psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: We did it last year beyond mid April. Maybe that will be the norm going forward. I mean you just get much more amped storms in March and April. And it could be that we need those amped storms to be cold enough to snow going forward. I am looking forward to a Nino next winter. I want to see how an active southern jet works out with the way we currently seem to carry winter temps. Even with some blocking periods it really hasnt been cold. Me too but of course if it is another warm dud those that want to pretend it’s not getting warmer will say “ya but some ninos were bad in the past” and they wools be correct. No one year can prove anything. But at some point there becomes a preponderance of evidence. I am not an authority to say when that point is though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Hey the NAM looks goo- oh no! Not THAT! 1 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Me too but of course if it is another warm dud those that want to pretend it’s not getting warmer will say “ya but some ninos were bad in the past” and they wools be correct. No one year can prove anything. But at some point there becomes a preponderance of evidence. I am not an authority to say when that point is though. Next year when we go from 01/02 to 02/03 people will be begging for it to stop snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 hours ago, Chris78 said: Of course day 10 again but Euro had "that Look" of incoming. Getting late quick though. Why give up now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, psuhoffman said: Why give up now lol Because now I’ll need to stay up an extra hour to watch the Euro cave to a rainstorm. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 18 minutes ago, Ji said: Next year when we go from 01/02 to 02/03 people will be begging for it to stop snowing I'm telling ya...I'm gonna be such a troll to ANYBODY who complains about it snowing a lot--I don't care how much of a warminista they are, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 25 minutes ago, Ji said: Next year when we go from 01/02 to 02/03 people will be begging for it to stop snowing Getting a lot of snow during good years isn’t our problem. It’s being able to eek our way to 10 or 15” in warm years. Lately bad years are totally awful. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 This was the wave we needed models to focus on….not this one… lost our 50/50I guess everything could evolve differently, but not looking good right now. I’m still torn on if I’m headed up somewhere in NE tomorrow night. Might be last shot to see snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 hours ago, WesternFringe said: I would create a thread for the ten of us that live out this way, but then we would get predominantly cold rain once again lol. @Buddy1987is looking like he lives in a good spot for this wave Short term models look solid. Very odd to think we could get snow and a majority of others in the forum will get blanked. Makes no sense. Although neither does this winter… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 21 minutes ago, Heisy said: This was the wave we needed models to focus on…. not this one… lost our 50/50 I guess everything could evolve differently, but not looking good right now. I’m still torn on if I’m headed up somewhere in NE tomorrow night. Might be last shot to see snow . The low is closer to the 50/50 In the second image lol. We need the flow to Be Uber suppressive because every wave ejecting from the Rockies immediately pumps a crazy heat ridge in front of it then cuts north along the thermal boundary it helped push north. Go look at an 850 t anomaly loop and see how fast each pac wave creates a massive heat bubble in front of it the instant it ejects into the plains. So ya we have to root for crazy tight wave spacing. But that’s just not that realistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 The low is closer to the 50/50 In the second image lol. We need the flow to Be Uber suppressive because every wave ejecting from the Rockies immediately pumps a crazy heat ridge in front of it then cuts north along the thermal boundary it helped push north. Go look at an 850 t anomaly loop and see how fast each pac wave creates a massive heat bubble in front of it the instant it ejects into the plains. So ya we have to root for crazy tight wave spacing. But that’s just not that realistic. Yea that pac wave speeding up would help, keep things tighter. I guess I meant there’s more confluent flow near us for the initial wave. We’ll see what happens . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 I know the gfs shows snow, but it's warm outside, and this looks like rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 The low is closer to the 50/50 In the second image lol. We need the flow to Be Uber suppressive because every wave ejecting from the Rockies immediately pumps a crazy heat ridge in front of it then cuts north along the thermal boundary it helped push north. Go look at an 850 t anomaly loop and see how fast each pac wave creates a massive heat bubble in front of it the instant it ejects into the plains. So ya we have to root for crazy tight wave spacing. But that’s just not that realistic. There is a little signal on 18z GEFS for 22-24th, couple decent hits around the region . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, Heisy said: There is a little signal on 18z GEFS for 22-24th, couple decent hits around the region . Yeah 18z is slightly improved. Pretty decent signal for frozen compared to 12z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Have the models accounted for the extra hour of daylight? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 35 minutes ago, Heisy said: There is a little signal on 18z GEFS for 22-24th, couple decent hits around the region . 31 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah 18z is slightly improved. Pretty decent signal for frozen compared to 12z. There are multiple ways to win here. Tight wave spacing with a trailing wave. But also if the next wave were to eject from the pac in prices so it doesn’t amp too early. If the next pac wave were to eject further south that would also help. What we don’t want is a slow pac wave ejecting in one huge amplified bowling ball. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 There is a little signal on 18z GEFS for 22-24th, couple decent hits around the region .Dibs on March 23 - never had a birthday storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 hour ago, Heisy said: There is a little signal on 18z GEFS for 22-24th, couple decent hits around the region . If you include the handful that have a perfect track rainstorm it’s a huge signal for a storm. We just have to hope it’s cold enough. It’s close on the rain members because they indicate some mix in the area, so likely they happen during day and it’s just a few degrees too warm. But a big miller a storm signal is there. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The nam would atleast provide some snow TV tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 9 minutes ago, Chris78 said: The nam would atleast provide some snow TV tomorrow night. WB 0Z 3K NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 positive snow depth change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 00z gfs = the dagger for nyc. Ouch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: 00z gfs = the dagger for nyc. Ouch. good for all the weenies who traveled there to see the big snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 good for all the weenies who traveled there to see the big snowNYC would have been an idiotic place to go to for this storm. Inland? All day. Rain/snow line keeps pushing NW on models. Looks like another Albany special is on tap. Have a feeling Worcester MA will be ground zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 00z NAM said… what storm? Lmao. Complete lack of a SS feature to phase up and it’s a total miss. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 WB 0Z 3K NAM1-2” IMBY on that clown map. Sad that that would be the biggest event of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Watch for 1-2 feet in the capitol region in NY. What a crazy march for them. They’ll get more snow in an hour than we’ve seen in 4 months. Can only laugh at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Wow that’s actually a damn good setup, only 240+ hours away!. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 *looks at 06z GFS at Day 10* 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Looping the 2m temp anomaly map on the 6z GEFS is depressing. Chilly and unsettled throughout March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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