Ji Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 If this storm unfolded as depicted… originating over FL and riding the coast like that with a 50-50 and blocking in place, we’d be talking more than 3-5”Lol in late March?Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Lol in late March?Sent from my SM-A515U using TapatalkIt’s snowed in late march before. Over a foot in DC actually. And my area can certainly get crushed in late march. Not everyone lives where you live bud. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, jayyy said: It’s snowed in late march before. Over a foot in DC actually. And my area can certainly get crushed in late march. Not everyone lives where you live bud. I second this. Around 6 years ago in south jersey we got around 5-6 inches in early April 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 It’s snowed in late march before. Over a foot in DC actually. And my area can certainly get crushed in late march. Not everyone lives where you live bud. It's a beautiful run. Hope it all falls between 7pm and 8amSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 I second this. Around 6 years ago in south jersey we got around 5-6 inches in early AprilYep. Of course the chances are lower than in January - February… but it’s certainly not impossible. The setup is much better for us for the 17th and 21st waves for the reasons PSU has been laying out for the past week or two. A SS driven storm versus a NS driven storm gives us a much better shot at seeing an earlier coastal develop. Late season makes it hard, but not impossible. I’ve seen plenty of late march / early April snows before. Location of course helps, but I won’t be fully tapping out until after the 25th or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 If the 17th and/or 21st waves pan out, they’ll be dubbed the PSU storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 it can snow in late march, but we need some actual cold air. not this milquetoast stuff we have now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 DtSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 9 hours ago, psuhoffman said: This is following a typical timeline progression for a blocking regime. Unfortunately we are running out of time. Weeks ago when it was becoming clear the SSW was propagating and coupling someone asked how I thought the timeline would play out. I pegged March 15-20 as when the improving climo intersects the degrading climo to produce the best threat but that the pattern itself would likely get even better after that. It’s playing out exactly that way. The best threat might come after March 20th anyways but climo is gonna be a real issue. As advertised it has more to do with getting a healthy southern wave to finally eject eastward with a quieter NS. Probably more about improvement out west/shorter wavelengths, and some luck. This hasn't been a typical period of stable, sustained blocking, where it breaks down and we get a big storm. A lot of vorts moving eastward in the NS and flow has remained progressive. That has really been effing our chances. Still have a -NAO/50-50 on this panel. Nice look if it's real. There is actually another wave behind this one. Yeah its getting awful late though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Only 240 hours out. What could go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 LOL, is the JMA serious? 48-72 hours out from the storm’s evolution and it’s showing a Miller A? Frame 1 @ 48 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Frame 2…. 72 hours. What happens in the 12 hours in between? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 .5 - 1” of QPF happens. Lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Other models drive a primary up into freaking Ohio… then we see a coastal low up too far east for us that bombs out south of NE. Appears that the JMA says nope, we’re going to keep the primary show to the south and ride it up the coast. GFS gives most of us a paltry .1 QPF. I know JMA is trash, but what the actual fuck lol Only 48-72 hours out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 52 minutes ago, jayyy said: Other models drive a primary up into freaking Ohio… then we see a coastal low up too far east for us that bombs out south of NE. Appears that the JMA says nope, we’re going to keep the primary show to the south and ride it up the coast. GFS gives most of us a paltry .1 QPF. I know JMA is trash, but what the actual fuck lol Only 48-72 hours out You know what they say…we take the JMA all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Other models drive a primary up into freaking Ohio… then we see a coastal low up too far east for us that bombs out south of NE. Appears that the JMA says nope, we’re going to keep the primary show to the south and ride it up the coast. GFS gives most of us a paltry .1 QPF. I know JMA is trash, but what the actual fuck lol Only 48-72 hours out All models show a track like jma. I don't see where they are driving a primary lowSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 hour ago, jayyy said: Frame 2…. 72 hours. What happens in the 12 hours in between? Rain? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 hour ago, jayyy said: Frame 2…. 72 hours. What happens in the 12 hours in between? Rain. Even for those living in the highlands of Carroll co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 9 minutes ago, snowfan said: Rain. Even for those living in the highlands of Carroll co. Yeah it's because I moved up here almost 2 years ago. There's been nothing lol. I even live at like 1000' elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 35 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Yeah it's because I moved up here almost 2 years ago. There's been nothing lol. I even live at like 1000' elevation. We should have moved to Tucson for snow, apparently... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 37 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: We should have moved to Tucson for snow, apparently... Vegas is also an option Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 South central US. With the mean trough in the west most of the time, they get in on some cold, and frozen with the boundary nearby. Plus that area gets legit severe weather. Literally nothing else appealing about that region though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: South central US. With the mean trough in the west most of the time, they get in on some cold, and frozen with the boundary nearby. Plus that area gets legit severe weather. Literally nothing else appealing about that region though. The don’t have the Delaware beaches…some of the best on the east coast…it’s hard to beat the MA…if we had a normal winter with some snow our mental base state would be much improved…this year was just a donkey punch 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 As advertised it has more to do with getting a healthy southern wave to finally eject eastward with a quieter NS. Probably more about improvement out west/shorter wavelengths, and some luck. This hasn't been a typical period of stable, sustained blocking, where it breaks down and we get a big storm. A lot of vorts moving eastward in the NS and flow has remained progressive. That has really been effing our chances. Still have a -NAO/50-50 on this panel. Nice look if it's real. There is actually another wave behind this one. Yeah its getting awful late though. Spacing issue right now, the incoming pac energy and the buzz saw in the NE causes the shortwave in between to get shredded. We’ll see how it evolves as we get closer. CMC worked out because it elongated the day 7-8 wave, gfs has more of a buzzsaw in the NE and that combined with the incoming pac energy/STJ just shreds it. Problem all year, the ingredients are there, but unlucky timing and things that can go wrong are just going wrong…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 4 hours ago, CAPE said: As advertised it has more to do with getting a healthy southern wave to finally eject eastward with a quieter NS. Probably more about improvement out west/shorter wavelengths, and some luck. This hasn't been a typical period of stable, sustained blocking, where it breaks down and we get a big storm. A lot of vorts moving eastward in the NS and flow has remained progressive. That has really been effing our chances. Still have a -NAO/50-50 on this panel. Nice look if it's real. There is actually another wave behind this one. Yeah its getting awful late though. My area is actually due for a big early April snow. Digging through old coops there were a lot of 6”+ snows in early April in the early 1900s. Even some 12”+. None recently. Of course there is that other thing that could be a reason for that lol. The progression you described is exclusive to a split flow stj dominant pattern. Even none Nino blocking regimes don’t go that way. 2016 for example, while the stj was very active so was the NS and we had to flush a couple miller b waves out of our system earlier that month before we got the NS to quiet down and allow what eventually happened. Anecdotally I’ve observed when we’re on a more noisy pattern and blocking sets in usually it leads to a major amplification in the east but that amplification is likely to be NS dominant. My theory is the blocking forces the NS to buckle and amplify under the block. Our best chance usually comes after as the pattern is deamolifyinh if a SS wave can time up right to take advantage of a temporary relaxation of the flow in the NS. This can sometimes happen in waves as the pattern cycles. 2018 produced more threats after a reload but it was just too late by then. Same is likely here. Might be too late for the first threat even. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 0/2 for the first 2 waves in our " new pattern". Can we finish 0/4 the next week and 0/97 this season? We've had the Chris Davis of winters lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 14 minutes ago, Chris78 said: 0/2 for the first 2 waves in our " new pattern". Can we finish 0/4 the next week and 0/97 this season? We've had the Chris Davis of winters lol. If the GFS is correct Central NC will probably have more snow for the winter than any place east of the mountains in our area lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 C VA into CHO gets 1-3 this weekend on 12z GFS and 12z CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 41 minutes ago, Heisy said: Spacing issue right now, the incoming pac energy and the buzz saw in the NE causes the shortwave in between to get shredded. We’ll see how it evolves as we get closer. CMC worked out because it elongated the day 7-8 wave, gfs has more of a buzzsaw in the NE and that combined with the incoming pac energy/STJ just shreds it. Problem all year, the ingredients are there, but unlucky timing and things that can go wrong are just going wrong… . Shit, I'm looking at the wrong wave, nvm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Shit, I'm looking at the wrong wave, nvm So many potential failures, er waves. Hard to keep track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now