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March 13-14th Nor'easter Threat


NJwx85
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  On 3/11/2023 at 9:50 PM, donsutherland1 said:

EPS members for NYC:

image.png.ffc8a75fc9d0a27dbc4f54a4f51cd163.png

The number of members with large snowfalls of 10" or more has increased in such areas as Boston, Poughkeepsie and White Plains.

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EPS members with a 4" average getting to 50% is pretty interesting.  The chances of a moderate impact here in terms of snowfall are still on the table.

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  On 3/12/2023 at 12:15 AM, MJO812 said:

 

640d18b228198.png

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I didn't see the outputs on that run but I guess the low consolidates sooner and that inverted trough crap which is where most models produce our QPF from goes away. That's the shot we have for more than just wraparound flakes in NYC. 

Becoming very clear IMO and has been for a couple days that the places to be for this storm are the Helderbergs/N Catskills, Berkshires and Worcester hills. But the NW parts of our subforum do very well also if we can get that slightly quicker consolidation of the storm. 

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  On 3/12/2023 at 12:20 AM, jm1220 said:

I didn't see the outputs on that run but I guess the low consolidates sooner and that inverted trough crap which is where most models produce our QPF from goes away. That's the shot we have for more than just wraparound flakes in NYC. 

Becoming very clear IMO and has been for a couple days that the places to be for this storm are the Helderbergs/N Catskills, Berkshires and Worcester hills. But the NW parts of our subforum do very well also if we can get that slightly quicker consolidation of the storm. 

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Catskills get crushed big time

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  On 3/12/2023 at 12:21 AM, Winterweatherlover said:

I want to let this one go but the euro does good with big storms at least traditionally so it’s reeling me in. 

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it's like the different globals are taking their turns keeping our attention lol

I don't think we have any chance of getting 6" of snow, but a 3-5 inch event is still pretty good, especially this season.

 

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  On 3/12/2023 at 12:22 AM, LibertyBell said:

it's like the different globals are taking their turns keeping our attention lol

I don't think we have any chance of getting 6" of snow, but  3-5 inch event is still pretty good, especially this season.

 

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It’s mostly the euro and one gfs run. The cmc has not really shown anything great any run. The Ukie was showing a huge hit a day ago but has consistently backed off two straight runs. 

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  On 3/12/2023 at 12:26 AM, White Gorilla said:

Definitely deserves a weenie tag as Julian did.  Poughkeepsie and surrounding is NOT getting 27-30.  One can dream though....  I can see the highest Cats getting two feet under this solution. 

 

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I think 1-2 feet pretty possible around Poughkeepsie. Most models seem to really like that area this time around. 

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  On 3/12/2023 at 12:22 AM, LibertyBell said:

it's like the different globals are taking their turns keeping our attention lol

I don't think we have any chance of getting 6" of snow, but a 3-5 inch event is still pretty good, especially this season.

 

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Expect rain from this and if it ends up as something more you’ll be happy. If you’re hoping for/expecting a MECS you’re very likely to get disappointed. Maybe not the worst time to check out Hunter Mountain lol. 

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  On 3/12/2023 at 12:28 AM, jm1220 said:

Expect rain from this and if it ends up as something more you’ll be happy. If you’re hoping for/expecting a MECS you’re very likely to get disappointed. Maybe not the worst time to check out Hunter Mountain lol. 

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lol brings back such "nice" memories of the 80s and early 90s.

Even the Poconos won't get 6 inches from this will they-- especially the southern Poconos around Lake Harmony, at 2,000 ft asl?

 

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  On 3/12/2023 at 12:28 AM, jm1220 said:

Expect rain from this and if it ends up as something more you’ll be happy. If you’re hoping for/expecting a MECS you’re very likely to get disappointed. Maybe not the worst time to check out Hunter Mountain lol. 

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We should all be excited to track this but I am noticing alot of Debbie downers on here.

Last storm of the season. Let's go out with a bang.

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  On 3/12/2023 at 12:28 AM, jm1220 said:

Expect rain from this and if it ends up as something more you’ll be happy. If you’re hoping for/expecting a MECS you’re very likely to get disappointed. Maybe not the worst time to check out Hunter Mountain lol. 

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I think realistically at least most of us are not expecting a MECS but hoping for a 3-6 inch event on the backend. 

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  On 3/12/2023 at 12:15 AM, MJO812 said:

 

640d18b228198.png

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Have seen moderately large discrepancies several times in the past week between snowfall amounts on SV vs those on Pivotal, with SV amouts being much higher and we're seeing it again.  Does anyone know the difference between their snowfall estimation algrithms to know if one or the other is more accurate? 

 

sn10_acc-imp.us_ma.png

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  On 3/12/2023 at 12:32 AM, RU848789 said:

Have seen moderately large discrepancies several times in the past week between snowfall amounts on SV vs those on Pivotal, with SV amouts being much higher and we're seeing it again.  Does anyone know the difference between their snowfall estimation algrithms to know if one or the other is more accurate? 

 

sn10_acc-imp.us_ma.png

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Differences but the pivotal map definitely has the 6+ line further south than the 12z run. 

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  On 3/12/2023 at 12:26 AM, White Gorilla said:

Definitely deserves a weenie tag as Julian did.  Poughkeepsie and surrounding is NOT getting 27-30.  One can dream though....  I can see the highest Cats getting two feet under this solution. 

 

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Also, it’s March. If it was January or February, there would be a higher chance of getting those 10:1 ratios.

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  On 3/12/2023 at 12:33 AM, Winterweatherlover said:

Differences but the pivotal map definitely has the 6+ line further south than the 12z run. 

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Definitely true, as the 12Z has the 6" line roughly around 80 and 18Z has it roughly around 78, a difference of ~20 miles and 20 miles is ginormous to those of us on the fringes of good snowfall, i.e., anyone south of 78.  Still doesn't explain the discrepancy between SV and Pivotal snowfall maps, though.  

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  On 3/12/2023 at 12:29 AM, LibertyBell said:

lol brings back such "nice" memories of the 80s and early 90s.

Even the Poconos won't get 6 inches from this will they-- especially the southern Poconos around Lake Harmony, at 2,000 ft asl?

 

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Depends on where that initial inverted trough precip sets up, should be cold enough in the Poconos for it to be snow. 

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