Ji Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I really don’t want to go down this path anymore, we still have hope we can do this later…but if we did get a 58 repeat today it would probably fail and people would say “but the h5 track was to our north and the primary got to Chicago and there was no epo help so the airmass was too warm” not realizing 58 overcame all that AND we use to snow in flawed setups all the time. Probably 80% of all those storms I case studied had some flaw. That’s why I go mad when we have one decent setup after another fail during our least snowy period ever and each time someone picks apart that flaw that will invariably be there in any storm as the reason it didn’t snow as if we are Atlanta and need every single thing to be 100% perfect to snow. euro day 10 has your warm snowstorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 My wave 3 looks good on the euro at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2” of snow for IMBY on Monday would be blizzard like. Sure. I’ll go ahead and believe the Euro. It’s NEVER wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, Amped said: Euro day 10 looks good. The March 18th snowstorm call I made should at least start by the end of the day. It always does. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Wave 1 on the Euro is Deep Creek's biggest storm of the winter, believe it or not. 6-8" which is telling for how bad this winter has been across this area. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 As expected the best snow signal for the coastal plain is centered on March 18th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 @NorthArlington101 my two dates (before and after the 20th) show on eps. Threat for 18-19th Threat for 22-23 Both feature a perfect longwave configuration. West based -NAO, 50/50, trough digging to our west and SS dominant. Probably won’t be cold enough but that’s another issue unrelated to the pattern. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 fwiw 18z hrrr looked nice for wave 1 4 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 50 minutes ago, Amped said: The March 18th snowstorm call I made should at least start by the end of the day. 49 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: My wave 3 looks good on the euro at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 hour ago, DarkSharkWX said: Crushes NYC and SNE I'll take 15" in Deep Creek 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Both feature a perfect longwave configuration. West based -NAO, 50/50, trough digging to our west and SS dominant. Probably won’t be cold enough but that’s another issue unrelated to the pattern. Astronomical Spring? For 50+ pages of that other thread there was so much hype of how perfect of a setup this weekend would be, only for it not to be. After countless 'nopes' I would love for our likely last real 10 day threat to actually work this time, but this season so far has to absolutely raise some sort of red flag. What is the confidence level that this time, it's real? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Look how far north the primary was! Yeah, the h5 low was to the north, but look how far south the jet streaks dug... well into the gulf, florida, and off GA. No wonder it was a juiced QPF bomb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 36 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said: Astronomical Spring? For 50+ pages of that other thread there was so much hype of how perfect of a setup this weekend would be, only for it not to be. After countless 'nopes' I would love for our likely last real 10 day threat to actually work this time, but this season so far has to absolutely raise some sort of red flag. What is the confidence level that this time, it's real? The pattern is real. I never hyped wave 1. Said it’s starting too far north. But it did get suppressed to the point it secondaries to our south. But with no cold the primary starting out to our NW is no good unless it bombs. The next wave takes a pretty good track. Just not cold enough. The pattern matches our best march snows! Imo the pattern hasn’t failed. It’s exactly what we hoped. Do I expect there to be more threats with good track systems between March 17-25 yes. Do I have any confidence they end up snow? No. Frankly I’m not confident we can snow easily in any pattern that requires a N Amer domestic airmass to be cold enough. I’ve seen no evidence of it lately. Has anyone else? When was the last time a storm worked with a marginal domestic airmass with no cross polar arctic flow without it being an absolute qpf bomb like 2016? I seriously can’t remember the last time DC got like 4” of snow from some wave that tracked south of them in a typical domestic airmass. I can list dozens from the past but can’t think of any in a long long time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 44 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: fwiw 18z hrrr looked nice for wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Kinda negative given todays 12z was the highest probability of 1” at BWI all winter. 78% using my combined formula. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: When was the last time a storm worked with a marginal domestic airmass with no cross polar arctic flow without it being an absolute qpf bomb like 2016? I seriously can’t remember the last time DC got like 4” of snow from some wave that tracked south of them in a typical domestic airmass. I can list dozens from the past but can’t think of any in a long long time. Wouldn't last January count? (but definitely agree though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Euro gets purple over my house between now and the 15th. That’s something I guessMy parents in SENY get dumped on with 24+. Of course. Said this a week or two ago. Lived in the lower Hudson valley for 25+ years. This setup, late season especially, is almost always a slam dunk for them. We need some serious luck here to score big on waves 2,3, and I guess 4? (22nd-23rd) Not impossible I guess but man, it’d be torture to watch NYC get 2+ feet as we get white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 19 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said: Wouldn't last January count? (but definitely agree though) No there was a true arctic airmass from an epo ridge…yes it was very warm south of the boundary before the storm started but that’s just true all the time now. There is no kimda warm. It’s a torch south of every boundary lately. And DC never got that cold because it never got far into the airmass But the reason that had such a sharp cutoff north was the dry arctic air pressing down on wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 I really don’t want to go down this path anymore, we still have hope we can do this later…but if we did get a 58 repeat today it would probably fail and people would say “but the h5 track was to our north and the primary got to Chicago and there was no epo help so the airmass was too warm” not realizing 58 overcame all that AND we use to snow in flawed setups all the time. Probably 80% of all those storms I case studied had some flaw. That’s why I go mad when we have one decent setup after another fail during our least snowy period ever and each time someone picks apart that flaw that will invariably be there in any storm as the reason it didn’t snow as if we are Atlanta and should need every single thing to be 100% perfect to snow. It’s close, but 58 dug a lot farther S vs what the euro is snowing. Big issue with this one is the HP. It’s really far west and more west than N. You can still see isobars from the primary near Lake Erie here. Torching the BL. We’d need the capture to happen a lot farther S to get into the ccb for dynamics. That highly favors N Pa through Interior SNE right now. NYC has an outside shot too. If you get a flatter wave from the STJ vort maybe NW can get some snow. Our only path to victory I see for the cities is if this capture happens a lot farther S than any model shows right now. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Actually there is kinda warm. But it’s north of the boundaries where it should be kinda cold. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: When was the last time a storm worked with a marginal domestic airmass with no cross polar arctic flow without it being an absolute qpf bomb like 2016? 17-18 and 18-19 had a couple of these, but considering that those are the only examples since pre 15-16, it doesn't bode well. The only consolation of all of this is what I mentioned a while back in your thread where -EPO/+PNA driven patterns seem to be snowier than they used to be before. Like how people assumed 13-14 was an uber lucky fluke given that predominant pattern but then Jan-March 2015 happened. It'll never make up for the snowfall deficit from lost margins on our more typical patterns, but it's the very least of note for when we're dealt those patterns (which given our incoming -PDO might not be that helpful.. although I did read that the current-PDO regime might've started in the 2000s? Hopefully that's the case.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Oceans are on fire. We've got to figure out how to stop these underwater volcanos from continuously erupting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: It’s close, but 58 dug a lot farther S vs what the euro is snowing. Big issue with this one is the HP. It’s really far west and more west than N. You can still see isobars from the primary near Lake Erie here. Torching the BL. We’d need the capture to happen a lot farther S to get into the ccb for dynamics. That highly favors N Pa through Interior SNE right now. NYC has an outside shot too. If you get a flatter wave from the STJ vort maybe NW can get some snow. Our only path to victory I see for the cities is if this capture happens a lot farther S than any model shows right now. . I wasn’t comparing this to 58. I was pointing out 58 was highly flawed with a primary near Chicago, an h5 track through PA, and no arctic air. And we got snow! Yea the high isn’t perfect. Yea the phase isn’t ideal. But a 985 low tracks just east of OC and most get no snow at all. When I examined every 4”+ snow at BWI years ago almost none were perfect. Only the crazy 1996 type storms had everything textbook right. And even some pretty damn big storms didn’t. But a flaw or two used to mean we get 3-6” instead of 12”+. So I roll my eyes when we go wave after wave with no snow at all and somehow each time it’s this one thing or that one thing. It didn’t used to be that hard to get some snow! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Kinda negative given todays 12z was the highest probability of 1” at BWI all winter. 78% using my combined formula. Most folks are 18 times bitten, twice shy! Lol I am all in on these waves in the next two weeks, though. Why not? It is the best look we have had all winter, so it doesn’t make sense to quit tracking now. After that, I am out and hoping for warm weather and outdoor time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 hours ago, clskinsfan said: You see that little snow hole north of Winchester? Yeah. ummm. And the one to the NW, right over my house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Nobody buying what the GFS showing for wave 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nobody buying what the GFS showing for wave 2? Just had some weed AND poured a 120. I'll check it.. 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nobody buying what the GFS showing for wave 2? im buying the dusting its giving me. the euro gives me more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nobody buying what the GFS showing for wave 2? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Just had some weed AND poured a 120. I'll check it.. Lol. Poured up a nice crisp Brookville Pils. Its no DFH 120 or weed, but it will suffice. Lol. So wave 2–I’ll ride it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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