3/10 and beyond... all the waves threats

[jayyy]

This recent storm had a 43” report in Beacon, NY, that was surrounded by a bunch of like 8-14” reports lol

Beacon is just east of the Hudson River, has little elevation, and deals with shadowing. Zero shot they got 43”

Now, it is true though that snow totals varied greatly in relatively small areas in NY and western MA with this last storm. I drove home through that area the day after and it was pretty incredible to see how much snow was OTG in certain areas versus others. Where I stayed saw 22” of snow, all of which fell at 32-33 degrees. Shadowing in areas close to the Berkshires, Catskills, Adirondacks, etc is very real and can lead to the valleys getting much lower amounts than elevated areas. Especially because temps were so marginal… but seeing a 43” report in a place like beacon is laughable. I grew up in that area and know it well and definitely can smell bullshit on that report. But I bet elevated areas nearby did see close to 18”. The reporting was all over the place. Massachusetts saw similar discrepancies. Totals ranged from 3-4” to 40”. Some of that is legit due to elevation and being colder with better lift, but there are definitely some very suspect lowland reports mixed in there.

[psuhoffman]

48 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not sure what 08/09, 11/12, 19/20 were but those were the really bad 3 here in the past 15.

Truthfully 2016 was awful here outside of three days.

20 was enso neutral.  09 and 12 were la nina's.  Your area really got hosed in both.  09 had some cold periods in January and late feb early march...but your area missed all the snows.  There were a couple of minor events in Jan that skipped over your area and the big coastal that gave the DC area 6-12" totally missed you.  I got about 6" here from that and I was on the NW fringe of the snow.  2012 also probably hosed you because almost all my snow came from a couple of clipper type storms that probably jumped over you...often those don't do much in the shenandoah valley if they are on a NW to SE trajectory because of the downslope.  And there was a big snowstorm in late October I got 8" from here that missed your area.  

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Beacon is just east of the Hudson River, has little elevation, and deals with shadowing. Zero shot they got 43”

Now, it is true though that snow totals varied greatly in relatively small areas in NY and western MA with this last storm. I drove home through that area the day after and it was pretty incredible to see how much snow was OTG in certain areas versus others. Where I stayed saw 22” of snow, all of which fell at 32-33 degrees. Shadowing in areas close to the Berkshires, Catskills, Adirondacks, etc is very real and can lead to the valleys getting much lower amounts than elevated areas. Especially because temps were so marginal… but seeing a 43” report in a place like beacon is laughable. I grew up in that area and know it well and definitely can smell bullshit on that report. But I bet elevated areas nearby did see close to 18”. The reporting was all over the place. Massachusetts saw similar discrepancies. Totals ranged from 3-4” to 40”. Some of that is legit due to elevation and being colder with better lift, but there are definitely some very suspect lowland reports mixed in there.

I saw a thread on Twitter with some more thorough analysis and they say that the NY state minimum of 0.1” in Saugerties was only like 3 mi away from the (legit) state maximum of like 33” on top of a nearby hill. Wild stuff.

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Beacon is just east of the Hudson River, has little elevation, and deals with shadowing. Zero shot they got 43”

Now, it is true though that snow totals varied greatly in relatively small areas in NY and western MA with this last storm. I drove home through that area the day after and it was pretty incredible to see how much snow was OTG in certain areas versus others. Where I stayed saw 22” of snow, all of which fell at 32-33 degrees. Shadowing in areas close to the Berkshires, Catskills, Adirondacks, etc is very real and can lead to the valleys getting much lower amounts than elevated areas. Especially because temps were so marginal… but seeing a 43” report in a place like beacon is laughable. I grew up in that area and know it well and definitely can smell bullshit on that report. But I bet elevated areas nearby did see close to 18”. The reporting was all over the place. Massachusetts saw similar discrepancies. Totals ranged from 3-4” to 40”. Some of that is legit due to elevation and being colder with better lift, but there are definitely some very suspect lowland reports mixed in there.

Is it possible the location is just off...and that is the closest town of note to the actual report?  

[mattie g]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I saw a thread on Twitter with some more thorough analysis and they say that the NY state minimum of 0.1” in Saugerties was only like 3 mi away from the (legit) state maximum of like 33” on top of a nearby hill. Wild stuff.

Looks like there's a 3000' ridge that pops up just west of town, which is like 200'. That'll make a massive difference in a late-season event!

[Scraff]

I’m not sure what the current talk is currently, but I know I’m getting a pretty damn good sunburn with the sunroof open today. Fuck snow! I’m out. It’s margarita season at this point.

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

20 was enso neutral.  09 and 12 were la nina's.  Your area really got hosed in both.  09 had some cold periods in January and late feb early march...but your area missed all the snows.  There were a couple of minor events in Jan that skipped over your area and the big coastal that gave the DC area 6-12" totally missed you.  I got about 6" here from that and I was on the NW fringe of the snow.  2012 also probably hosed you because almost all my snow came from a couple of clipper type storms that probably jumped over you...often those don't do much in the shenandoah valley if they are on a NW to SE trajectory because of the downslope.  And there was a big snowstorm in late October I got 8" from here that missed your area.  

I had 6” in that October storm in 2011 but almost nothing the rest of the year

[87storms]

I’m not sure what the current talk is currently, but I know I’m getting a pretty damn good sunburn with the sunroof open today. Fuck snow! I’m out. It’s margarita season at this point.

Yea, I’m officially retired from tracking snow for the season. It’s a wrap. We’re at the point where a cold front drops it down to 40 lol. If it snows, cool, but it’s probably time to move on…at least east of the mountains.

If we’re gonna have a dud of a snow season, at least it was during an ENSO phase where it’s somewhat expected.

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, 87storms said:

Yea, I’m officially retired from tracking snow for the season. It’s a wrap. We’re at the point where a cold front drops it down to 40 lol. If it snows, cool, but it’s probably time to move on…at least east of the mountains.

If we’re gonna have a dud of a snow season, at least it was during an ENSO phase where it’s somewhat expected.

This wasnt a dud. This was a historic failure. Even by our standards of failure there is nothing close to this winter season. The icing on the cake is we will most likely be cold for the next 5 weeks. You really cant write a worse book. 

[Ji]

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

2014. Damn.  I got excited about a 9 year old NAM plot.  Bring on spring and end this nightmare 

[clskinsfan]

[CAPE]

We need our very own ENSO thread to track all that truly matters, until ultimate failure this time next year(following a long period of high expectations).

A subtitle something like 'the new hope', or 'we are still so royally fucked' would be cool.

 

[Chris78]

43 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This wasnt a dud. This was a historic failure. Even by our standards of failure there is nothing close to this winter season. The icing on the cake is we will most likely be cold for the next 5 weeks. You really cant write a worse book. 

Horrific winter. The worst by far in the 22 years I've lived in Smithsburg. 

And the above normal temps in January and February was lolz.

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

We need our very own ENSO thread to track all that truly matters, until ultimate failure this time next year(following a long period of high expectations).

A subtitle something like 'the new hope', or 'we are still so royally fucked' would be cool.

 

After the past 6 years. I will not EVER think about being excited about a Nina. Will not happen. The general theme is Nina? Yeah. Winter is over. 

[CAPE]

50 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

After the past 6 years. I will not EVER think about being excited about a Nina. Will not happen. The general theme is Nina? Yeah. Winter is over. 

A bit more variable here. Last year was incredible compared to this lol. Jan 17 and 18 were also pretty darn good- more so to my east. Beginning to think I need to root for cross polar flow/Arctic cold w/progressive pattern, as long as the western Atlantic is on fire at least. Seems to produce the most snow here in recent winters, but sucks pretty bad for inland areas.

[BristowWx]

17 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Horrific winter. The worst by far in the 22 years I've lived in Smithsburg. 

And the above normal temps in January and February was lolz.

At least next winter won’t be this winter. A whole new set of failure scenarios await.  Onward and upward!  

[snownut]

19 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

After the past 6 years. I will not EVER think about being excited about a Nina. Will not happen. The general theme is Nina? Yeah. Winter is over. 

Its been painful to watch and scan the MA forum.   I have blink cameras on our home in Aldie VA and was expecting to watch the snow come and go this season.  "blink" camera is appropriate because there was a blink dusting one time this entire season! 

I have my Old Davis VP 2 station set up there and the rain gauge tripper cracked.  I ordered a new one but is arrived after I left last November so don't even have a record of how much rain there was this "winter" season.   

As mentioned we will likely move back there in retirement years. By then I'll be to old for cold and winter?? 

So if this is a newish normal? Then Virginia will be a "snowbird" destination for Canadians in the winter!

[clskinsfan]

23 minutes ago, snownut said:

As mentioned we will likely move back there in retirement years. By then I'll be to old for cold and winter?? 

Well basically you wont have to worry about winter except once a decade. So yeah. Generally the Mid Atlantic might be the best retirement spot. After retirement you should expect to see 2 or 3 snowstorms before you die. 

[clskinsfan]

48 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A bit more variable here. Last year was incredible compared to this lol. Jan 17 and 18 were also pretty darn good- more so to my east. Beginning to think I need to root for cross polar flow/Arctic cold w/progressive pattern, as long as the western Atlantic on fire at least. Seems to produce the most snow here in recent winters, but sucks pretty bad for inland areas.

You guys to the east can get saved with northern stream vorts. Pick up the junk before they bomb out and hammer New England. We get jumped out here. 

[87storms]

2 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

This wasnt a dud. This was a historic failure. Even by our standards of failure there is nothing close to this winter season. The icing on the cake is we will most likely be cold for the next 5 weeks. You really cant write a worse book. 

I think 19/20 was abysmal, too...I just didn't care as much at the time.  This was definitely worse across the board for the region, though.  Didn't even get a decent minor event.

[North Balti Zen]

I've updated the futility thread so you can see just where we stand on how awful this has been compared to other top 5 worst years. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Hallelujah 

[Terpeast]

This winter was the worst I’ve ever seen in my life, it just refused to snow as if a cruel joke was being played on us. 

But I am pretty confident that we won’t get back to back shutouts. It can’t get any worse than this. And it almost certainly won’t be this bad next winter. 

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

This winter was the worst I’ve ever seen in my life, it just refused to snow as if a cruel joke was being played on us. 

But I am pretty confident that we won’t get back to back shutouts. It can’t get any worse than this. And it almost certainly won’t be this bad next winter. 

You say this now, but it can always be worse. We can go 32 and rain all next winter.

[Maestrobjwa]

17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You say this now, but it can always be worse. We can go 32 and rain all next winter.

The only thing worse is 0.0 inches, man. So being worse than this year is statistically unlikely!

[Ruin]

16 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

You have nothing positive to add in our own thread, for christ's sake will you please stop trolling and keep your shit posts up in PA where they don't belong either? 

 

Sorry southern friends...

im being realistic no one else wants to say it like I said before I want snow but latching onto models 10 days out showing a snow storm over and over only for that model to trend more and more away from a storm.  Then latch onto the next one showing another storm is kind of crazy dont get me wrong I like the chase as the next person but some years it isnt meant to be  

[jayyy]

I feel like January February and march are all going to end with a very similar average temp. Odd

[nj2va]

 

Where do I sign?

[Wonderdog]

10 hours ago, BristowWx said:

At least next winter won’t be this winter. A whole new set of failure scenarios await.  Onward and upward!  

I like your optimism brother.