psuhoffman Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'd argue that it's stastically very unlikely...Takes a lot to go less than an inch 2 years in a row. A cartopper even would be more than 0, lol I remember playing this game back in 2020. You were sure it HAD to get better. You cited statistics like this. Then you got like 7” the next year, 10” last year and nothing this year. So…3 years later I ask. Has it REALLY gotten better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 1 hour ago, fujiwara79 said: Yes, but past performance also doesn't predict future results. The probability of getting 0" next winter would be the same regardless of whether we had 0.4" or 50" this winter. Oh god this again. I wasted an hour of my life years ago proving that the results from one season had no statistically significant impact on the chances of snow the next winter. And it resulted in a bunch of “but that doesn’t feel right” replies. I gave up on that. Math is hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Oh god this again. I wasted an hour of my life years ago proving that the results from one season had no statistically significant impact on the chances of snow the next winter. And it resulted in a bunch of “but that doesn’t feel right” replies. I gave up on that. Math is hard. Yes it is - especially when you get into laplace transforms, hebert functions and higher level diffy Q. Wish I could forget those agonizing elements of higher education. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I remember playing this game back in 2020. You were sure it HAD to get better. You cited statistics like this. Then you got like 7” the next year, 10” last year and nothing this year. So…3 years later I ask. Has it REALLY gotten better? Man I was talking about the odds of having less than 0.2 inches of snow (thereby being numerically "worse") as being more unlikely. Not talking about our struggles overall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 18zGFS comes in.... *Ace Ventura summoning all the animals as the symphony grows toward a crescendo* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 7 hours ago, mattie g said: Trying to advance science is a waste of neither time nor resources. Lol, trying to forecast weather months in advance to serve no purpose other than to drive futures energy prices is a total waste of public money. But, I’ll play along. Tell me how the average tax paying citizen benefits in March to know what the weather might be in December. I’m willing to alter my position if a case can be made. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 Pretty incredible storm on the west coast! The thing's got a dang eye and everything, lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 California's been getting some Day After Tomorrow-like shit this year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 Think it’s time we unpin this. LFG spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 5 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Oh god this again. I wasted an hour of my life years ago proving that the results from one season had no statistically significant impact on the chances of snow the next winter. And it resulted in a bunch of “but that doesn’t feel right” replies. I gave up on that. Math is hard. Not for GPT4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 23 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: here's something for you guys to drool over for a bit. the CanSIPS is basically forecasting a high-end moderate Modoki that would have an insane February. ideal tropical forcing, neutral PDO, Pacific is mint, and there's a very active STJ along with blocking nice to see, at least "The storm is 10 months out" is the new "the storm is 10 days out" 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 12 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Lol, trying to forecast weather months in advance to serve no purpose other than to drive futures energy prices is a total waste of public money. But, I’ll play along. Tell me how the average tax paying citizen benefits in March to know what the weather might be in December. I’m willing to alter my position if a case can be made. The average tax-paying citizen may not directly benefit, but I think you're being naïve if you believe that oil futures (or other market-driven concerns) are the only thing driving the attempt at long-range forecasting. On-topic: How dem waves coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 1 hour ago, mattie g said: The average tax-paying citizen may not directly benefit, but I think you're being naïve if you believe that oil futures (or other market-driven concerns) are the only thing driving the attempt at long-range forecasting. On-topic: How dem waves coming? Not too good. I want some waves of warmth and sunshine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 FOLKS,,,,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 ^^^ We'll have wall to wall mesos and it will rain toads before that happens! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Can't wait to get fringed. It's not winter until models pull the rug out from under us inside 60 hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 33 minutes ago, Amped said: Can't wait to get fringed. It's not winter until models pull the rug out from under us inside 60 hrs Except we didn't get a single threat to make it to 60 hrs all winter, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 5 hours ago, paulythegun said: High tech graphics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Hello there, vort tracks perfectly for us. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Threading the needle, enjoy it for a few hours… eps was hinting at this sort of track at 18z fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 10:1 for the weenies because we deserve it lol. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 CMC/Icon flatten the wave out too much. GFS/euro camp have steadily been showing a stronger shortwave take shape as it heads east under the block. We’ll see what euro shows tonight, fun to imagine. There’s a non-0% shot at some flakes at least . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 WB OZ EPS: last track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB OZ EPS: last track? The probability maps have looked just like that all winter. Now it's Spring. Why bother lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: The probability maps have looked just like that all winter. Now it's Spring. Why bother lol. I know….up to go to work anyway. 1.5 hour trip on the train, might as well look at models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I know….up to go to work anyway. 1.5 hour trip on the train, might as well look at models. I deactivated my WB account a week ago. I'll reactivate it for Dec to track our initial snow threats with a CP based Nino established. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 5 hours ago, Heisy said: CMC/Icon flatten the wave out too much. GFS/euro camp have steadily been showing a stronger shortwave take shape as it heads east under the block. We’ll see what euro shows tonight, fun to imagine. There’s a non-0% shot at some flakes at least . Gfs just came in flatter and weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 They must have really tweaked the IC on this EPS ensemble member. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 I knew it was Bs last night, but it’s really annoying we couldn’t catch one break all year…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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