Ji Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Disappointing but not surprising. I guess this is better than a wound up storm that gave the mountains 2 feet and us 2 inches of rain. We will try again next year…. actually its not....id rather have a storm that gives the mountain 2 feet of snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 The only wave we are getting…. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 12 minutes ago, Ji said: not for Loudoun....it trended too far east and we only got 4 instead of 14 Just days before it happened it looked like a non event for everyone, just because you didn't get jackpotted doesnt mean it didn't trend positively. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 14 minutes ago, Ji said: not for Loudoun....it trended too far east and we only got 4 instead of 14 Quit crying. We got 1/2” in Winchester 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 When you get all jazzed up over a day 8 or 9 storm … Play stupid games, win stupid prizes 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 32 minutes ago, 87storms said: Now you're gonna make me do more research lol. The only thing I'd caution against is beating the base state drum too much because, as recently as last year, we had a few decent snowstorms in the region. They weren't widespread mecs/hecs, but compared to this winter, 21/22 is looking better than it felt at the time. I agree with the general idea, but I'm not sold on things changing that quickly. I think this winter was a perfect (non)storm of a dud...similar to how Feb '10 was about as close as it will get to Siberia around here. They were progressive waves in a fast pac flow. We just had cold and got lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Actually maybe our last flakes are coming from the late Friday/early Saturday wave. (Baby wave .001) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 19 minutes ago, Ji said: not for Loudoun....it trended too far east and we only got 4 instead of 14 I didn’t get 4 flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Everything is almost identical to the 6z run that gave us a lot of snow. The one difference is the SS wave had simply trended less amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Amazing how the W trough just keeps pinwheeling out there. Tahoe is going to get buried alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 My greatest snow drought in the last 44 years before this year was 31 years ago back in 91-92 when I received 3.05". That was a + 1.7 El Nino winter. The following winter of 92-93 I skyrocketed from 21 inches below the normal of 24 inches to 11 inches above normal at 35 inches!! The snowy winter of 92-93 was a +0.1 neutral winter. Be careful what you pray for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 1 minute ago, stormy said: My greatest snow drought in the last 44 years before this year was 31 years ago back in 91-92 when I received 3.05". That was a + 1.7 El Nino winter. The following winter of 92-93 I skyrocketed from 21 inches below the normal of 24 inches to 11 inches above normal at 35 inches!! The snowy winter of 92-93 was a +0.1 neutral winter. Be careful what you pray for. Not surprising. Some ninos just don’t play out well. Post-nino neutral winters have been good for us, afaik, while post-nina neutrals have been awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Any 70s popping up yet? Kind of tired of the wind and cold 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 13 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Not surprising. Some ninos just don’t play out well. Post-nino neutral winters have been good for us, afaik, while post-nina neutrals have been awful. 2020??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 16 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Amazing how the W trough just keeps pinwheeling out there. Tahoe is going to get buried alive. I decided to start following some of the snow plow people on YouTube and can finally understand too much snow. It is a foreign concept to me until I see what these guys are doing every day! Incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 The SS wave that was supposed to be our threat doesn’t even exist on the ggem anymore lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 WB 12Z GEFS no longer has any significant precipitation for middle of next week… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Models have done this repeatedly. Different patterns, same results. It is simply folly to “track” discrete events at long leads. Our computing abilities are simply not good enough for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 2020??? Idk, there are always exceptions and 2019 was a weak nino that failed to couple. I haven’t really dug into this and not sure I want to bother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Hard to believe (but true) that the return on investment of my time on this forum this winter is worse than my investment in Silicon Valley Bank. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 two highly anomalous, retrograding -NAOs and nearly nothing to show. I have never seen anything like it... this winter has been an exercise in futility both patterns produced very big storms, but the devil was in the details. what a cursed winter. if we get another one of these we're gonna cash in. no way 3 in a row can be this ineffectual also, the -NAO is not overrated in terms of big storm potential... it is the main index that controls whether you can get a 12"+ storm or just a nickel/dime event due to the way it modulates the pattern over the N Atl 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Not really The Nam ( 3 runs ) and the Euro has several inches for NYC Other than that , the other models didn't really show anything. What? The Ukie and Canadian showed snowstorms as well. Euro GFS showed big hits for the lower Hudson valley for days. Things fell apart for NYC metro big time within the final 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Euro Lucy got us again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 What a difference in one day. Big lesson for me this year is to see if we can get a specific threat inside 5 days and on more than one model, otherwise don’t take it seriously. WB 12Z EURO compared to yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 the wave amplifying in the Pacific crushed the ridge in the SW US. what a surprise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 but hey the Rockies now are able to get their 1873rd blizzard of the year! good for them, the ski resorts must be struggling 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 the wave amplifying in the Pacific crushed the ridge in the SW US. what a surpriseYay, another 12 feet of snow for the Cali mountains lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 What a difference in one day. Big lesson for me this year is to see if we can get a specific threat inside 5 days and on more than one model, otherwise don’t take it seriously. WB 12Z EURO compared to yesterday.An inland low surrounded by 4 highs, what could go wrong . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 1 hour ago, Rvarookie said: Any 70s popping up yet? Kind of tired of the wind and cold Maybe! Do the 10+ day head fakes apply equally to warm temps though? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 57 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: two highly anomalous, retrograding -NAOs and nearly nothing to show. I have never seen anything like it... this winter has been an exercise in futility both patterns produced very big storms, but the devil was in the details. what a cursed winter. if we get another one of these we're gonna cash in. no way 3 in a row can be this ineffectual also, the -NAO is not overrated in terms of big storm potential... it is the main index that controls whether you can get a 12"+ storm or just a nickel/dime event due to the way it modulates the pattern over the N Atl Work for who? It has actually been 5 anomalous -NAOs without producing much if any snow here since we had the last affective one in 2018. I wrote about it back after the December fail that one of the reasons for our snow drought over the last 7 years is that blocking is not working at the same rate it used to. It's still too small a sample though to say its more than just a random thing. But combined with some other unsettling trends its worrying. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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