Eduardo Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I’m traveling to Albany for work this week. Might be my only chance to see more than 1/2” of snow on the ground this winter. What a ratter of a season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: How can u be so confident? The euro just showed 8" in the city.. these models are all over the place. Complex system. I don't think they'll have it figured out till tommor night Relying on a norlun feature to produce has never worked. Not sure what the Euro is doing that other models aren’t but it seems basically on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Kuchera is an awful algorithm, though and often quite wrong, especially in moderate to heavy snowfall rate scenarios, where the ratios are largely set by the crystal formation in the DGZ, which can be fantastic regardless of the warmest temp in the column, which is the only variable Kuchera looks at - and assumes ratios get lower when that temp is above 32F, regardless of where in the column. So one could have fantastic growth rates/high ratio snow falling and Kuchera might still calculate a low ratio if the surface is at 34F, which is nonsense, since the surface goes from 34F to 32F once rates exceed melting and a frozen layer is established on the ground. Wrote a far longer post on Kuchera's suckage a couple of years ago - might try to dig it up. Having said all that, with modest to low rates and surface temps above 32F, Kuchera is better than 10:1 for guesstimating accumulation, but I also like the 10:1 maps, since they indirectly also always provide the QPF, whereas Kuchera doesn't. I’m interested if you can find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, anthonyweather said: I’m interested if you can find it . I bet you are… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I bet you are…Mmmhm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The 0Z gfs is now mainly rain to Rockland and Putnam counties….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 GFS says peace out everybody. I’m leaving. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Swing and a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Wth is going on with some of these models?? Convective feedback issues? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Jaguars said: Swing and a miss . Yup. Wayyyyy out to sea. Southern stream racing out ahead. No phase. Forky mentioned yesterday he wouldn't be shocked if went out to sea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, White Gorilla said: Wth is going on with some of these models?? Convective feedback issues? Such a fine line. Need to phase at the perfect time 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Yup. Wayyyyy out to sea. Southern stream racing out ahead. No phase. Forky mentioned yesterday he wouldn't be shocked if went out to sea The low may as well go to London at this point, good call by Forky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Gfs still hammers places inland. Rockland and westchester are also mainly wet on that run. Albany and points east into the western MA elevations jackpot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 GFS still having feedback issues. Too many debby downers on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 41 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Debbie downer Just kidding you're likely right We're chasing ghosts tbh. The soundings are awful. The 32 degree line couldn't be further away from the city on these runs. The interior could do really well but they won't exactly be cold either if the models are correct. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 ^#debbiedowner 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Another double barrel low on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, mannynyc said: GFS still having feedback issues. Too many debby downers on this forum. Aside from “possible” feedback issues…. At times this forum is totally unreadable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Yup. Wayyyyy out to sea. Southern stream racing out ahead. No phase. Forky mentioned yesterday he wouldn't be shocked if went out to sea Would be our luck in a winter of dreadful inland runners and cutters to have the final bullet be from an OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Cmc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 canadian looks decent for points in westchester, rgem is fire fire too. gfs is a proven crapshoot so lets see what the euro is talking about. we earned one this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 This has never been a major snowstorm for the coast. The Euro had 3-4 runs showing something big and has backed up ever since. The UKMET had it 1 or 2 runs. The NAM shouldn’t even be discussed. This is a miller B in mid March and the model consensus strongly favors climo. I think the threat is over for anyone South of I-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: Cmc this guy gets it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: We're chasing ghosts tbh. The soundings are awful. The 32 degree line couldn't be further away from the city on these runs. The interior could do really well but they won't exactly be cold either if the models are correct. Apparently the models would have to be really awful with dynamic cooling and be off by like 5 degrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Apparently the models would have to be really awful with dynamic cooling and be off by like 5 degrees I mean this sounding on the cmc isn't too bad 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Cmc looks decent but I wonder how much of that is the norlun feature, the low still looks pretty Far East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: I mean this sounding on the cmc isn't too bad Problem is one model jumps on board 3 more jump off. If the ukie and euro show something similar I might say gfs is out to lunch 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The cmc undergoes faster rapid intensification so that probably helped. Still not optimistic but nice to finally see a decent run from a model I sorta trust. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, vegan_edible said: canadian looks decent for points in westchester, rgem is fire fire too. gfs is a proven crapshoot so lets see what the euro is talking about. we earned one this winter Offshore low cranks sooner, ends the inverted trough garbage and builds a CCB that clips most of us. The heavy amounts will shift around and it’s impossible to know where bands would set up, but that’s what we need to see near the coast to have a shot. GFS is a convoluted mess that hopefully is just the model confused with the setup and not knowing what to emphasize. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: The cmc undergoes faster rapid intensification so that probably helped. Still not optimistic but nice to finally see a decent run from a model I sorta trust. You just continue to throw the euro run out? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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