paulythegun Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 So I’ve finally checked out lol, but it’s really amazing to me how the pattern of waves tracking from around Alaska down to the Southwest continues until the end of month and shows no signs of stopping. What is it going to take to get a stable +PNA? Here is the 12z euro at the end of the run. Does this pattern look familiar to anyone?!?! A developing block, but we have a SE ridge bridge connecting to it. An overly strong wave coming out of the southwest and seemingly another ready to head that way too. Feel like we’re stuck in purgatory. We’ve been unable to mute the SE ridge all year. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 1 hour ago, Heisy said: So I’ve finally checked out lol, but it’s really amazing to me how the pattern of waves tracking from around Alaska down to the Southwest continues until the end of month and shows no signs of stopping. What is it going to take to get a stable +PNA? Here is the 12z euro at the end of the run. Does this pattern look familiar to anyone?!?! A developing block, but we have a SE ridge bridge connecting to it. An overly strong wave coming out of the southwest and seemingly another ready to head that way too. Feel like we’re stuck in purgatory. We’ve been unable to mute the SE ridge all year. . The SER has been a pest all winter. This is not always but a frequent reality of La Nina. NOAA is projecting a 1.0 + El Nino for next year. I am interested in your thoughts for next winter based on a 1.0 + El Nino. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 2 hours ago, Heisy said: So I’ve finally checked out lol, but it’s really amazing to me how the pattern of waves tracking from around Alaska down to the Southwest continues until the end of month and shows no signs of stopping. What is it going to take to get a stable +PNA? Here is the 12z euro at the end of the run. Does this pattern look familiar to anyone?!?! A developing block, but we have a SE ridge bridge connecting to it. An overly strong wave coming out of the southwest and seemingly another ready to head that way too. Feel like we’re stuck in purgatory. We’ve been unable to mute the SE ridge all year. . You seem surprised, nothing new. The Atlantic SST profiles reinforces the WAR , SST distribution in the Pac is changing. Very difficult to get a long duration + PNA. Not to mention a hyper active jet stream, via the West Pac warm pool, which inhibits the + PNA. Expect more of the same in the years ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 3 hours ago, Heisy said: So I’ve finally checked out lol, but it’s really amazing to me how the pattern of waves tracking from around Alaska down to the Southwest continues until the end of month and shows no signs of stopping. What is it going to take to get a stable +PNA? Here is the 12z euro at the end of the run. Does this pattern look familiar to anyone?!?! A developing block, but we have a SE ridge bridge connecting to it. An overly strong wave coming out of the southwest and seemingly another ready to head that way too. Feel like we’re stuck in purgatory. We’ve been unable to mute the SE ridge all year. . You don't stay in Purgatory forever. This looks promising. I recall an east coast snowstorm that hit South Jersey with 4 inches of snow around late March 1997, I think. Think it was rain around here. Buckle up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 3 hours ago, Heisy said: So I’ve finally checked out lol, but it’s really amazing to me how the pattern of waves tracking from around Alaska down to the Southwest continues until the end of month and shows no signs of stopping. What is it going to take to get a stable +PNA? Here is the 12z euro at the end of the run. Does this pattern look familiar to anyone?!?! A developing block, but we have a SE ridge bridge connecting to it. An overly strong wave coming out of the southwest and seemingly another ready to head that way too. Feel like we’re stuck in purgatory. We’ve been unable to mute the SE ridge all year. . La Niña 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: La Niña Exactly. Even though many have said it's been more Nino like. The La nina augmented Ridge has been very evident and potent. Other factors created a Ninoesque pattern of sorts in some area's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 3 hours ago, Heisy said: So I’ve finally checked out lol, but it’s really amazing to me how the pattern of waves tracking from around Alaska down to the Southwest continues until the end of month and shows no signs of stopping. What is it going to take to get a stable +PNA? Here is the 12z euro at the end of the run. Does this pattern look familiar to anyone?!?! A developing block, but we have a SE ridge bridge connecting to it. An overly strong wave coming out of the southwest and seemingly another ready to head that way too. Feel like we’re stuck in purgatory. We’ve been unable to mute the SE ridge all year. . That da**ed deep western Trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: La Niña It’s technically dead now, but I think we need to go through the summer to fully flush this atmospheric pattern out and allow a new one to set in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 42 minutes ago, Terpeast said: It’s technically dead now, but I think we need to go through the summer to fully flush this atmospheric pattern out and allow a new one to set in. yeah there’s a bit of a lag so it’ll take until mid-late spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 Can't even chase. When did state college become a snowhole?Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 U6 9 hours ago, paulythegun said: Perfect pattern in April lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 On 3/19/2023 at 6:34 PM, IronTy said: Cost is measured in snow on the ground! Basically it's free! No response to my post responding to your failed attempt at calling me out? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 here's something for you guys to drool over for a bit. the CanSIPS is basically forecasting a high-end moderate Modoki that would have an insane February. ideal tropical forcing, neutral PDO, Pacific is mint, and there's a very active STJ along with blocking nice to see, at least 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 wait a second. i forgot. we are going to see 95 Ninas in the next 110 years. and they will all suck. and maybe 5 Ninos in there, but they will be +3.0 and have the Pacific jet stretching to Iowa. the other ten will have no snow because base state 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: wait a second. i forgot. we are going to see 95 Ninas in the next 110 years. and they will all suck. and maybe 5 Ninos in there, but they will be +3.0 and have the Pacific jet stretching to Iowa. the other ten will have no snow because base state Funny…except this region struggles to get snow even in good years. It’s only the extremely rare 1-2 a decade years like 96/03/10/14 that snow comes easy. The rest, even ones you probably remember as great in your area, were a struggle with long frustrating periods and lots of fails mixed with a few victories. That was our climo to begin with, without accounting for any degradation. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Funny…except this region struggles to get snow even in good years. It’s only the extremely rare 1-2 a decade years like 96/03/10/14 that snow comes easy. The rest, even ones you probably remember as great in your area, were a struggle with long frustrating periods and lots of fails mixed with a few victories. That was our climo to begin with, without accounting for any degradation. i know, I was being facetious. either way, next winter seems like the best shot for the MA to get it good in a while. I want to break the spring barrier, but if we're staring down a moderate Nino by June, I will be pretty excited if we get a moderate Modoki I would say there's a much higher than normal chance for a 30"+ winter for BWI. they're that good. even basin-wide would give a great shot at it. just happy that we're incinerating this multi year Nina 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 39 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i know, I was being facetious. either way, next winter seems like the best shot for the MA to get it good in a while. I want to break the spring barrier, but if we're staring down a moderate Nino by June, I will be pretty excited if we get a moderate Modoki I would say there's a much higher than normal chance for a 30"+ winter for BWI. they're that good. even basin-wide would give a great shot at it. just happy that we're incinerating this multi year Nina It can't be worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 Funny to think any weather model can forecast weather accurately more than about 5 days in advance, much less months. When they do, it’s the blind squirrel analogy. Useless waste of time, effort, energy, and money. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It can't be worse It can always be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: It can't be worse I've said that the last five years and it still does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 13 hours ago, WesternFringe said: No response to my post responding to your failed attempt at calling me out? Lol Safe to say he's not gonna take the bait. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Funny to think any weather model can forecast weather accurately more than about 5 days in advance, much less months. When they do, it’s the blind squirrel analogy. Useless waste of time, effort, energy, and money. Trying to advance science is a waste of neither time nor resources. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said: I've said that the last five years and it still does. You're statistically unlikely to see worse than 0.2" inches, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 20 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: You're statistically unlikely to see worse than 0.2" inches, lol Well, there's 0.1, T and the good 'ol goose egg, so there IS that chance... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 17 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: Well, there's 0.1, T and the good 'ol goose egg, so there IS that chance... Yeah it's possible but not probable! Like what are odds that happens the season after being at 0.2? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 26 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah it's possible but not probable! Like what are odds that happens the season after being at 0.2? Lol Well if we get a Super Nino next year, 0" is in play. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 23 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said: Well if we get a Super Nino next year, 0" is in play. 0" is always in play 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 27 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said: Well if we get a Super Nino next year, 0" is in play. I'd argue that it's stastically very unlikely...Takes a lot to go less than an inch 2 years in a row. A cartopper even would be more than 0, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'd argue that it's stastically very unlikely...Takes a lot to go less than an inch 2 years in a row. A cartopper even would be more than 0, lol Yes, but past performance also doesn't predict future results. The probability of getting 0" next winter would be the same regardless of whether we had 0.4" or 50" this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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