NJwx85 Posted March 10, 2023 Author Share Posted March 10, 2023 I think the danger is we're three days out and a lot can go wrong. IE the low developing too late or dynamics not being strong enough to cool the BL ect. But as things stand now verbatim, I think most would do very well. It wouldn't be an epic blizzard for the coast but it would easily be the biggest snowfall of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Theoretically on the Euro, most of this subforum sees 12+ hours of sleet or mixed precip which would cut down on totals along the coast. Doubt that happens in reality. We would be under the "death band" for a good 6-12 hours and even though surface temps would be 2-3 degrees above freezing I do believe it would accumulate. Don't models generally account for that or do they just spit out mix or sleet if the surface is above freezing even if all other layers are below? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Theoretically on the Euro, most of this subforum sees 12+ hours of sleet or mixed precip which would cut down on totals along the coast. Doubt that happens in reality. We would be under the "death band" for a good 6-12 hours and even though surface temps would be 2-3 degrees above freezing I do believe it would accumulate. If snow is really falling that hard it would cool down to 32-33. The air would latently cool quickly from the melting flakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilsonvoid1 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 I think the danger is we're three days out and a lot can go wrong. IE the low developing too late or dynamics not being strong enough to cool the BL ect. But as things stand now verbatim, I think most would do very well. It wouldn't be an epic blizzard for the coast but it would easily be the biggest snowfall of the season.i agree with yanks fan euro run keeps us in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 10, 2023 Author Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, romba said: Don't models generally account for that or do they just spit out mix or sleet if the surface is above freezing even if all other layers are below? Model skill is generally poor at surface depictions for mixed precip. Would need to look at soundings to see the full picture which I don't have access too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 10, 2023 Author Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If snow is really falling that hard it would cool down to 32-33. The air would latently cool quickly from the melting flakes. Agreed. Wish we could see Euro soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 I don’t what all the complaining is about. I’ve liked every snow map I’ve seen so far. Not everyone lives in NYC or central Jersey. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Trend from yesterday on the EURO is to capture later. Can't get any later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 39 minutes ago, romba said: This: Vs same run on pivotal Let's not get out hopes too high off of one crazy weenie map, I think the pivotal is more realistic here You will only be seeing 10:1 ratios if you are in a location where banding sets up. Otherwise these just are entertaining digital artwork. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I don’t what all the complaining is about. I’ve liked every snow map I’ve seen so far. Not everyone lives in NYC or central Jersey. Well, the people that live near NYC and central Jersey don't care about what happens in somebody else's backyard with all due respect. In any event, everything needs to align perfectly for those near the coast to see anything significant this time of year and this storm is no different. As usual in March, you guys up in Orange are in a much better spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Tatamy said: You will only be seeing 10:1 ratios if you are in a location where banding sets up. Otherwise these just are entertaining digital artwork. Yes, these totals need to be halved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Trend from yesterday on the EURO is to capture later. Can't get any later. Everything still looks good for some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I don’t what all the complaining is about. I’ve liked every snow map I’ve seen so far. Not everyone lives in NYC or central Jersey. so the nyc ppl should be happy for you and you should then likewise be upset for them. ofc everyone cares abt their back yard and will voice their opinions based on that. PBPs should be unbiased (good for interior, poor for city verbatim etc.) but opinions on models runs after that are just that- opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: Well, the people that live near NYC and central Jersey don't care about what happens in somebody else's backyard with all due respect. In any event, everything needs to align perfectly for those near the coast to see anything significant this time of year and this storm is no different. As usual in March, you guys up in Orange are in a much better spot. yes elevation and latitude plays best this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 10:1 isn’t happening. Use Kuchera. NYC is at best 3-6” on the euro unfortunately. Going to be right on the cusp - nature of the beast with a late forming Miller B. NYC is the swing zone. I’ll be Rockland county (new city) for this one and models are all over the place in that area. The gradient is very steep in the Rockland / orange / westchester zone. 3-6 to 12-20 when moving 20-30 miles in a given direction is a dangerous game to be playing. We should get more clarity on where this low bombs out and gets captured after wave 1 passes through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, romba said: so the nyc ppl should be happy for you and you should then likewise be upset for them. ofc everyone cares abt their back yard and will voice their opinions based on that. PBPs should be unbiased (good for interior, poor for city verbatim etc.) but opinions on models runs after that are just that- opinions. No just tired of everyone’s reference to this sucks, or this won’t work for anyone, it’s a big forum but you’d never know it from all the IMBY comments. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 To be fair I always chime in when a storm is going to impact the north part of the forum but not me (at the extreme southern edge of the suburban metro), and that holds true now as well. Get it! Hope this thing explodes into a burial for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 10, 2023 Author Share Posted March 10, 2023 This sub forum is unique. Not in size but because the climate differs tremendously from West to East and North to South. New England has the same infighting between the NNE and SNE crews. We're all hear to discuss the weather. Not just the weather that is falling or not falling in your backyard, but weather impacting a portion of or the entire region. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, mikem81 said: Great position 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Do u got the frame prior to this? Please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Do u got the frame prior to this? Please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, romba said: Still too far east for big amounts. Need it 75 miles more west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 15 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Great position Not in mid March. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 44 minutes ago, jayyy said: 10:1 isn’t happening. Use Kuchera. NYC is at best 3-6” on the euro unfortunately. Going to be right on the cusp - nature of the beast with a late forming Miller B. NYC is the swing zone. I’ll be Rockland county (new city) for this one and models are all over the place in that area. The gradient is very steep in the Rockland / orange / westchester zone. 3-6 to 12-20 when moving 20-30 miles in a given direction is a dangerous game to be playing. We should get more clarity on where this low bombs out and gets captured after wave 1 passes through 3-6...it's more like 1-3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 18 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Still too far east for big amounts. Need it 75 miles more west I thought we were worried about this storm being a hugger? More west and it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 18 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Still too far east for big amounts. Need it 75 miles more west Why is this storm SO small and why have storms recently been small like this? January 1996 in this position would have heavy snow all the way back to the midwest. January 2016 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Why is this storm SO small and why have storms recently been small like this? January 1996 in this position would have heavy snow all the way back to the midwest. January 2016 too. Isn't it a Miller B vs Miller A thing? Big precips field are harder to get with newly redeveloped lows vs older ones that come up from the South and have been pulling in Gulf moisture. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Isn't it a Miller B vs Miller A thing? Big precips field are harder to get with newly redeveloped lows vs older ones that come up from the South and have been pulling in Gulf moisture. Yes, another reason why I don't like Miller B's lol. Miller A's are a snow purist's favorite snowstorm and a lot more fun to track. Add to that the fact that I dislike the term "winter storm"-- a storm is either a snow storm or it isn't. I hate the term "winter storm." I see the media latching on to this term and using it more and more-- which makes me dislike it even more! We should use one of three terms-- snow storm, ice storm, or rain storm. For mixed events, just call them a junk storm. I've also read a reference to Miller C, is that a Miller A/B hybrid of some sort? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Latest EPS ensemble members for NYC: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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