snowmagnet Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ji said: im buying the dusting its giving me. the euro gives me more I want to buy wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Lol. Poured up a nice crisp Brookville Pils. Its no DFH 120 or weed, but it will suffice. Lol. So wave 2–I’ll ride it. I think @CAPEis already riding the wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Typical Nino December 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 yay nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3rd wave...GFS about to destroy us....with rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3rd wave...GFS about to destroy us....with rainIt’s meteorlogically impossible in the Mjo phase we are in. Zero chance it’s right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 24 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: I want to buy wave 2. Very subtle spatial and timing differences between the key pieces of energy compared to 12z. The upshot is the southern piece of vorticity is a tad flatter/further south, so the area of precip is focused souther. And a tad colder. Still seems like this may be on its way to something (different). Gotta watch the timing/dig of the NS vort dropping in over MN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 22 minutes ago, Ji said: Typical Nino December Oh darn...I thought that was the fall foliage outlook (lots of reds and oranges and some yellow)! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 3rd wave...GFS about to destroy us....with rain It's close to something better. Have a feeling when all is said and done all 3 of these waves will have been closer than any of the predecessors, but probably not enough, esp for the lowlands. Would be a fitting end lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 All your waves are belong to us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Hate, if you want to hateIf it keeps you safeIf it makes you brave Take, if you want a sliceIf you want a pieceIf it feels alright Don't come over hereAnd piss on my gateSave it just keep it off my wave Keep it off my waveKeep it off my wave, my waveKeep it off my waveKeep it off my waveKeep it off my wave, my wave 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Hate, if you want to hateIf it keeps you safeIf it makes you brave Take, if you want a sliceIf you want a pieceIf it feels alright Don't come over hereAnd piss on my gateSave it just keep it off my wave Keep it off my waveKeep it off my wave, my waveKeep it off my waveKeep it off my waveKeep it off my wave, my wave Soundgarden did it right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just when my mud started to dry, all the waves of rain will moisten it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 We gonna need a bigger block. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 52 minutes ago, Ji said: yay nino It doesn’t matter what longwave pattern we get when there is no cold air anywhere!!! But please tell me again how it’s the exact location of the high that’s the problem. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 26 minutes ago, CAPE said: We gonna need a bigger block. It is why the wave tracks under us. The block X displaced Y which causes the wave to dig instead of lift like every other pac wave. But a HL ridge can’t make the airmass under it any colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Ji said: yay nino Nobody has told me yet what the actual use is for the cfs (other than weenieism) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It doesn’t matter what longwave pattern we get when there is no cold air anywhere!!! But please tell me again how it’s the exact location of the high that’s the problem. CFS seasonal almost never has any blue on anomaly plots many months out. Its all relative. Then there is the awful TT graphics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, CAPE said: CFS seasonal almost never has any blue on anomaly plots many months out. Its all relative. Then there is the awful TT graphics. Does the CFS have any actual use at all? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Check out the CANSIPS for next winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It is why the wave tracks under us. The block X displaced Y which causes the wave to dig instead of lift like every other pac wave. But a HL ridge can’t make the airmass under it any colder. Not displaced far enough south. Thus the need for a bigger block! These wimpy fake ass blocks won't work anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: CFS seasonal almost never has any blue on anomaly plots many months out. Its all relative. Then there is the awful TT graphics. I was exaggerating but the reason there is no blue on many long range seasonal products is they can’t decide where to put the cold and because it’s outnumbered in areal coverage like 60/40 or worse all the blue gets eliminated when the smoothing happens. In reality there will be some blue somewhere. But it’s also still indicative of how the odds are increasingly stacked against us. I’m not arguing it can’t snow anymore. I know it can and will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, psuhoffman said: I was exaggerating but the reason there is no blue on many long range seasonal products is they can’t decide where to put the cold and because it’s outnumbered in areal coverage like 60/40 or worse all the blue gets eliminated when the smoothing happens. In reality there will be some blue somewhere. But it’s also still indicative of how the odds are increasingly stacked against us. I’m not arguing it can’t snow anymore. I know it can and will. Still want to see what happens here when we get an "ideal Nino". Maybe next winter. Outside of that, I generally root for -EPO/+PNA w/ cross polar flow and legit cold, progressive pattern, and hope for an outcome just like last Jan/Jan 17/Jan 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not displaced far enough south. Thus the need for a bigger block! These wimpy fake ass blocks won't work anymore. Dunno man, it was a -2.5 std dv block just 3 days ago. And that is what set off the pattern change. Yea it’s slowly fading now and will be waxing and waning bit slowly dissipating overall for the next 2 weeks. But that’s normal. A block is rarely going to maintain a crazy standard deviation for that long. It is an anomaly. The heat bubble that is the block is usually going to cool and weaken over time after the wave break or SSW that creates it wanes. If we need a 3 std block to maintain itself for weeks on end to get snow…. Again this is a matter of degrees. Yea if the block was some historic anomaly it maybe could bully things more in our favor. But we’ve snowed in the past with much less. I really don’t get it. We keep failing in different ways in looks that I know from experience are historically pretty good and the only common thread is one thing…it’s too warm. But everyone else is like “no it’s cause the high was 20 Miles too far north, then the trough axis wasn’t perfect, then it’s cause there want some cross polar arctic blast, then we didn’t have some -20 stdv block”. I mean come on. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Check out the CANSIPS for next winter. That would work. 32.1 and rain instead of 33 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Dunno man, it was a -2.5 std dv block just 3 days ago. And that is what set off the pattern change. Yea it’s slowly fading now and will be waxing and waning bit slowly dissipating overall for the next 2 weeks. But that’s normal. A block is rarely going to maintain a crazy standard deviation for that long. It is an anomaly. The heat bubble that is the block is usually going to cool and weaken over time after the wave break or SSW that creates it wanes. If we need a 3 std block to maintain itself for weeks on end to get snow…. Again this is a matter of degrees. Yea if the block was some historic anomaly it maybe could bully things more in our favor. But we’ve snowed in the past with much less. I really don’t get it. We keep failing in different ways in looks that I know from experience are historically pretty good and the only common thread is one thing…it’s too warm. But everyone else is like “no it’s cause the high was 20 Miles too far north, then the trough axis wasn’t perfect, then it’s cause there want some cross polar arctic blast, then we didn’t have some -20 stdv block”. I mean come on. I was actually just having a little fun with the HH run, and doing the Jaws thing. You should have just laughed and moved on lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ji said: That would work. 32.1 and rain instead of 33 It's like an impressionistic painting. See it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: Still want to see what happens here when we get an "ideal Nino". Maybe next winter. Outside of that, I generally root for -EPO/+PNA w/ cross polar flow and legit cold, progressive pattern, and hope for an outcome just like last Jan/Jan 17/Jan 18. That rarely actually works in the grand sense. It might lead to one or two lucky hits but we are never getting a HECS or a 30”+ winter that way and those are what I root for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 52 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Does the CFS have any actual use at all? This-Meteorology is hard enough 7-10 days out let alone 7-10 months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: I was actually just having a little fun with the HH run, and doing the Jaws thing. You should have just laughed and moved on lol. It’s been a long year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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