LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: The NBM has edged up to 2.3" as of 12z. well that's interesting, I feel like you're getting more optimistic too, but I'd still be very hesitant making a higher than 4" forecast for the city and coast, you know the climo here and the type of antecedent airmass we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Reverse mar2001? Lol Crazy nam run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Holy... I think people would justifiably lose their sh!@ if this happened. Even 6-8 would be a huge story for us in March here. Even 3-5 would be a welcome sendoff. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: well that's interesting, I feel like you're getting more optimistic too, but I'd still be very hesitant making a higher than 4" forecast for the city and coast, you know the climo here and the type of antecedent airmass we have. I think up to 4" is a good call for the city at the moment but if the 12z runs hold then it may be time to up them. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, weatherpruf said: I think people would justifiably lose their sh!@ if this happened. Even 6-8 would be a huge story for us in March here. Even 3-5 would be a welcome sendoff. @weatherpruf getting into it!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I imagine they will throw up a Winter Storm Warning here with the afternoon update. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Get the rgem and gfs on board and we're good...lol yeah right 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3k Nam is a Northern Jersey bomb 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, ILoveWinter said: I think up to 4" is a good call for the city at the moment but if the 12z runs hold then it may be time to up them. yeah anything more should be a "day of" call, let's see how things trend the rest of the day. I did tell people to wait for the 12z runs today before jumping ship lol. May need to extend that to 0z tonight at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 hour ago, SRRTA22 said: Wondering if this a case where we see a 1-3" of snow followed by 1-3" of sleet , maybe more? I could see this being a major sleet storm Soundings, at least on the GFS don’t show a lot of sleet. It’s mostly rain or snow or a rain snow mix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Less than 48 hours from showtime would be nice to have some sort of consensus 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Newman said: 3k Nam is a Northern Jersey bomb Show Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, NJwx85 said: Show Kuchera 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Over in SNE forum, many have made mention the Kuchie could be more accurate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The cutoff kinda reminds me of Jan 2015 on the Nam runs. Sharp gradient from Philly to Trenton to NYC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheticus Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Fools gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nam CCB Ownage!!!! Don’t remember the last time I posted that 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: forecast for my area south of I-80 has been upped to 8-12 now and a winter storm warning, it is the furthest south and furthest west county under a winter storm warning Are you ready for another 8” + up there? The Poconos seem to be the big winner recently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 HRRR and Rap shows this nicely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Newman said: The cutoff kinda reminds me of Jan 2015 on the Nam runs. Sharp gradient from Philly to Trenton to NYC And the same models not biting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Tatamy said: Are you ready for another 8” + up there? The Poconos seem to be the big winner recently. The trees have bending over....I'm worried by the weight of the snow plus the high winds over 30 mph forecast here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: And the same models not biting Wasn't there a similar cut off for Boxing Day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, LibertyBell said: Wasn't there a similar cut off for Boxing Day? Way west of NYC but that was due to subsidence west of the death band 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, Newman said: 3k Nam is a Northern Jersey bomb LOL - I'm in the bullseye....I'll take it as is please ! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Wasn't there a similar cut off for Boxing Day? Cutoff for that storm was over NW NJ. Major drop off West of MMU 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: And it's still not done. Even at 7:1 that's nearly a foot in the city It'll be at least 10:1 with good growth in the DGZ with the incredible lift and supersaturation we're going to have up there and surface temps now down to 31-32F during the height of the storm - CCB FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @weatherpruf getting into it!!! Always bear in mind I am completely clueless. I don't deny it. A man's got to know his limitations.....but damn wouldn't that be a thing of beauty if it verified? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Though the insane high amounts now shown on the models are possible, forecasting this storm I would wait one more model run before going crazy. Tomorrow is going to be all rain. There's 12 more hours to alert the public and 36 more hours of shopping time. And half of this 24" of snow for LGA falls on a northwest wind. Very unusual but with those vertical velocities it's possible but extremely rare. So for now, I'm going for 6-12" for the NYC Metro with more north and west and higher elevations. Winter Storm Watches should be up for the entire area no later than tonight. WX/PT 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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