NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 The Euro, GFS and GGEM all have a Nor'easter threat for Monday into Tuesday of next week. 12z Models so far: GFS - Develops late and hammers Eastern New England. GGEM - Coastal hugger. Heavy rain, flipping to snow for the far interior. Near blizzard conditions for the mid and upper Hudson Valley, up into interior New England. Euro - TBD. 00z was similar to the 12z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Crazy uncle. Model runs are dizzying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 58 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Uh that is juiced….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 I can tell you if the Euro looks anything like the Ukie people will stop paying attention to Saturday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: I can tell you if the Euro looks anything like the Ukie people will stop paying attention to Saturday lol What if Saturday AND next week both look like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Sheeze, have to look at all the details and in between frames but that looks promising https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf&p=sfcmslp&rh=2023030912&fh=120&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 The Euro is going to be a major hit (precip wise) Storm at 96 hours is developing off the VA Capes with precip breaking out over the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Euro and Ukie combo used to be deadly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 Euro hour 102. Surface temps start off in the lower 40's and fall into the mid-upper 30's along the coast. Looks like a paste job for the interior crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 Incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Having a real hard time changing over at the coast even with a good track https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023030912&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Mixes at the coast by 120, huge hit inland. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023030912&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: Having a real hard time changing over at the coast even with a good track https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023030912&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= It's mid March. A track like this in January/February would have produced for everyone but that time has long since passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 Bombs Away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: Mixes at the coast by 120, huge hit inland. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023030912&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Even at hr 126 temps are stuck in the mid 30's at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: It's mid March. A track like this in January/February would have produced for everyone but that time has long since passed. A track like that at that strength should produce for everyone in mid March, just not enough cold air I guess. Still could see it trending a little colder if it's really as strong as the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 Still snowing. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, NJwx85 said: Even at hr 126 temps are stuck in the mid 30's at the coast. Way better than past runs Hopefully it stays 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 NW NJ and the HV just got Euro'ed. Coast flips to snow at the end. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023030912&fh=138&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 Cannot ask for a much more juiced system. This would be a widespread 18"+ about 40 miles inland. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Way better than past runs Hopefully it stays I mean just an absolute monster qpf bomb and sub 970 low, I would sign up for the Euro run today even if half the storm is rain imby. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=qpf_048h-imp&rh=2023030912&fh=138&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Now THATS how you do dynamic cooling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Still snowing. Wondering if it’s showing it stalled or sitting and drifting around off the coast like it did yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 If Forky chimes in it's real. If he doesn't it's a fake. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 The system finally occludes and stalls near Cape Cod on Tuesday night. Over 30 hours of precip from start to finish. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 The timing is part of the problem for the coast, it starts around 5 pm Monday so after a full day of warming. However I've sort of seen this setup before and it usually changes over faster than modeled but then mixes throughout the storm. As depicted this is probably sloppy at the coast and a bomb inland but we'll see if there are any trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Wow. Euro was real close to being historic. We just needed a bit more of northern stream interaction. Big improvements nonetheless with the Euro and CMC backing away from a hugger solution. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Is the trend our friend? We are still a few days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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