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3/10 and beyond... all the waves threats


mappy
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5 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Not long ago New England was in the zone, now Jersey and NYC area looking a little better. As you say, won't take much to include you guys. Still so much uncertainty however.

There's a song in there somewhere.

About us being down this road before. Knowing exactly where it leads. And that's to nothing good. But we stay on it. Hoping this time will be different.

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1 hour ago, DDweatherman said:

I spent last weeks first snow up at Resorts World in Monticello to enjoy some snow. If the euro depiction is right, I’ll be headed back. I have nice comped rooms if anyone wishes to partake. 

 

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

If that's a serious offer... feel free to PM me. I work remote, am increasingly desperate, and am very willing to meet folks.

 

48 minutes ago, Xeonon said:

I too am interested. PM me if serious offer! 

can't wait for the true crime podcast on this one

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5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The St Patty's storm was 2014.  I was talking about the anafrontal wave in March 2015.  The St Patty's storm was a follow up wave but it had enough separation I wouldn't consider it anafront.  The 2015 one was one string of waves the last of which got us as the boundary pressed south under a suppressed TPV.  

This is one way to defeat a SE ridge. Amped up ridge out west with cross Polar flow coming straight south, and a displaced TPV. NAO is so positive that the low h5 heights are displaced into the 50-50 region. Would it still work today? Pretty unusual setup, but might be indicative of what we need going forward.

Composite Plot

 

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

This is one way to defeat a SE ridge. Amped up ridge out west with cross Polar flow coming straight south, and a displaced TPV. NAO is so positive that the low h5 heights are displaced into the 50-50 region. Would it still work today? Pretty unusual setup, but might be indicative of what we need going forward.

Composite Plot

 

Dunno it was an incredibly rare unique setup.  I didn’t see many looks like it in the hundreds of storms in the case studies I did. 

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7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, its better than 12z...cold with precip sliding to our south and east so far.  So, its definitely a net positive

notice how every model run is either just a bit too far North and West or just a bit too far south and east

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

notice how every model run is either just a bit too far North and West or just a bit too far south and east

I did.  But it’s so far past Christmas I am starting to think it’s November already. If so the pattern looks epic. 

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11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, its better than 12z...cold with precip sliding to our south and east so far.  So, its definitely a net positive

It’s actually not that crazy different as it seems on the surface. Not like when it was off by 1000 miles on key features last week!  It handles the NS SS interaction different but the waves are similar. Last run it kept the NS consolidated and phased in to our west. this run the NS stayed split in 2 waves and acted to suppress the SS. We needed an in between solution. It’s gonna move around a lot run to run. But this is the threat that at least has the ingredients to possibly work. 

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