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March 13-14th Nor'easter Threat


NJwx85
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Just now, LibertyBell said:

But still has the extreme rainfall into California, which is why this year broke records from 1982-83.

That's cause January acted like an El Nino. The December and February (with the latest storms and records) was a west displaced la Nina trough.

It just happens that California went from one pattern to another that hit them hard. Like in 95/96 where each pattern alternation we went into happened to work out for us. The same is happening this year for them.

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6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That's cause January acted like an El Nino. The December and February (with the latest storms and records) was a west displaced la Nina trough.

It just happens that California went from one pattern to another that hit them hard. Like in 95/96 where each pattern alternation we went into happened to work out for us. The same is happening this year for them.

December was also like an el nino..... la nina Decembers are usually a lot snowier here.

This winter was so bad because the first half was like an el nino (Dec to mid Jan) and the second half was like a la nina (mid Jan to Feb).

el ninos are usually backloaded and la ninas are usually front loaded in winter so we got the worst parts of both an el nino and a la nina.

 

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9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That's cause January acted like an El Nino. The December and February (with the latest storms and records) was a west displaced la Nina trough.

It just happens that California went from one pattern to another that hit them hard. Like in 95/96 where each pattern alternation we went into happened to work out for us. The same is happening this year for them.

1995-96 had a three week really bad period in the middle of winter where we were mild and raining and even severe weather with temps in the mid and upper 60s.  It was amazing to go back to cold and snow after that but I guess that reload was needed.  I'm not sure if we can ever have a true 12-13 week full winter of snow and cold, there has to be a pattern relaxation and reload at some point.

 

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12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But still has the extreme rainfall into California, which is why this year broke records from 1982-83.

But isn't a la nina supposed to be dry in California?  I remember previous la nina years were so dry in California that they had forest fires.....in winter!

The PNA was so horrible that the trough dove into CA and brought storms in. Where the trough is also matters. Other Nina’s have the trough inland over the West, this one was well placed to funnel moisture into CA. The storms were also cold so the snowpack built up. El Niño features the Pineapple Express type storms like today’s which pile up less snow but bring a ton of rain. 

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Just now, jm1220 said:

The PNA was so horrible that the trough dove into CA and brought storms in. Where the trough is also matters. Other Nina’s have the trough inland over the West, this one was well placed to funnel moisture into CA. The storms were also cold so the snowpack built up. El Niño features the Pineapple Express type storms like today’s which pile up less snow but bring a ton of rain. 

Right these atmospheric rivers into California are way more common in an el nino, which is why all those records from 1982-83 are being broken.

The PNA being so horrible is separate from the la nina isn't it?  Isn't that part of some multidecade cycle?

 

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45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Being after our greatest winter made it less annoying than most.

The prediction was for 8-16 inches of snow lol

We got 1-2 and closer to 1.

More snow south of us on the Jersey Shore (6-8) and a lot more snow north and northeast of us.

Sort of the same thing happened in April 1996 but we got 4-5 inches here and the dryslot was over the city, while south of us on the Jersey Coast got 6-8 inches and in Suffolk County it was 12-16 inches with blizzard conditions all the way to the Hamptons.

 

9” with that one out in Sayville.  I was living there at the time.

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40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But still has the extreme rainfall into California, which is why this year broke records from 1982-83.

But isn't a la nina supposed to be dry in California?  I remember previous la nina years were so dry in California that they had forest fires.....in winter!

There are no rules anymore.  I think the biggest problem we have with forecasting now is assuming that a+b = c because it always did as long as we’ve been measuring, until now that climate change is messing up all the relationships. 

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3 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I don’t what all the complaining is about. I’ve liked every snow map I’ve seen so far. Not everyone lives in NYC or central Jersey. 

Yeah but you live north of the Tappan Zee which as far as I’m aware is the same latitude as the arctic circle so you getting snow isn’t a big deal. 

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4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Being after our greatest winter made it less annoying than most.

The prediction was for 8-16 inches of snow lol

We got 1-2 and closer to 1.

More snow south of us on the Jersey Shore (6-8) and a lot more snow north and northeast of us.

Sort of the same thing happened in April 1996 but we got 4-5 inches here and the dryslot was over the city, while south of us on the Jersey Coast got 6-8 inches and in Suffolk County it was 12-16 inches with blizzard conditions all the way to the Hamptons.

 

April 9 1996 was a great storm, but there were no Blizzard conditions on LI

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15 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

April 9 1996 was a great storm, but there were no Blizzard conditions on LI

Not verified but on NOAA weather radio I remember hearing their announcements that night about whiteout blizzard like conditions being forecast for the Hamptons and other parts of Eastern Long Island.  1995 was the first year I got a radio with NOAA weather on it and I was so lucky to have that.

It was snowing back here pretty hard too, but nothing like that.

 

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30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Not verified but on NOAA weather radio I remember hearing their announcements that night about whiteout blizzard like conditions being forecast for the Hamptons and other parts of Eastern Long Island.  1995 was the first year I got a radio with NOAA weather on it and I was so lucky to have that.

It was snowing back here pretty hard too, but nothing like that.

 

For the love of God

 

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42 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Not verified but on NOAA weather radio I remember hearing their announcements that night about whiteout blizzard like conditions being forecast for the Hamptons and other parts of Eastern Long Island.  1995 was the first year I got a radio with NOAA weather on it and I was so lucky to have that.

It was snowing back here pretty hard too, but nothing like that.

 

Low viz in S+ but not so windy

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