Weather Will Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 WB 6Z GFS….fringed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 LOL, looked far better than those totals indicate. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 6z GEFS. Not a bad look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: LOL, looked far better than those totals indicate. Weird. Day 8 clown maps in late March are not high on my list of concerns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 LOL, looked far better than those totals indicate. Weird.It's aprilSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Surface high is exiting stage right on the mean. If there is going to be a storm this period, the inland higher terrain would obviously be favored for frozen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Stronger signal than 0z. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Surface high is exiting stage right on the mean. If there is going to be a storm this period, the inland higher terrain would obviously be favored for frozen.More of a euro look but slightly better than previous runs. Hopefully we get N/S to respond to that -epo ridge that shows up. Whatever we can do to keep confluence. Speed up the pac wave. Whatever it takes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 So let what happened to NYC remind us next time….in any NS SS phase situation never go with the most amplified solution. Especially if it’s the UK/Euro/NAM. Yes overall the euro and uk are good models but those 3 have a bias to over amp systems and are often too fast to complete a phase because of this. If the Gfs/ggem/icon are allAll significantly slower it’s a huge red flag. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 So let what happened to NYC remind us next time….in any NS SS phase situation never go with the most amplified solution. Especially if it’s the UK/Euro/NAM. Yes overall the euro and uk are good models but those 3 have a bias to over amp systems and are often too fast to complete a phase because of this. If the Gfs/ggem/icon are allAll significantly slower it’s a huge red flag. This event is one of the worst modeled events I’ve ever seen at this range. All the models picked up on the storm threat of course, but the run to run changes are crazy… this is the 6z euro vs 00z just 2 days out!What are your thoughts on the day 8-10 threat?. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 20 minutes ago, Heisy said: This event is one of the worst modeled events I’ve ever seen at this range. All the models picked up on the storm threat of course, but the run to run changes are crazy… this is the 6z euro vs 00z just 2 days out! What are your thoughts on the day 8-10 threat? . Complex evolution with a low developing over the Gulf stream then bombing as it interacts with the NS energy. Possibly some convective feedback issues in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 So let what happened to NYC remind us next time….in any NS SS phase situation never go with the most amplified solution. Especially if it’s the UK/Euro/NAM. Yes overall the euro and uk are good models but those 3 have a bias to over amp systems and are often too fast to complete a phase because of this. If the Gfs/ggem/icon are allAll significantly slower it’s a huge red flag. Yep. The Albany area and places E had a watch for 1-2 feet. Since lowered to 8-16”. Poconos 12-18 lowered to 6-12, and even that may be too high. Central Mass is now 6-12. Still a nice storm but a far cry from the storm folks expected. Most models this morning say even those totals are too high. Rough. GFS still says game on for the Albany area into Mass with a major snowstorm but others say not so fast. HRRR barely gets anyone to double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: So let what happened to NYC remind us next time….in any NS SS phase situation never go with the most amplified solution. Especially if it’s the UK/Euro/NAM. Yes overall the euro and uk are good models but those 3 have a bias to over amp systems and are often too fast to complete a phase because of this. If the Gfs/ggem/icon are allAll significantly slower it’s a huge red flag. Throwback to the 6z Euro and 12z Nam from yesterday for up here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 38 minutes ago, Heisy said: This event is one of the worst modeled events I’ve ever seen at this range. All the models picked up on the storm threat of course, but the run to run changes are crazy… this is the 6z euro vs 00z just 2 days out! What are your thoughts on the day 8-10 threat? . It was a delicate setup. A phase along an inverted trough is always tricky for guidance but this was especially so due to the SS wave initially dampening out and escaping leading to multiple waves and convective centers along the trough. The full capture and phase predictably happens much later than some runs indicated. I’ve liked the general setup for weeks no reason to bail now. But we need so much to go perfectly. Imo the biggest risk to the whole thing breaking down would be if the ejecting pac wave once again over amplified too soon and a ridge goes up. It shouldn’t. No really it shouldn’t. Huge epo ridge along with a still -AO/NAO in its decaying stages and a trough just off the west coast SHOULD cause the wave to slide east and amplify in the southeast. But yet there are still quite a few members in the guidance that pump a SE ridge again. It’s absolutely amazing how quickly too. I’ve brought this up a few times. There is always southerly flow ahead of any wave. But lately unless there is EXTREME confluence behind some crazy 50/50 any south flow ahead of any wave immediately pumps a huge ridge. Even when we had cold a couple times way ahead of the next wave the boundary blasts 500 miles north in one day! That’s a huge problem. I know this wouldn’t work in March but think how much snow over the years we used to get from a wave that tracked to our NW from a front end thump. Good luck ever getting that when the second any wave hits the plains the thermal boundary jumps from VA to Quebec in 12 hours. Right now that’s not written in stone and the pattern says that shouldn’t happen but it would be a fitting end to this season if it went down that way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Throwback to the 6z Euro and 12z Nam from yesterday for up here I warned my NYC friends that it was dangerous to get excited. The duel low on both those runs should have been a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I warned my NYC friends that it was dangerous to get excited. The duel low on both those runs should have been a red flag. Agree They rarely work out here. New England is a different story. It was also a red flag when the Nam was alone with the absurd output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 hours ago, osfan24 said: LOL, looked far better than those totals indicate. Weird. The reason for that distribution is because on the coastal plain accumulations this late will be limited...its just a reality...near sea level that close to the coast it just is...and you aren't going to get the usual higher ratio area of good snow outside the heavier bands to the NW of the low either because of the time of year...even in the higher elevations you still need rates this time of year... to see big totals we needed that low tucked just a little closer to the coast. During January that woulid have shown 6-12" over a large area...from banding on the coastal plain and from higher ratios to the NW. This time of year its death band or bust. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 The reason for that distribution is because on the coastal plain accumulations this late will be limited...its just a reality...near sea level that close to the coast it just is...and you aren't going to get the usual higher ratio area of good snow outside the heavier bands to the NW of the low either because of the time of year...even in the higher elevations you still need rates this time of year... to see big totals we needed that low tucked just a little closer to the coast. During January that woulid have shown 6-12" over a large area...from banding on the coastal plain and from higher ratios to the NW. This time of year its death band or bust. This next potential event/pattern look El Niño like to you or any one else? Looks like a pure STJ induced event . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 10 minutes ago, Heisy said: This next potential event/pattern look El Niño like to you or any one else? Looks like a pure STJ induced event . yes very, @CAPE pointed the SS dominant nature of this period also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 17 minutes ago, Heisy said: This next potential event/pattern look El Niño like to you or any one else? Looks like a pure STJ induced event 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: yes very, @CAPE pointed the SS dominant nature of this period also. I do believe that we can sometimes see the next winter showing its hand as we come to the end of one ENSO state. I'd like to think thats the case here, but maybe I'm just cherrypicking and wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 yes very, [mention=1005]CAPE[/mention] pointed the SS dominant nature of this period also. One thing to keep an eye on during 12z runs today is to see if we can get that blocking south of Greenland to improve. 6z GFS looked decent there I think that would help keep lower heights under it to where we need it. 6z eps/control trended that way. Hopefully it can force any shortwaves south of it to strengthen confluence ahead of any wave. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Even if the storm comes next week, Winter is done for me. Work trip to Raleigh next week. I still hope yall get pummeled and I'm following. If it continues on the model, I'll be around for shitty pbp 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 I think we've, hopefully, learned our lesson by now. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 16 times, shame on me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, Its a Breeze said: I think we've, hopefully, learned our lesson by now. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 16 times, shame on me. Pretty much where I am. @Solution Man , post the gif 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Gfs might be too suppressive this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: yes very, @CAPE pointed the SS dominant nature of this period also. El Niño showing up just a tad late for this year...lol But maybe if it can get the wheels going now we rockin' in 9-10 months? (assuming mod niños still work, of course). Official forecast is neutral going into the summer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs might be too suppressive this run Looking that way from what I can see. GFS had 2 thirst traps runs and now this shit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Don’t give up quite yet, next wave….but this is GFS after Day 5, who cares?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Storms still there. 8 days out. That's all that matters at this point. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Next wave (later next week) is too warm and sheared off the southeast coast. If it ever really started?!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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