Heisy Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 12z gfs has Northern stream racing ahead around day 7 supplying confluence with southern vort still in the southwest. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Heisy said: 12z gfs has Northern stream racing ahead around day 7 supplying confluence with southern vort still in the southwest. . Noticed that..h5 is different from 6z, I'm guessing this is a good thing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Noticed that..h5 is different from 6z, I'm guessing this is a good thing? Well, that went downhill quickly. Inside runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Watch that low in Ga in about 4 days. That’s new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 As for tomorrow… Precip amounts go down, down, down Down, down, down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, that went downhill quickly. Inside runner I’ll go out on a limb and say that low won’t take that path. May go to Cleveland but not that path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ll go out on a limb and say that low won’t take that path. May go to Cleveland but not that path It had so much promise. Frustrating. But yeah, it's going to change about 20 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: As for tomorrow… Precip amounts go down, down, down Down, down, down I’ve got a very itchy trigger finger to bump the drought thread 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 For this to work we need one of these waves to have the NS phase into the SS not the other way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Big news folks 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 16 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It had so much promise. Frustrating. But yeah, it's going to change about 20 times We have time on our side for a positive change. Maybe by june the GFS will finally nail down a track and we can get a tropical low up the coast 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 The waves around the 20th have the best chance. But we need that NS vortex up over the northern plains and upper Midwest to dig and phase into the SS. Recent runs have it stop and spin which pulls the SS waves to our NW. That needs to either continue east and provide the confluence in front so a SS wave can do it alone, or dive SE and phase in. ETA Gfs does eventually phase but over MO after pinwheeling. We need that NS feature to not stall and continue east. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 CMC, third wave 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: CMC, third wave It’s close enough for that range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s close enough for that range Well yeah, just commenting on the current state. That one is probably our legit best chance this year. If that doesn't work, then I dunno man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 44 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well yeah, just commenting on the current state. That one is probably our legit best chance this year. If that doesn't work, then I dunno man yea i dunno either but it will be almost april then by the so i kinda do know 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ji said: yea i dunno either but it will be almost april then by the so i kinda do know About 30% of my snow last winter came after March 12th. Including 2+ inches on April 18th. This pic was the April 18th storm. We arent done yet. Although with the way this winter has gone I almost wish we were. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 It’s now obvious to me why these waves aren’t going to work for us. These are predominantly NS systems moving ESE from W Canada through the great lakes towards the northern MA coast. What we really need is an active southern stream with lows moving from the south/GOM northeast along the SE coast off OBX/VA beach. The h5 setup that enables this would be more conducive to getting cold air down here to support snow. NS vorts that don’t dig enough won’t get the job done. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 the time frame around march 18th looks to be SS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Can't find soundings, but Euro at 84 hours has us north of 850s with light precip. Prob torching mid levels and sfc is above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 back above 0 at 96. Well that was fun. On to wave 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: the time frame around march 18th looks to be SS Yeah it is. And there is also a nice HP over the top. But it appears to be trailing just a little to far back at this point. That one is probably our most realistic chance if we can get the HP to progress a little quicker and get some cold air forced down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Can't find soundings, but Euro at 84 hours has us north of 850s with light precip. Prob torching mid levels and sfc is above freezing Pivotal isn't out to 84 yet, but here is DC at hr81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Pattern isn’t terrible, but we have to get rid of these ULLs in the Midwest through confluence or even better +PNA response idk….Ensembles favorite lakes and interior again for this time period because of this. Frustrating…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, mappy said: Pivotal isn't out to 84 yet, but here is DC at hr81 That's good, right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That's good, right? Frkng disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 WB 12Z GEFS for late next week, TBD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, mappy said: Pivotal isn't out to 84 yet, but here is DC at hr81 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, H2O said: Best of the week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GEFS for late next week, TBD. Warner Brothers has a GEFS now? Damn 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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