3/10 and beyond... all the waves threats

[osfan24]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Is anyone actually still tracking snow? We can't even get a rain storm lately. My seasonal wetland/mosquito breeding ground is barely damp, so I am ok with dry this time of year. I was just outside watering some of the newer trees/plants I put in during early Fall though. That 0.01" of rain last night didn't do much.

Nah, I finally checked out a few days ago, and even then, I felt dumb for trying to convince myself that this time was different and we had a legit chance.

[clskinsfan]

12 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Me thinks that's already happening in the ENSO  (although exactly what we're resetting to is another question altogether, lol)

And since according to you I never post anything of significance...I'll at least post a link about enso:

P.S. I'm a little wary because he said the weenie buzz words of 2002 and 2009, but, nevertheless...

 

 

Forgetting about the severe season. That quick warming in 2002 led to the 02/03 winter. Which of course meant PD2 and the 7th snowiest winter in Winchester history. Hopefully we get a repeat. 

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Is anyone actually still tracking snow? We can't even get a rain storm lately. My seasonal wetland/mosquito breeding ground is barely damp, so I am ok with dry this time of year. I was just outside watering some of the newer trees/plants I put in during early Fall though. That 0.01" of rain last night didn't do much.

It's been an honor and a pleasure tracking with you all.  We are by far the best sub forum on this here board.  Our gallows humor can't be touched.  We lose so much, we've perfected it.  Gonna head back into my summer hibernation in a little bit.  Let us save our energy and fight another day (next winter).   

Now, if we are looking for warmth on a 10 day model, that shit is LOCKED and guaranteed.  We do that like no other around here.  Next week looks goooood end of week

[Steve25]

On 3/15/2023 at 11:14 PM, psuhoffman said:

Keep in mind that’s not a departure from normal as a %. Places like DC can’t have large numerical deficits because they only avg 14” a year compared to somewhere like Deep Creek that averages over 100”. So even if they are less below avg in terms of % they can have a larger numerical deficit over time. 

I was well aware of that when I shared it. I was only illustrating that most of the eastern US has been respectively well below average over the past 4 winters. Obviously the more snow you average, the easier it is to be significantly below average in terms of inches. At the end of the day though, below average is still below average. 

[MN Transplant]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

It's been an honor and a pleasure tracking with you all.  We are by far the best sub forum on this here board.  Our gallows humor can't be touched.  We lose so much, we've perfected it.  Gonna head back into my summer hibernation in a little bit.  Let us save our energy and fight another day (next winter).   

Now, if we are looking for warmth on a 10 day model, that shit is LOCKED and guaranteed.  We do that like no other around here.  Next week looks goooood end of week

If we can nail a near 80 day next Saturday while the cherry blossoms are in full bloom, the tidal basin will be a madhouse.

[pazzo83]

32 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

If we can nail a near 80 day next Saturday while the cherry blossoms are in full bloom, the tidal basin will be a madhouse.

Metro might actually hit some pre-pandemic numbers (right now they are around 300-330k / day during the week vs 600-650k in early 2020).

[Terpeast]

Shared my post-mortem post about this winter, and where we go from here - if anyone's interested in reading.

 

[psuhoffman]

On 3/17/2023 at 10:48 AM, WxUSAF said:

Please respond to Tony Pann’s recent tweet with this info 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Thank you for that...because my goodness I admite optimism but for crying out loud!

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Thank you for that...because my goodness I admite optimism but for crying out loud!

The thing I see most is people playing in the ambiguity that exists here.
 

Two things can be true. This year had a a horrible longwave pattern.  That is attributable to factors “mostly” unrelated to any long term trend.  

But it’s also true that it’s very likely the reason things have been worse than past analogs to similarly hostile pattern periods is that it’s warmer now. 
 

Too many are playing one side of those two facts or the other as if they have to be mutually exclusive when they are not. 

[psuhoffman]

46 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Shared my post-mortem post about this winter, and where we go from here - if anyone's interested in reading.

 

Awesome write up.  It seems we’re on the same page on much of this, including having some of the same questions and musings going forward.  
 

I think unfortunately when the majority of factors indicate a hostile longwave base state we just have to assume it’s going to be awful and not look for the kinds of intervening factors that could  salvage a “decent” outcome in the past. Warm is just too warm anymore for the result to be anything other than bad. 

I share your musing (made a post to maestro speculating this) regarding a Nino. I do think it’s likely to increase our snowfall chances in the moment. But man what if it also ushers in a new even warmer base state like 1998 and 2016 did.  Be careful what you what for.  

[Solution Man]

5 hours ago, stormtracker said:

It's been an honor and a pleasure tracking with you all.  We are by far the best sub forum on this here board.  Our gallows humor can't be touched.  We lose so much, we've perfected it.  Gonna head back into my summer hibernation in a little bit.  Let us save our energy and fight another day (next winter).   

Now, if we are looking for warmth on a 10 day model, that shit is LOCKED and guaranteed.  We do that like no other around here.  Next week looks goooood end of week

Take care my man and thank you…think Spring warmth. On to next season

[Stormfly]

We heard peepers for the first time in Feb after that megatorch.  Gotta be a record.  They are getting louder again.
Before we know it the night will alive from the chorus of the numerous gray tree frogs.  I do want to put up an owl box so the barred owls have a home nearby. 

[BristowWx]

43 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Take care my man and thank you…think Spring warmth. On to next season

Sometimes I think it would be easier to just live in Florida and forget snow. 

[IronTy]

Lmao, I just got home from vacation.   Was expecting at least 10" of snow on the ground.  Instead I got 50F+ and sunny and my viburnums are about to break into song.   Sorry @WesternFringe, there's always next year.  Even a 4th grader coulda figured out that we weren't getting any snow this march.   I guess there's always the hope for a late April snowstorm?   Cows could come home on their own too.   

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Awesome write up.  It seems we’re on the same page on much of this, including having some of the same questions and musings going forward.  
 

I think unfortunately when the majority of factors indicate a hostile longwave base state we just have to assume it’s going to be awful and not look for the kinds of intervening factors that could  salvage a “decent” outcome in the past. Warm is just too warm anymore for the result to be anything other than bad. 

I share your musing (made a post to maestro speculating this) regarding a Nino. I do think it’s likely to increase our snowfall chances in the moment. But man what if it also ushers in a new even warmer base state like 1998 and 2016 did.  Be careful what you what for.  

Hey I've been wondering about this...Why did the Super Niños of 65-66 & 82-83 do the same thing as well? If not, what is it about 98 and 16 that ushered in the warmer state? And also...if it's a moderate Niño a la 02-03 or 09-10 does it have the same effect?

(Sorry I know there's like three questions in one there, lol)

[Chris78]

59 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Lmao, I just got home from vacation.   Was expecting at least 10" of snow on the ground.  Instead I got 50F+ and sunny and my viburnums are about to break into song.   Sorry @WesternFringe, there's always next year.  Even a 4th grader coulda figured out that we weren't getting any snow this march.   I guess there's always the hope for a late April snowstorm?   Cows could come home on their own too.   

I hope you feel validated now.....

[vastateofmind]

1 hour ago, Stormfly said:

We heard peepers for the first time in Feb after that megatorch.  Gotta be a record.  They are getting louder again.
Before we know it the night will alive from the chorus of the numerous gray tree frogs.  I do want to put up an owl box so the barred owls have a home nearby. 

Yep. I noticed the earlier-than-usual emergence of the peepers in our area....about this same time in early Feb that you mention. I wondered then, if the "writing" was "on the wall" for the 2022-23 winter. Personally, I don't mind one way or the other....I enjoy snow, but I despise cold weather now, and really hate to clean up blizzard-like snow accumulations at this point. 

[IronTy]

5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I hope you feel validated now.....

Oh, so validated.  I feel it.   

[clskinsfan]

57 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey I've been wondering about this...Why did the Super Niños of 65-66 & 82-83 do the same thing as well? If not, what is it about 98 and 16 that ushered in the warmer state? And also...if it's a moderate Niño a la 02-03 or 09-10 does it have the same effect?

(Sorry I know there's like three questions in one there, lol)

We can still have Pac puke in a Nino. But it is more rare. Nino's tend to give us lower heights over the Aleutians. Which helps with cold air getting forced further east towards us. Add in an active STJ and I will always take a Nino over anything else. Especially if we can get some blocking. It could be that we will have awful winters with an occasional bomb in Nino years. Like 2016. And if thats what it takes for snow going forward I will take it. Look at this graph of Enso states by year. We have had FOUR Nino's in 18 years. The predominate Enso state has been Nina's. And they are pretty much game over for us. And because we rarely see a neutral anymore, It appears going forward that we will have extremes weather wise with everything. Including strength of Enso state. My fear is that we face Nina's the majority of years going forward due to our changing climate. And if that is the case. We are pretty much screwed.   

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

We can still have Pac puke in a Nino. But it is more rare. Nino's tend to give us lower heights over the Aleutians. Which helps with cold air getting forced further east towards us. Add in an active STJ and I will always take a Nino over anything else.

This much I know--But what I was asking about is what it was about 98' and 16' super niños that was different from 83', 73', 66 in terms of changing the climo (is there like...too much warm air left over or?)

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

We have had FOUR Nino's in 18 years. The predominate Enso state has been Nina's. And they are pretty much game over for us. And because we rarely see a neutral anymore, It appears going forward that we will have extremes weather wise with everything. Including strength of Enso state. My fear is that we face Nina's the majority of years going forward due to our changing climate. And if that is the case. We are pretty much screwed.   

What I don't understand is why a changing climate spawns more ninas...Now I was kinda dummy smacked last time I asked about why warm waters don't mean more niños, but--even after reading a little about trade winds, I still don't understand why/how a changing global climate produces more Ninas. Does something caused by...something else related to climate change cause the winds not to blow a certain way? Someone break it down for a layman...because if the bare bones in enso is trade winds, I don't get what the correlation is to having more of one enso state over another.

[clskinsfan]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This much I know--But what I was asking about is what it was about 98' and 16' super niños that was different from 83', 73', 66 in terms of changing the climo (is there like...too much warm air left over or?)

What I don't understand is why a changing climate spawns more ninas...Now I was kinda dummy smacked last time I asked about why warm waters don't mean more niños, but--even after reading a little about trade winds, I still don't understand why/how a changing global climate produces more Ninas. Does something caused by...something else related to climate change cause the winds not to blow a certain way? Someone break it down for a layman...because if the bare bones in enso is trade winds, I don't get what the correlation is to having more of one enso state over another.

Terpeast mentioned in his thread that it is possible the mid lat SST's are warming faster than the tropical SST's. Possibly make Nina's a permanent base state. I hope not. 

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Terpeast mentioned in his thread that it is possible the mid lat SST's are warming faster than the tropical SST's. Possibly make Nina's a permanent base state. I hope not. 

Sorry for all the questions but I'm just trying to connect the dots here: So one theory/idea is that warmer mid lat SSTs...produces more nina conditions? Do warmer SSTs produce more...trade winds? I think that's the part I'm not getting...What do warmer SSTs have to do with the trade winds that drive ENSO? Thoughts @Terpeast (or anyone else who may know, lol)

[clskinsfan]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Sorry for all the questions but I'm just trying to connect the dots here: So one theory/idea is that warmer mid lat SSTs...produces more nina conditions? Do warmer SSTs produce more...trade winds? I think that's the part I'm not getting...What do warmer SSTs have to do with the trade winds that drive ENSO? Thoughts @Terpeast (or anyone else who may know, lol)

I think it is the temperature difference between the latitudes that matter. 

[Ji]

I hate this time of year. We work so hard to get to winter and then it’s over just like that. Despite a crazy historic subpar year…it was fun not tracking anything with you guys!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

10 hours ago, stormtracker said:

It's been an honor and a pleasure tracking with you all.  We are by far the best sub forum on this here board.  Our gallows humor can't be touched.  We lose so much, we've perfected it.  Gonna head back into my summer hibernation in a little bit.  Let us save our energy and fight another day (next winter).   

Now, if we are looking for warmth on a 10 day model, that shit is LOCKED and guaranteed.  We do that like no other around here.  Next week looks goooood end of week

Yup, pretty much my sentiments, @stormtracker.  Screw it, awful winter, nothing worthwhile.  But it's done, so whatever.  We do have the best subforum in that we can laugh and joke about our failures and just make light of it all.  We also have some very good posters too, of course.  I'm the same as you, will be in the "summer hibernation" for the most part but will check in here and there for fun and to see what's going on.

You have a good spring/summer, too!  And yeah, we'll get back at 'em next winter.

ETA:  Your Youtube "Hitler's Rage" video will be a classic forever!  I've saved the link!  Now that's how gallows humor is done right!  Posting here again for everyone:

 

[Maestrobjwa]

34 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yup, pretty much my sentiments, @stormtracker.  Screw it, awful winter, nothing worthwhile.  But it's done, so whatever.  We do have the best subforum in that we can laugh and joke about our failures and just make light of it all.  We also have some very good posters too, of course.  I'm the same as you, will be in the "summer hibernation" for the most part but will check in here and there for fun and to see what's going on.

You have a good spring/summer, too!  And yeah, we'll get back at 'em next winter.

ETA:  Your Youtube "Hitler's Rage" video will be a classic forever!  I've saved the link!  Now that's how gallows humor is done right!  Posting here again for everyone:

 

This was truly a work of art, hahahaha A forum masterpiece indeed! Oscar for best screenplay...@stormtracker 

[AdamHLG]

That video was very funny!! Great job lol.


.

[WesternFringe]

5 hours ago, IronTy said:

Lmao, I just got home from vacation.   Was expecting at least 10" of snow on the ground.  Instead I got 50F+ and sunny and my viburnums are about to break into song.   Sorry [mention=15338]WesternFringe[/mention], there's always next year.  Even a 4th grader coulda figured out that we weren't getting any snow this march.   I guess there's always the hope for a late April snowstorm?   Cows could come home on their own too.   

It snowed all day here starting at 10:00 am until sundown and then more overnight on 3/12.  It was awesome!! I spent most of the day outside.  Went on a Jebride on my atv.  Sledded with the kids.  Had a fire going in the wood stove.  Had about 4” fall that day and overnight, although the roads didn’t get too bad because of ground temps.  Had some time off of school for the kids and my wife and I (we are teachers) the next day, which was much needed. I posted pics in the morning that day in the observation thread.
Sorry you had nothing in your area and saw no snow when you got home. Nice try at rubbing it in @IronTy, but you picked the wrong guy and failed!  Lol

I invited you out to the highlands (elevation is cool) but you never showed up!  Lolol

[Scraff]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

I hate this time of year. We work so hard to get to winter and then it’s over just like that. Despite a crazy historic subpar year…it was fun not tracking anything with you guys!

The absolute best worst winter ever!