psuhoffman Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: Seeing a better cold push on GFS, see if it leads to a similar 6z outcome . so far so good...as far as I can see so far both a better cold push AND a stronger STJ wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 It is crazy I don’t remember seeing a similar STJ like pattern on the models for a long time now. Sign of next winter? One can hope…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 The high is also positioned further west which will be helpful later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 The high is also positioned further west which will be helpful later on . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 out to 133 the GFS is showing the two trends I want...more suppressive NS flow and more amplified SS 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 so far so good...as far as I can see so far both a better cold push AND a stronger STJ wave. Much better confluence look in SE Canada let’s hope the main shortwave gets its act together in time . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The high is also positioned further west which will be helpful later on That's one thing that has stood out to me. It's plainly obvious (and sensical) that when the High is further west, we get a better feed of cold air and simply a better alignment of all features to help this thing run the coast rather than cut inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 through 150 I still like 12z better than 6z. High is back over IN vs already over MD last run. Storm is slightly slower getting going but SS wave is more amplified and the NS flow over the northeast has a lot more confluence. Money frames are coming up though... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: through 150 I still like 12z better than 6z. High is back over IN vs already over MD last run. Storm is slightly slower getting going but SS wave is more amplified and the NS flow over the northeast has a lot more confluence. Money frames are coming up though... PSU doing pbp? March is a strange month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 through 150 I still like 12z better than 6z. High is back over IN vs already over MD last run. Storm is slightly slower getting going but SS wave is more amplified and the NS flow over the northeast has a lot more confluence. Money frames are coming up though...Main wave a little slower hurts, but I’ll take the upgrades with the HP/confluence over shortwave which will change. If this run had a more organized shortwave like 6z would have been a monster I think. Might be a little sloppy here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: PSU doing pbp? March is a strange month It's hail Mary toss time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 It's starting to get its act together in the northeast gulf now...snowing in north Georgia at 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: Main wave a little slower hurts, but I’ll take the upgrades with the HP/confluence over shortwave which will change. If this run had a more organized shortwave like 6z would have been a monster I think. Might be a little sloppy here . It looks like its coming up now...but the 12-18 hours slower is offsetting a lot of the improvements up top from 6z. But then again 6z was a huge win so...that balancing act isnt necessarily a bad thing. But yea if the SS wave had the same timing as 6z this would have been a monster run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 It's starting to get its act together in the northeast gulf now...snowing in north Georgia at 168. The improved N/S will help keep HP where we need it this run at least . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 At 186 1042 High will it stay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's starting to get its act together in the northeast gulf now...snowing in north Georgia at 168. And that High is getter stronger - in a nice position and goes from 1039 to 1042 between 180 and 186. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Bombs away at 192! One can only hope… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 It's taking too long... flow ahead of the next main pac wave is starting to erode the cold. Storm could also end up suppressed...but this was close enough to a monster solution (the only kind that can work for us really) that I am fine with it. If that SS wave was 12 hours faster and slightly more amped it would have been the exact result we wanted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 It looks like its coming up now...but the 12-18 hours slower is offsetting a lot of the improvements up top from 6z. But then again 6z was a huge win so...that balancing act isnt necessarily a bad thing. But yea if the SS wave had the same timing as 6z this would have been a monster run. Yea, damn close and honestly where we want it at this range anyway. I’d like to see cmc or euro take a step towards this today . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 It's taking too long... flow ahead of the next main pac wave is starting to erode the cold. Storm could also end up suppressed...but this was close enough to a monster solution (the only kind that can work for us really) that I am fine with it. If that SS wave was 12 hours faster and slightly more amped it would have been the exact result we wanted. Canadian improved??. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeDeeHCue Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Buries Atlanta then into Charlotte by 183, enters southern Va strong at 189 heavy snow just south of Richmond at 195 but then a rain storm for DC that disintegrates at 204 and out to sea. damn 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 It was 12 hours too slow...lost it's window. Cuts off too far south and slides east. But the GFS has the setup we need...just needed a slightly faster more amplified SS wave and it would have been a good outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: Canadian improved?? . yes...ggem was perfect except it was just a few degrees too warm. We just have to hope it goes down like the GGEM and its simply a few degrees colder. Not going to over analyze it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Pretty sure Atlanta won’t get buried with snow in late March. Not unless we are talking another Superstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Canadian improved??.Get the N/S lobe out ahead of the main shortwave would have helped, as is a big improvement . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 6 minutes ago, DeeDeeHCue said: Buries Atlanta then into Charlotte by 183, enters southern Va strong at 189 heavy snow just south of Richmond at 195 but then a rain storm for DC that disintegrates at 204 and out to sea. damn Define "buries" Nearly all rain for Atl and Charlotte... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 If 12 hours too slow, what is our window to have this speed up slightly to make it a flush hit? By say 120 hours etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 19 minutes ago, DeeDeeHCue said: Buries Atlanta then into Charlotte by 183, enters southern Va strong at 189 heavy snow just south of Richmond at 195 but then a rain storm for DC that disintegrates at 204 and out to sea. damn Sounds like the fecal cherry on top of this winter's sh*t sundae. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 6 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: If 12 hours too slow, what is our window to have this speed up slightly to make it a flush hit? By say 120 hours etc? It's not that simple... because we are also dealing with the timing of other features...its the play between the NS wave before and after the SS wave that matters also. There is a window between the two where space is open for a SS wave. If you slow down or speed up either of those NS waves it changes the window. This run the SS wave was towards the very end of that window...but the bigger problem was it was too slow and not amplified enough...got caught under the flow and cut off down there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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