RU848789 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 13 minutes ago, hooralph said: Over in SNE forum, many have made mention the Kuchie could be more accurate. They're wrong, at least for what the NAM is showing, with great growth, heavy rates and surface temps dropping to around freezing (Kuchera only looks at the max column temp)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, weatherpruf said: Always bear in mind I am completely clueless. I don't deny it. A man's got to know his limitations.....but damn wouldn't that be a thing of beauty if it verified? we all have that child of wonder inside of us, nothing wrong with displaying it 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Clearly need to see some other models coming on board. FV3 is still warm and north, as is the RGEM. That is, if you're looking for the insane amounts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Wxoutlooksblog said: Though the insane high amounts now shown on the models are possible, forecasting this storm I would wait one more model run before going crazy. Tomorrow is going to be all rain. There's 12 more hours to alert the public and 36 more hours of shopping time. And half of this 24" of snow for LGA falls on a northwest wind. Very unusual but with those vertical velocities it's possible but extremely rare. So for now, I'm going for 6-12" for the NYC Metro with more north and west and higher elevations. Winter Storm Watches should be up for the entire area no later than tonight. WX/PT Right, earlier I had said to wait for 12z runs today, might need to extend that to 0z tonight now lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 this is all that needs to be seen. carry on 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just posted this elsewhere as a reality check, but damn if this verifies or even close to it, it makes our winter, given what we've gotten so far. The modeling gods wouldn't take this away from us now, would they? :>) This is not a forecast - it's just one model run, but it's a doozy... We've officially been NAM-ed, as the 12Z NAM which just came out shows the potential of this highly complex, very powerful nor'easter. This snowfall map is crazy and the snow falls after almost everyone gets an inch of rain on Monday (the transition to snow is by about 1-3 am Tuesday for most and is over by late Tuesday night). This kind of possibility is why so many have been following this so closely. We could still mostly whiff and get mostly rain for CNJ/NENJ/NYC and even much of NNJ/EPA, but this model run shows what is possible in this kind of explosive setup. Also, we're not 5 days out, we're 24-30 hours from the start of the event late Monday morning. Reminds me of the NAM for Jan 2016's blizzard, where it was the first model to sniff out the huge potential (about 48 hrs before the event, iirc). Stay tuned folks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Welp… we just been NAMd! Geez 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 New RGEM is waaaaay more subdued for NYC. Not saying things aren't improving but needs to be a lot of caution before going crazy with a big snowstorm now in the city.NAM can easily yank it right back at 18z and we need to see the other globals at 12z to observe any trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I was going to ask about gfs and then realized with daylight savings not out until 11:30. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: New RGEM is waaaaay more subdued for NYC. Not saying things aren't improving but needs to be a lot of caution before going crazy with a big snowstorm now in the city.NAM can easily yank it right back at 18z and we need to see the other globals at 12z to observe any trends. The RGEM hasn’t really liked this storm the whole time for NYC, I know it is slightly warm biased but it’s part of the reason I’m very cautious with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I think just west of the city on out might get hammered here. Dynamic cooling and a dumping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: The RGEM hasn’t really liked this storm the whole time for NYC, I know it is slightly warm biased but it’s part of the reason I’m very cautious with this. Like a 5 degree difference since the ccb never gets going. My guess is the nam is out to lunch but we'll know in a few hours if it has any support 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Blizzardo said: I think just west of the city on out might get hammered here. Dynamic cooling and a dumping! Or 36 with snow showers and no stickage...easy forecast right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Just posted this elsewhere as a reality check, but damn if this verifies or even close to it, it makes our winter, given what we've gotten so far. The modeling gods wouldn't take this away from us now, would they? :>) This is not a forecast - it's just one model run, but it's a doozy... We've officially been NAM-ed, as the 12Z NAM which just came out shows the potential of this highly complex, very powerful nor'easter. This snowfall map is crazy and the snow falls after almost everyone gets an inch of rain on Monday (the transition to snow is by about 1-3 am Tuesday for most and is over by late Tuesday night). This kind of possibility is why so many have been following this so closely. We could still mostly whiff and get mostly rain for CNJ/NENJ/NYC and even much of NNJ/EPA, but this model run shows what is possible in this kind of explosive setup. Also, we're not 5 days out, we're 24-30 hours from the start of the event late Monday morning. Reminds me of the NAM for Jan 2016's blizzard, where it was the first model to sniff out the huge potential (about 48 hrs before the event, iirc). Stay tuned folks. Whenever people make fun of the NAM I always point to Jan 2016. It does well in specific set ups. Though I'll admit that event was much more in its wheelhouse than this one is. The old E-E rule worked rather well in classic set ups like February 1983, January 1996, PD2 2003 and January 2016. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: Whenever people make fun of the NAM I always point to Jan 2016. It does well in specific set ups. Though I'll admit that event was much more in its wheelhouse than this one is. The old E-E rule worked rather well in classic set ups like February 1983, January 1996, PD2 2003 and January 2016. Miller A/hybrid. It brought the heavy snow further north and the other models followed. This setup is much more complicated so something has to give one way or the other 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Miller A/hybrid hybrid is Miller C right? I think PD2 2003 was that. intuitively I think the NAM works best in "snow vs nothing" scenarios not snow vs rain ones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Fools gold.My favorite thing about potential storms is seeing names here that I’ve never seen before.. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Just posted this elsewhere as a reality check, but damn if this verifies or even close to it, it makes our winter, given what we've gotten so far. The modeling gods wouldn't take this away from us now, would they? :>) This is not a forecast - it's just one model run, but it's a doozy... We've officially been NAM-ed, as the 12Z NAM which just came out shows the potential of this highly complex, very powerful nor'easter. This snowfall map is crazy and the snow falls after almost everyone gets an inch of rain on Monday (the transition to snow is by about 1-3 am Tuesday for most and is over by late Tuesday night). This kind of possibility is why so many have been following this so closely. We could still mostly whiff and get mostly rain for CNJ/NENJ/NYC and even much of NNJ/EPA, but this model run shows what is possible in this kind of explosive setup. Also, we're not 5 days out, we're 24-30 hours from the start of the event late Monday morning. Reminds me of the NAM for Jan 2016's blizzard, where it was the first model to sniff out the huge potential (about 48 hrs before the event, iirc). Stay tuned folks. Good analysis however it is important to note the difference in the synoptics between this potential event and Jan 2016. With this one it will be highly dependent on exactly where the IVT sets up and also elevation. Jan 2016 was a much different setup. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just crazy with the NAM showing a huge snowstorm while the RGEM gives us basically all rain. We've certainly seen this situation many times before with storm threats though. Pretty often we don't have a good idea until right before an event. Hoping to see other models look good today ... we definitely need much more than just the NAM since that's a crazy model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Tatamy said: Good analysis however it is important to note the difference in the synoptics between this potential event and Jan 2016. With this one it will be highly dependent on exactly where the IVT sets up and also elevation. Jan 2016 was a much different setup. January 2016 may be the only storm we will ever have where both Allentown and JFK saw over 30 inches lol. Straight latitude storm. Both my places got over 30", will probably never happen again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 well that was a nice quick tease the NAM did, RGEM, ICON brought most of us back to reality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Preface by saying I'm not a met. But I DO know that the NAM usually overstates QPF and must always be taken with a grain of salt. The fact that there is some validation from the ECMWF makes me raise an eyebrow, though. But I wouldn't get too excited based strictly on the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keno19 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I hate to disappoint many but long island will be getting rain. With temps 45-50 warm ground in place. No arctic air in place, stronger March sun angle. 500mb upper energy too far north. Dynamic must be perfect and intense . Too much against. Also watch as storm starts the bulk of the qpf will be rain so watch 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Please show maps for ICON and RGEM…. Also to note it’s not just the NAM showing big potential there also is the UKMET, EURO, HRRR and RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilsonvoid1 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 well that was a nice quick tease the NAM did, RGEM, ICON brought most of us back to reality.But icon has been the worst model ever at least NAM Has a better name and has scored I'll cook here and there Icon has never scored anything. rgem is a good model but I'm sorry to tell you I'll take Nam and euro over iKON and rgem anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Please show maps for ICON and RGEM…. Also to note it’s not just the NAM showing big potential there also is the UKMET, EURO, HRRR and RAP I dont even look at the icon but the rgem is concerning 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, wilsonvoid1 said: But icon has been the worst model ever at least NAM Has a better name and has scored I'll cook here and there Icon has never scored anything. rgem is a good model but I'm sorry to tell you I'll take Nam and euro over iKON and rgem anytime . Taking NAM over RGEM can lead to big disappointment. It’s also not like NAM showed this every run, it’s one run. It’s ok to be excited though but I always take a cautious approach. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilsonvoid1 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Taking NAM over RGEM can lead to big disappointment. It’s also not like NAM showed this every run, it’s one run. It’s ok to be excited though but I always take a cautious approach. although I agree with you the euro the UKMET the Na m are pretty much all on board for at least a 6 inch snow storm for New York City let's see what happens is still it's still early but I like the odds right now I like the odds a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The RGEM is an outlier with the low coming to shore much farther West than pretty much every other model. That’s the big difference and why we get more rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 If NAM were right (rare prior to 6 hours in advance) we would have normal or above normal snowfall for winter 2022-2023..lol. WX/PT 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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