March 13-14th Nor'easter Threat

[Winterweatherlover]

3 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Maybe take off 75%

Why so low inland? 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

44 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

weak el nino is good for new england, we want closer to a strong one down here

Strong El Niño’s stink for here. What criteria do you use for good here? A mild low snow winter with the chance for one historic storm. No thanks, I’ve seen that already and I’ll pass. 

[Tatamy]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

lol brings back such "nice" memories of the 80s and early 90s.

Even the Poconos won't get 6 inches from this will they-- especially the southern Poconos around Lake Harmony, at 2,000 ft asl?

 

How did your snow pack hold up today?

[hudsonvalley21]

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Why so low inland? 

Surface and mid level air temps along with sun angle. Then warmer ground temps. That’s my thoughts.

[nycwinter]

3 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Strong El Niño’s stink for here. What criteria do you use for good here? A mild low snow winter with the chance for one historic storm. No thanks, I’ve seen that already and I’ll pass. 

compared to this la nina winter i would gladly take a mild el nino  winter with a historic storm..

[George001]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We should all be excited to track this but I am noticing alot of Debbie downers on here.

Last storm of the season. Let's go out with a bang.

Yeah, this storm has a lot of potential. The airmass is bad but the low is deepening a lot so it can create its own cold air. Ultimately it comes down to low location.

[Winterweatherlover]

2 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Surface and mid level air temps along with sun angle. Then warmer ground temps. That’s my thoughts.

True but if mainly snow and very heavy should be able to overcome it. Higher elevations def favored thus time of year but even valleys north of I84 should get at least a foot if the current setup holds.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Just now, nycwinter said:

compared to this la nina winter i would gladly take a mild el nino  winter with a historic storm..

If you even get the historic storm. Most strong El Niño winters you won’t. Occasionally you luck out. 

[justinj]

Expecting all rain here on LI with a little snow at the end. 

[hudsonvalley21]

3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

True but if mainly snow and very heavy should be able to overcome it. Higher elevations def favored thus time of year but even valleys north of I84 should get at least a foot if the current setup holds.

Yes it’s possible. Elevation comes into play. For example, last nights event, I had 0.50” on grassy surfaces for the total accumulation. At 125’ in elevation on Storm King mountain, there was 3” at 1,100’.

[HeadInTheClouds]

12 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Surface and mid level air temps along with sun angle. Then warmer ground temps. That’s my thoughts.

Not up here. NWS Albany saying they expect 8-10:1 for much of storm. 

[Franklin0529]

Anyone got eps?

[RU848789]

7 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Notice here at 72hrs when the low is SE of Montauk, the direction of the 500mb flow. The low is about to mature but the flow is generally out of the SE. That doesn't really allow a mature CCB/comma head to develop and spread snow well west of the low. We want all this to happen sooner. The focus of the moist feed is into New England.

Here by 78hr the 500mb low is closed off and there's a mature CCB with moisture being brought west around the closed low. From here the surface low stacks and starts to weaken since there is no longer a way to evacuate air aloft over top of the low. But see how where it closes off is a great spot for interior New England. We want that 75 miles SSW or so. The crashing upper air heights as you can see there also brings cold air down to the surface.

7 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Another way to look at it-the 700mb low and vertical velocity (lift). Notice how it is well placed for New England because these dynamics get going a little too late for NYC. You want to be just NW of the 700mb low to get into the really good/intense banding. Here's 72hr

78hr-at this point we're probably getting some wraparound snow around the closed/stacked upper low but you can see overall the lift is weakening because the low is stacked. We can see clearly how we want this dynamic happening sooner/SW for our subforum. It's the problem we have all the time with these late developing Miller B type lows. But this is the GGEM outcome, GFS was more favorable.

And before 72hr we're too warm in the preceding airmass, and we don't get the benefit of strong lift/dynamics to help overcome it unless you're inland and above probably 500-600ft.

Thanks so much for the clear, detailed explanation, although it took me a little more time to digest it and looking at the 12Z Euro maps at 500 mbar and 700 mbar and comparing them to the ones you showed really helped.  At 78 hr one can see how much further east the CMC closed off 500 mbar low is vs. the Euro and at 78 hr.  Now let's see if I remember this for more than 2-3 model cycles, lol.  

 

 

And at 78 hr one can easily see how much further NE the CMC 700 mbar low is vs. the Euro, such that NW of the CMC 700 mbar low is New England and for the Euro that's far NNJ/NYC/LHV.  

 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

 

Thanks so much for the clear, detailed explanation, although it took me a little more time to digest it and looking at the 12Z Euro maps at 500 mbar and 700 mbar and comparing them to the ones you showed really helped.  At 78 hr one can see how much further east the CMC closed off 500 mbar low is vs. the Euro and at 78 hr.  Now let's see if I remember this for more than 2-3 model cycles, lol.  

 

 

And at 78 hr one can easily see how much further NE the CMC 700 mbar low is vs. the Euro, such that NW of the CMC 700 mbar low is New England and for the Euro that's far NNJ/NYC/LHV.  

 

Yes we would definitely want the Euro depiction of it closing off sooner and a little further SW than the GGEM has. The storm really doesn’t go to town until those upper lows close off and heights crash to bring cold air in. The initial precip is really from a frontal boundary of sorts caused by an inverted trough that brings in warm air on the east side of it which is where we start off. 

[hudsonvalley21]

7 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Not up here. NWS Albany saying they expect 8-10:1 for much of storm. 

Hope it verifies for you. 

[jayyy]

Rockland county and northern westchester are legit in the who the F knows zone for this one.

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

How did your snow pack hold up today?

hold up lol, it snowed until 1 pm and a total of 8 inches, I'm afraid of losing some trees because the weight of the snow is so heavy on them.  And there is ice under the snow, the snow is really wet and heavy so it looks like the bottom layer melted and refroze.  Going down to 26 tonight, it's already 29.

[LibertyBell]

30 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

If you even get the historic storm. Most strong El Niño winters you won’t. Occasionally you luck out. 

two out of three isn't too shabby (82-83 and 15-16) vs 97-98

although other strong el ninos which weren't "super" have also been good like 57-58

It always depends on blocking if you dont have that enso doesn't matter, they'll all be bad.

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

How did your snow pack hold up today?

I'll post some pics from today in the 3/11 thread.

edit-- posted 4 to show what it looks like on the trees.

[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Strong El Niño’s stink for here. What criteria do you use for good here? A mild low snow winter with the chance for one historic storm. No thanks, I’ve seen that already and I’ll pass. 

For now I'll say anything better than this season is good

I might revisit that next season if it's 60 in December and raining lol

 

[wilsonvoid1]

two out of three isn't too shabby (82-83 and 15-16) vs 97-98
although other strong el ninos which weren't "super" have also been good like 57-58
It always depends on blocking if you dont have that enso doesn't matter, they'll all be bad.

97-98 we ended up getting a surprising snowstorm that no one called, ended up with 5.5 inches on march 22nd i think if i remember correctly!


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[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

97-98 we ended up getting a surprising snowstorm that no one called, ended up with 5.5 inches on march 22nd i think if i remember correctly!


.

Yes, hoping we can get that again, it would be nice to see something like that in this kind of 'winter'

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

97-98 we ended up getting a surprising snowstorm that no one called, ended up with 5.5 inches on march 22nd i think if i remember correctly!


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5.0” on the 22nd and 5.5” for the season.

[Winterweatherlover]

30 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Rockland county and northern westchester are legit in the who the F knows zone for this one.

The way the winter has gone I’d say expect to be in the wrong side of the gradient but I’m with you that I have no idea for that area. 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

5.0” on the 22nd and 5.5” for the season.

Don on average when is our last accumulation of the season? I feel like over 50% of the time it is on or before the 24th?

 

[jdj5211]

For me, the final 0z model runs to lock this track in. NAM up first. 

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, jdj5211 said:

For me, the final 0z model runs to lock this track in. NAM up first. 

Not sure it’ll be locked in by tonight. I’m not expecting much but have resigned myself to keep tracking the likely final event of the “winter”.

[White Gorilla]

5 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

For me, the final 0z model runs to lock this track in. NAM up first. 

Don't think anything is locking tonight, though we can look for greater trends or model convergence.  I have a feeling we willbe now casting this thing when it arrives. 

[Jaguars]

For me, the final 0z model runs to lock this track in. NAM up first. 

Agreed. If we’re going the wrong direction on this run suite it’s fat lady time.


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[Stormlover74]

Not to get too off track but here's a link to the surprise snow of 3/22/98

https://www.nytimes.com/1998/03/23/nyregion/on-a-spring-day-winter-shows-up-with-snow.html

After just one day on the job, spring took a break yesterday and surprised New Yorkers who awoke to a storm that dropped five inches of snow -- the most in the city in more than two years.

Only one to three inches had been predicted for New York City yesterday, and many people said they had not heard the forecast.