87storms Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 10 minutes ago, yoda said: Must... turn away... from Day 10... 12z GFS... cannot resist... I don't think the cost/benefit of getting hyped over a 5 day range is worth it at this point, let alone 7-10+ days. We're entering the portion of climo where a 850 warm nose can show up within 24 hrs after a week of tracking. I'd be interested if I was in the higher elevations and I'd like to see a storm before the season concludes, but too much needs to go right once we get past mid-March to get invested. Average high temp is approaching 55 degrees lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 WB 12Z GFS… suppressed…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Well.. 12z CMC at 240 has the same general idea... so I guess? This idea isn't really new. The overall pattern on the means has looked the best for this period, with the possibility of a healthy southern wave ejecting eastward and maybe not having a NS wave eff it up this time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Models are now picking up Phase 2 MJO for the period around Day 10…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS… suppressed…. lol what? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 By the way I have a big meeting in DC that I really need to do in person on the morning of the 23rd, so this storm is a lock!!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, CAPE said: lol what? I don’t even get an inch!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 43 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I don’t even get an inch!!!! That is not a "suppressed" storm. It snows all the way up the coast to SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, CAPE said: That it not a "suppressed" storm. It snows all the way up the coast to SNE. Ok, North and western suburbs are fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 March 23 is the start of Sweet 16, to give you an idea of how far away that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Something is different here. Not like the others. Could still morph into a completely different look, because ya know, 10 days out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Well.. 12z CMC at 240 has the same general idea... so I guess?Euro showed the overall evolution yesterday too. That storm is our best shot. NS relaxes and we get a consolidated SS system. Pattern is fully entrenched at that point. Let’s reel it in. I know, I know, 10 days out, it’ll change…. But this is our best shot yet given the current look. We just need the NS to stay the fuck out of the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 WB 12Z GEFS mean is not nearly as cold as the GFS global for the Day 10 period storm. No go for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 hour ago, jayyy said: The fact that the NAM & Euro both drop over a foot and the GFS says 7-8” at my parents place but there’s no watch or advisory up is pretty wild. Not sure I’ve ever seen such uncertainty this close to a storm for their area. They are typically right around the fall line (87 - NYS thruway is about 7 miles to their south) A true nowcast situation. Hope it doesn’t fail. I’m bringing mid Atlantic mojo with me afterall There are 3 things that would make me go more conservative for NYC metro. First their climo in the metro isn’t that good in March either NYCs biggest Mar snow since the superstorm is 8” in 2018. Before 93 you have to go back to the 60s to get double digits! One 10”+ storm in 50 years kinda indicates it’s very hard to get a huge snow into the metro this late The others are specific to this setup. It’s an inverted trough setup which means there will be more of a SE flow to the NW of the secondary than typical of this was a fully developed with its own circulation. The full phase and development of a closed circulation doesn’t happen until too late for NYC. With a marginal airmass unless they do get bombed the flip to snow could be messy. Lastly the guidance bombing them are doing it eith a meso scale moisture convergence band along the inverted trough. The guidance can’t agree on if that’s real and if so where to put it. That’s like pinning down a line of thunderstorms. Given all that I’d be conservative for the NYC area. Now the higher elevations 25 miles NW of NYC, they could get bombed depending on how quickly it comes together. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: lol what? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Not getting right confluence pattern from N/S this run….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 We getting a solid STJ vort look, not overly strong, problem was the N/S this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 There are 3 things that would make me go more conservative for NYC metro. First their climo in the metro isn’t that good in March either NYCs biggest Mar snow since the superstorm is 8” in 2018. Before 93 you have to go back to the 60s to get double digits! One 10”+ storm in 50 years kinda indicates it’s very hard to get a huge snow into the metro this late The others are specific to this setup. It’s an inverted trough setup which means there will be more of a SE flow to the NW of the secondary than typical of this was a fully developed with its own circulation. The full phase and development of a closed circulation doesn’t happen until too late for NYC. With a marginal airmass unless they do get bombed the flip to snow could be messy. Lastly the guidance bombing them are doing it eith a meso scale moisture convergence band along the inverted trough. The guidance can’t agree on if that’s real and if so where to put it. That’s like pinning down a line of thunderstorms. Given all that I’d be conservative for the NYC area. Now the higher elevations 25 miles NW of NYC, they could get bombed depending on how quickly it comes together. I can definitely understand NYC / LI not getting a watch… but where my folks live 35ish miles NW of the city should for sure. They are just south of Orange County. They have much better climo / higher elevation than NYC. Lived through a bunch of snowstorms up that way while NYC was mid to upper 30s with cold rain or mixing. March makes it more difficult but with 3 major models showing 8-12+, I’m shocked to see no watch or advisory. You’re definitely right about the inverted trough situation. It’s very dicey for that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: I don’t even get an inch!!!! @ravensrule? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 WB 12Z ensembles are a negative through Day 12… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 36 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z ensembles are a negative through Day 12… Spring Its called the FU pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 41 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z ensembles are a negative through Day 12… Good, its over. Donald S posted about a week ago in the NY forum that in winters with very little snowfall during the months of December, January and February the probability that March is going to save the winter is very, very low. That statistic may hold yet again. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 hour ago, frd said: Good, its over. Donald S posted about a week ago in the NY forum that in winters with very little snowfall during the months of December, January and February the probability that March is going to save the winter is very, very low. That statistic may hold yet again. I just want us to get a measley inch to avoid the futility record of 0.2", lol I mean even a dang mixed bag could get us that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 WB 18Z GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 WB 18Z GFS. This one at least has a high to work with 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Ji said: This one at least has a high to work with 100 mile further east and it would of been a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS. At this point I want to see some hits on the ops. I'm done looking at Esembles. Even when they've looks decent it didn't matter 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 This one at least has a high to work withConfluence pattern got worst just like the OP euro. 2023 things. I couldn’t chase either of the Buffalo events this year and it looks like I won’t be able to get up to W MA or Catskills for tomorrow. This has been the worst winter of my life. I think 2001-02 actually had accumulating snow here. Hopefully 23-24 has an Early December event like 02-03 had heh. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 At this point I want to see some hits on the ops. I'm done looking at Esembles. Even when they've looks decent it didn't matterThis is why it went farther Nw, decreased confluence because NS didn’t phase with the tpv in SE Canada. Same crap euro did (though not nearly as bad, but still negative change) Run to run change….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: This is why it went farther Nw, decreased confluence because NS didn’t phase with the tpv in SE Canada. Same crap euro did (though not nearly as bad, but still negative change) Run to run change…. . That's probably the last shot at something this season. Albeit a very small shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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