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March 13-14th Nor'easter Threat


NJwx85
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3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

How can u be so confident? The euro just showed 8" in the city.. these models are all over the place.  Complex system.  I don't think they'll have it figured out till tommor night 

Relying on a norlun feature to produce has never worked. Not sure what the Euro is doing that other models aren’t but it seems basically on its own. 

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Kuchera is an awful algorithm, though and often quite wrong, especially in moderate to heavy snowfall rate scenarios, where the ratios are largely set by the crystal formation in the DGZ, which can be fantastic regardless of the warmest temp in the column, which is the only variable Kuchera looks at - and assumes ratios get lower when that temp is above 32F, regardless of where in the column.  So one could have fantastic growth rates/high ratio snow falling and Kuchera might still calculate a low ratio if the surface is at 34F, which is nonsense, since the surface goes from 34F to 32F once rates exceed melting and a frozen layer is established on the ground.  Wrote a far longer post on Kuchera's suckage a couple of years ago - might try to dig it up.  Having said all that, with modest to low rates and surface temps above 32F, Kuchera is better than 10:1 for guesstimating accumulation, but I also like the 10:1 maps, since they indirectly also always provide the QPF, whereas Kuchera doesn't.  

I’m interested if you can find it


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41 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Debbie downer

 

 

 

Just kidding you're likely right 

We're chasing ghosts tbh.  The soundings are awful.  The 32 degree line couldn't be further away from the city on these runs.  The interior could do really well but they won't exactly be cold either if the models are correct. 

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This has never been a major snowstorm for the coast. The Euro had 3-4 runs showing something big and has backed up ever since. The UKMET had it 1 or 2 runs. The NAM shouldn’t even be discussed. This is a miller B in mid March and the model consensus strongly favors climo. I think the threat is over for anyone South of I-84.

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3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

We're chasing ghosts tbh.  The soundings are awful.  The 32 degree line couldn't be further away from the city on these runs.  The interior could do really well but they won't exactly be cold either if the models are correct. 

Apparently the models would have to be really awful with dynamic cooling and be off by like 5 degrees 

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4 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

canadian looks decent for points in westchester, rgem is fire fire too. gfs is a proven crapshoot so lets see what the euro is talking about. we earned one this winter

Offshore low cranks sooner, ends the inverted trough garbage and builds a CCB that clips most of us. The heavy amounts will shift around and it’s impossible to know where bands would set up, but that’s what we need to see near the coast to have a shot. 

GFS is a convoluted mess that hopefully is just the model confused with the setup and not knowing what to emphasize. 

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