NYC. 
Near misses April 6 1982 with 9.6, March 22 1967 9.0 inches , March 21, 2018 8.4, March 2 2009 8.3, March 14 2017 7.6, March 5 2015 7.5. Most of these at 10 inches recorded somewhere within the city boundaries. It’s not as rare as everyone seems to believe. People have short memories.

4 times in 70 years is rare my dude.

[Picard]

6 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

It’s looking like there will be a sharp gradient from south to north with snow amounts.  It looks this will be approximately from Routes 46 and 10 and 287 and amounts will increase quickly with elevation as you go north from there.  The snow will mainly fall Monday night into Tuesday in those areas.  

It'll be interesting to see where the watches/warnings go up and how they align with the final totals in our area.  I'm at exactly 800 feet verified by GPS and topo map.  Parts of Morris County, Jefferson, Oak Ridge, Mount Arlington, are a few hundred feet higher than me, as are other parts of Sparta.  Even a portion of Rockway sits over 1000 feet.  

If anyone remembers March 31 - April 1, 1997.  We had a very elevation driven intense storm up here.  I remember leaving work in Morris Plains to a rain/snow mix, and nothing on the ground, to over a foot with stuck and abandoned cars on Route 15 once I hit the higher parts of Jefferson and into Sparta.  I was a kid all of 22 at the time, driving a stupid Saturn sedan back and forth to work.  I still don't know how I made it home in that thing.

 

[RI Rob]

So this is a lost cause in the city right?

[sussexcountyobs]

22 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

It’s looking like there will be a sharp gradient from south to north with snow amounts.  It looks this will be approximately from Routes 46 and 10 and 287 and amounts will increase quickly with elevation as you go north from there.  The snow will mainly fall Monday night into Tuesday in those areas.  

This is looking like a pure elevation event. Probably 700-800 ft and higher. I could be wrong? But that's what it looks like to me at this juncture. 

[lee59]

It may be a pure elevation event, for those in Manhattan go to the observation center on the Empire State building. 

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Since 1956 there have been 4 10 plus inch snowfalls in March in NYC. 

Near misses April 6 1982 with 9.6, March 22 1967 9.0 inches , March 21, 2018 8.4, March 2 2009 8.3, March 14 2017 7.6, March 5 2015 7.5. Most of these at 10 inches recorded somewhere within the city boundaries. It’s not as rare as everyone seems to believe. People have short memories.

This storm definitely can produce if it comes together right (although it's hanging on by the thinnest of threads here since the 18z Euro dropped another turd a few minutes ago). It's harder for sure but the right setup can produce. It's just that this is not an especially favorable setup for snow at any point in the year much less now. Having to overcome howling easterly winds from 45 degree water isn't where anyone near NYC wants to get started into a snow event. This inverted trough crap also came back on all the modeling which is the nail in the coffin. It's a great setup for the Catskills and Berkshires which don't need the cold setup we do and will get buried on the easterly upslope flow.

[jm1220]

Just now, lee59 said:

It may be a pure elevation event, for those in Manhattan go to the observation center on the Empire State building. 

At some point it may be but with this inverted trough that pinches off a low, we're essentially facing the same outcome as a low hugging the coast and coming inland. The offshore low needs to take over very quickly to mute that effect but models show now that it won't, either from the southern stream flung way out at sea, chasing convection, sloppy phase, whatever the problem. There's always a problem this "winter"/turd in the punchbowl.