nw baltimore wx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 This needs to speed up by 6 hours so those of us not used to working a continuous stretch of 5 days a week can have a pity 2-hour delay. eta, sorry @mattie g 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 You see this panel - what's the first thing that pops into your mind? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: You see this panel - what's the first thing that pops into your mind? Too many models? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 10 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: This needs to speed up by 6 hours so those of us not used to working a continuous stretch of 5 days a week can have a pity 2-hour delay. eta, sorry @mattie g I take it back. I'll sacrifice Friday for a virtual day Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: You see this panel - what's the first thing that pops into your mind? Normally, this board would be jumping. Great low position. Shitty airmass. Winter 22-23 yall 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: You see this panel - what's the first thing that pops into your mind? 850s for DC and NW actually never go below 0, but it doesn't matter if the thermals are torched. Crazy how we've gone through the November-March timeframe dealing with mid 30s rainstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: 850s for DC and NW actually never go below 0, but it doesn't matter if the thermals are torched. Crazy how we've gone through the November-March timeframe dealing with mid 30s rainstorms Yeah I was surprised to look at the 00z EURO and see it showing a bit of a storm for 95-west. Guess it wasn't brought up last night. This is a step back from that actually but still "interesting" I guess. Not smart enough to figure out if there is any way for us to steal some more cold air or if we just need this to bomb out/amp up/something like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Bombs to 976, lol. Rain up and down the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m going more with the whole period from about 12 days forward. Look at its forecast from less than 3 days ago for Friday morning. It had the low on the Iowa Minnesota border Yea...this is the GFS for Friday night now This is what it showed when it was still 7 days away... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Bombs to 976, lol. Rain up and down the coast By 132 or so it stalls and hammers NYC/BOS for good measure. Dunno if we can make that happen further south or not. Collective willpower 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: By 132 or so it stalls and hammers NYC/BOS for good measure. Dunno if we can make that happen further south or not. Collective willpower Getting some light snow back into DC at 144 as it goes nuclear around SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 gets to 970. wow. blizzard of 23 for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 30 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: You see this panel - what's the first thing that pops into your mind? This is different...the fact there is snow in the vicinity...and the low isn't 300 miles NW of us...is the pattern change. The fact its too warm is NOT specific to this pattern, that has been a problem a LOT in a lot of patterns over the last 8 years or so...yes I am including 2016 because there was one absolutely perfect track rainstorm that year in Feb also...I got 8" of slop up here but it should have been a 6-10" snowstorm for everyone given the track and time of year but the boundary temps were just too warm. If this fails to produce the amount of snow we want it isn't the pattern failing...the temp fail is not specific to this pattern. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Crushes NYC and SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah I was surprised to look at the 00z EURO and see it showing a bit of a storm for 95-west. Guess it wasn't brought up last night. This is a step back from that actually but still "interesting" I guess. Not smart enough to figure out if there is any way for us to steal some more cold air or if we just need this to bomb out/amp up/something like that. The only way for it to work given what is now the obvious characteristics of the airmass is for what happens up off NYC to happen 150 miles further south. If the storm were to bomb off the VA capes and stall near OC it would dynamically cool the DC area enough to get some snow in the CCB. Whether that can realistically happen...its a rather large ask but not impossible given the blocking in this situation. But we need the most extreme solution to happen and we know from experience that is not where you want to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The only way for it to work given what is now the obvious characteristics of the airmass is for what happens up off NYC to happen 150 miles further south. If the storm were to bomb off the VA capes and stall near OC it would dynamically cool the DC area enough to get some snow in the CCB. Whether that can realistically happen...its a rather large ask but not impossible given the blocking in this situation. But we need the most extreme solution to happen and we know from experience that is not where you want to be. Looking at the 6z ens the 12z OP would've been the most extreme member so I'm curious if we don't see a meager improvement. Think something more dynamic can only help us. If not it's still fun to root for something wicked for someone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 I'm very interested in the correlation PSU showed. That was one of the best pattern correlations I've seen! There's no way we miss out! Too bad we can't see how well computer models would have done leading up to the 1950s and 1960s March storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I'm very interested in the correlation PSU showed. That was one of the best pattern correlations I've seen! There's no way we miss out! Too bad we can't see how well computer models would have done leading up to the 1950s and 1960s March storms. But most of those big March snow analogs were from the 50's and 60's...its legitimate to wonder if those same patterns would produce the same results now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But most of those big March snow analogs were from the 50's and 60's...its legitimate to wonder if those same patterns would produce the same results now. For what it's worth I went back and read some on the 1958 storm. D.C. was just above 4" while nw had over a foot. Correction: D.C. was just under 5" and BWI had 8.4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 march 1958 storm was crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: march 1958 storm was crazy I'm scanning the KU 500mb now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: march 1958 storm was crazy Would be incredible to get a repeat of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I'm scanning the KU 500mb now. Look how far north the primary was! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Would be incredible to get a repeat of that. Strange how the snow maps don't mirror the reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Look how far north the primary was! Also interesting to see the ridge over the Rockies versus the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 hour ago, mappy said: you will take your 0.3 and love it. You see that little snow hole north of Winchester? Yeah. ummm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 46 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: You see this panel - what's the first thing that pops into your mind? Fringed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 18 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Look how far north the primary was! I really don’t want to go down this path anymore, we still have hope we can do this later…but if we did get a 58 repeat today it would probably fail and people would say “but the h5 track was to our north and the primary got to Chicago and there was no epo help so the airmass was too warm” not realizing 58 overcame all that AND we use to snow in flawed setups all the time. Probably 80% of all those storms I case studied had some flaw. That’s why I go mad when we have one decent setup after another fail during our least snowy period ever and each time someone picks apart that flaw that will invariably be there in any storm as the reason it didn’t snow as if we are Atlanta and should need every single thing to be 100% perfect to snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 12z EPS no better for Monday to my eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Euro day 10 looks good. The March 18th snowstorm call I made should at least start by the end of the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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