osfan24 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Nice squall line at 210, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Hey ya'll! I truly think I only have myelf to blame for the misfortune of wave 1 and wave 2. I am currently moving up to DC from Atlanta and I will absolutely be bringing the snow curse I've faced for the last 8 years with me. I just wanted to apoligize in advance! It is crazy to me how the GFS has slowly brought the mon/tues low farther and farther west/inland. The ridging over Nova Scotia is ticking stronger and stronger each run while the ULL is being pulled almost off the coast now on 12z. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 this is it 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Well at least this year no one has complained about sun angle because there has been no snow to melt…. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ji said: this is it What could go wrong?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 After a very low snowfall winter many are in a depressed state of mind and seemingly believing that we have reached an era of snow drought that we will probably have to learn to live with. That is nonsense that no reasonably intelligent person should believe. Average annual snowfall patterns rise and fall the same as temperature patterns rise and fall over decades or longer. They have been for hundreds of years. An unusual anomaly occasionally occurs with a very heavy snowfall winter as 95-96 or 09-10 but often a longer anomalous period occurs. In D.C., 2011 - 2019 was the lowest near decade of annual snowfall in 120 years at 12.9 inches. Boston had it's highest near decade during this same period with 54.9 inches. During the previous 10 years from 2001 - 2010, D.C. had it's snowiest decade since the 1960's at 16.8 inches annual average. D.C. had it's snowiest decade from 1961 - 1970 at 23.7 inches. At nearly the same latitude, Dodge City, Kansas had it's least snowy decade during the 1960's at 14.9". With a flipping Enso. condition next winter we have a reasonable shot at a flipping snowfall pattern. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 What could go wrong?!Suppression lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 29 minutes ago, Alfoman said: Hey ya'll! I truly think I only have myelf to blame for the misfortune of wave 1 and wave 2. I am currently moving up to DC from Atlanta and I will absolutely be bringing the snow curse I've faced for the last 8 years with me. I just wanted to apoligize in advance! It is crazy to me how the GFS has slowly brought the mon/tues low farther and farther west/inland. The ridging over Nova Scotia is ticking stronger and stronger each run while the ULL is being pulled almost off the coast now on 12z. Welcome to our world, by the way enjoy our metro traffic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 49 minutes ago, Ji said: this is not a high amplitude MJO Phase 8-1 look so im going to toss this as meteorologically impossible lol The only thing REALLY wrong with that is its too warm IF everything there was the same but the thermal boundary was where the purple line is instead of the red line...that would be fine. Trough axis in the pac is exactly where we want it, right where it is for all our big snowstorms...REMEMBER our big snow look is NOT the same as a big cold look...almost all our big snows come with a trough under Alaska. Ridge building out west in response to kick that trough east. Super 50/50 with blocking over the top. The problem is that ridge between goes nuts because its so warm...the boundary is just too far north despite a perfectly fine longwave pattern. Yes the NS wave is there over the top and that pumps that ridging a bit more because of the phase...but even with that there is there was a colder regime in the way it would be fine. Probably would be a messy storm with a primary to our west initially but we have snowed from that a LOT in the past...even in March. Some of our huge March storms had a primary way to our west initially. Especially during a -PDO regime. Again...its JUST TOO WARM. Nothing works, no longwave pattern, no setup, nothing....if its JUST TOO WARM. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 37 minutes ago, stormy said: After a very low snowfall winter many are in a depressed state of mind and seemingly believing that we have reached an era of snow drought that we will probably have to learn to live with. That is nonsense that no reasonably intelligent person should believe. Average annual snowfall patterns rise and fall the same as temperature patterns rise and fall over decades or longer. They have been for hundreds of years. An unusual anomaly occasionally occurs with a very heavy snowfall winter as 95-96 or 09-10 but often a longer anomalous period occurs. In D.C., 2011 - 2019 was the lowest near decade of annual snowfall in 120 years at 12.9 inches. Boston had it's highest near decade during this same period with 54.9 inches. During the previous 10 years from 2001 - 2010, D.C. had it's snowiest decade since the 1960's at 16.8 inches annual average. D.C. had it's snowiest decade from 1961 - 1970 at 23.7 inches. At nearly the same latitude, Dodge City, Kansas had it's least snowy decade during the 1960's at 14.9". With a flipping Enso. condition next winter we have a reasonable shot at a flipping snowfall pattern. We are in a cycle where both the atlantic and pacific are in a hostile decadal mode at the same time (AMO/PDO) which compounded by a bad enso period has caused what would have been a down period in any era. This would have been a bad 7 years whether it happened in the early 1900s or now. But we had similar bad cycles before and they weren't THIS bad...and there is a reason for that. There is a reason why the last 7 years is the LEAST snowy on record here and its not even close. It's not that we have never had a bad pattern stretch like this before. We have...but those bad cycles weren't as bad as this one because it was during a colder base state. The downward trend in snowfall in our area has been steady, consistent, and real for 100 years now and is unlikely (not impossible, I can't see the future) to reverse. If you look beyond the shorter term cyclical ups and downs, we have already lost about 30% of our snowfall compared to about 100 years ago. That is not a prediction, it is what has already happened. That is without factoring in the full affect of the last 7 years as I do think we are due for a reversal of fortunes, but if you do we have actually lost closer to 40% of our snowfall climo from 100 years ago. I do think a snowier period ahead at some point so perhaps it is still closer to the 30 number. But it is unlikely to be enough to reverse the longer term downward trend. The truth is Baltimore doesn't actually get 20" in a typical winter like it used to anymore and that is unlikely to be "typical" again in my lifetime. If you disagree that is fine, but I don't see where you are getting the evidence for that other than wishful thinking that a trend that has been consistent within the variables for 100 years is just suddenly going to flip. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The truth is Baltimore doesn't actually get 20" in a typical winter like it used to anymore and that is unlikely to be "typical" again in my lifetime We very well may only achieve 50 % of normal unless there is a massive shift. That looks unlikely. Only a major eruption could cool the Northern Hemisphere. My expectations moving forward are very low. Very sad time to be a snow lover. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 If only this thing was tucked about 100 miles further in and got going a bit earlier. Close but also so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 11 minutes ago, jayyy said: If only this thing was tucked about 100 miles further in and got going a bit earlier. Close but also so far. I blame Brooklynwx, the seasonal trends are too obvious to favor snow and a favorable boundary vs the opposite. But you’re right. And it’s crazy to think it would take a ton to make that so close you posted a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 13 minutes ago, frd said: We very well may only achieve 50 % of normal unless there is a massive shift. That looks unlikely. Only a major eruption could cool the Northern Hemisphere. My expectations moving forward are very low. Very sad time to be a snow lover. You’re even more pessimistic than me. We’ve averaged about 50% of historical climo the last 7 years. You assume this isn’t a down cycle but just the new normal? I think we get some better periods that averages it out closer to 60-70% of what climo used to be going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 10 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I blame Brooklynwx, the seasonal trends are too obvious to favor snow and a favorable boundary vs the opposite. But you’re right. And it’s crazy to think it would take a ton to make that so close you posted a hit. It’s a lot easier to be optimistic betting other people’s money. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Alfoman said: Hey ya'll! I truly think I only have myelf to blame for the misfortune of wave 1 and wave 2. I am currently moving up to DC from Atlanta and I will absolutely be bringing the snow curse I've faced for the last 8 years with me. I just wanted to apoligize in advance! It is crazy to me how the GFS has slowly brought the mon/tues low farther and farther west/inland. The ridging over Nova Scotia is ticking stronger and stronger each run while the ULL is being pulled almost off the coast now on 12z. You cant bring a snow drought to area that already has one. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 44 minutes ago, Interstate said: You cant bring a snow drought to area that already has one. Coals to Newcastle, as it were... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 GFS has an anafrontal wave similar to 12z but better, hard to buy it though… . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Nobody talking about the Day 8 6-8” means all hope must be lost 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Nobody talking about the Day 8 6-8” means all hope must be lost Literally was just going to post the exact same thing. 2 GFS runs in a row with St Paddy day weekend snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 WB 18Z GFS Day 8, Lucy is laughing hysterically. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Nobody talking about the Day 8 6-8” means all hope must be lost One more cycle and it will be a congrats Detroit . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Nobody talking about the Day 8 6-8” means all hope must be lost It’s alone in its evolution, and seems pretty suspect. Not impossible, but yea… what I’ve noticed this year is that the Op GFS sticks to a general LR pattern evolution for 2-4 runs before new data is infused. 12z run had a similar anafrontal system, 18z doubled down. We’ll probably see a much different evolution by 00z or 6z. If we want a miracle snow event out of that system though we need a GFS evolution where NS races out ahead of the southern energy. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 One more cycle and it will be a congrats Detroit .Yea, most likely considering other models look that way at the moment . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, Heisy said: It’s alone in its evolution, and seems pretty suspect. Not impossible, but yea… what I’ve noticed this year is that the Op GFS sticks to a general LR pattern evolution for 2-4 runs before new data is infused. 12z run had a similar anafrontal system, 18z doubled down. We’ll probably see a much different evolution by 00z or 6z. If we want a miracle snow event out of that system though we need a GFS evolution where NS races out ahead of the southern energy. . Thread the needle 8 days out. No way it's anywhere close to that look in 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS Day 8, Lucy is laughing hysterically. That map is literally giving us the finger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 GEFS does look a little better at H5, we want to see this trough trend as positively tilted as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 17 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS Day 8, Lucy is laughing hysterically. That would be wild for late March with the plummeting temperatures following! Nice to look at on paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Modest signal for a frontal wave on the mean, as there was at 12z. Handful of members look similar to the op(frozen), as there was at 12z. There is some support. eta- there are 8 members that have the same idea and frozen in our region. The majority are suggestive of a frontal wave. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 38 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS Day 8, Lucy is laughing hysterically. 30 minutes ago, osfan24 said: That map is literally giving us the finger. It’s making me think that someone or something wants me to go to Lancaster, PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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