brooklynwx99 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Work for who? It has actually been 5 anomalous -NAOs without producing much if any snow here since we had the last affective one in 2018. I wrote about it back after the December fail that one of the reasons for our snow drought over the last 7 years is that blocking is not working at the same rate it used to. It's still too small a sample though to say its more than just a random thing. But combined with some other unsettling trends its worrying. the retrograding block in Feb 2021 produced a historic blizzard for NYC and surrounding areas. was just a bit too far north for most of you guys, but N MD still got significant snow I'm very curious to see what a legit Nino will do. seems like the potential for a moderate Nino is increasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the retrograding block in Feb 2021 produced a historic blizzard for NYC and surrounding areas. was just a bit too far north for most of you guys, but N MD still got significant snow I'm very curious to see what a legit Nino will do. seems like the potential for a moderate Nino is increasing I hate that storm. It was such a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 I work nights, saw the 6z eps before I fell asleep and knew something was terribly wrong. This winter man lol…. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the retrograding block in Feb 2021 produced a historic blizzard for NYC and surrounding areas. was just a bit too far north for most of you guys, but N MD still got significant snow I'm very curious to see what a legit Nino will do. seems like the potential for a moderate Nino is increasing That was a great storm for the ski areas in WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the retrograding block in Feb 2021 produced a historic blizzard for NYC and surrounding areas. was just a bit too far north for most of you guys, but N MD still got significant snow I'm very curious to see what a legit Nino will do. seems like the potential for a moderate Nino is increasing I said for us. 2021 ended up much below normal snow in DC and Balt despite extreme blocking for about 6 weeks in prime climo. That is definitely not producing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Work for who? It has actually been 5 anomalous -NAOs without producing much if any snow here since we had the last affective one in 2018. I wrote about it back after the December fail that one of the reasons for our snow drought over the last 7 years is that blocking is not working at the same rate it used to. It's still too small a sample though to say its more than just a random thing. But combined with some other unsettling trends its worrying. I concur on this. something definitely amiss anymore. Original thinking was missing 50-50 along with deep western Trough. However, seems to be more to it than that. Possibly a combination of said factor's along with the Atlantic SST State. Deepness of western Trough this season I'm sure played a part. The current MJO Phase I think may play a part suppressing the System next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 I’ll be doing my end of season analysis soon but the main take away is I am way too optimistic. I predicted below normal snow and we got none. I got excited exactly one time for the possibility of a snowstorm and we got no storms. So I was 100% too optimistic and hopeful. In short I was a huge weenie. In the coming years I will do my best to be more pessimistic so that I can offer you all the realistic accurate analysis you deserve. 2 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 I think they're going to have to write a new volume for the KU book series. We should call it: Northeast Perfect Track Rainstorms: Volume III. Case studies and Chronicles of the New Base State. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I said for us. 2021 ended up much below normal snow in DC and Balt despite extreme blocking for about 6 weeks in prime climo. That is definitely not producing. I received a few inches above climo that winter, so the blocking helped at least some of us in this sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Whatever. 18Z GFS lines us western folks up for a small front end thump the last week of March to end this disaster of a winter. I am sitting here looking at Doug Kammerer doing his forecast and wanting to cuss him out in all honesty. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 1 hour ago, WesternFringe said: I received a few inches above climo that winter, so the blocking helped at least some of us in this sub. The boundary layer is warming fastest. Those of us with elevation are suffering less. The UHI obviously is suffering the most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 59 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Whatever. 18Z GFS lines us western folks up for a small front end thump the last week of March to end this disaster of a winter. I am sitting here looking at Doug Kammerer doing his forecast and wanting to cuss him out in all honesty. Doug K. Was actually to aggressive with his snow forecast. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The boundary layer is warming fastest. Those of us with elevation are suffering less. The UHI obviously is suffering the most. You and I were both wrong about the winter. Now, your wrong again about elevation. Canaan Heights, W.Va. at 3715 ft. elevation, with an average annual 160 inches of snow had the lowest snowfall this winter in the last 20 years with only 61 inches. Yes, I know that 38% would give D.C. 5 inches of snow but it is safe to say that Canaan Heights also suffered a snow drought this winter. Please don't be more pessimistic next winter. That would be a huge negative for so many, including yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 I find it interesting that it's basically the entire eastern half of the country struggling the past several winters, not just our area. In fact, Maryland is 9th on the list of states with negative departure from average snowfall the past 4 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 1 hour ago, stormy said: You and I were both wrong about the winter. Now, your wrong again about elevation. Canaan Heights, W.Va. at 3715 ft. elevation, with an average annual 160 inches of snow had the lowest snowfall this winter in the last 20 years with only 61 inches. Yes, I know that 38% would give D.C. 5 inches of snow but it is safe to say that Canaan Heights also suffered a snow drought this winter. Please don't be more pessimistic next winter. That would be a huge negative for so many, including yourself. Maybe someday you’ll make a post worth reading. Unfortunately I don’t have the patience so I’ll never see it since you’ll be on my ignore list. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 why are east-based ninos bad? like what exactly does it do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: why are east-based ninos bad? like what exactly does it do Pac low centers too far east flooding N America with warmth 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 2 hours ago, Steve25 said: I find it interesting that it's basically the entire eastern half of the country struggling the past several winters, not just our area. In fact, Maryland is 9th on the list of states with negative departure from average snowfall the past 4 winters. Keep in mind that’s not a departure from normal as a %. Places like DC can’t have large numerical deficits because they only avg 14” a year compared to somewhere like Deep Creek that averages over 100”. So even if they are less below avg in terms of % they can have a larger numerical deficit over time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 00z icon tried it… but too progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 GEPS looks like it was *trying* to get something going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 Except 2-3 days later, the energy off the west coast comes onshore and deepens into yet another trough, with heights pumping out east. Eek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 on to next winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 14 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I said for us. 2021 ended up much below normal snow in DC and Balt despite extreme blocking for about 6 weeks in prime climo. That is definitely not producing. It wasn’t much below for many of us though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 44 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It wasn’t much below for many of us though. I think I had 12" here for 2020-21. Not too far from median. Some of it was sleet during the Feb period. Had some ice too. The winter before was a disaster. An inch or so total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 16 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: the wave amplifying in the Pacific crushed the ridge in the SW US. what a surprise This is the consistent mistake the models have made all year. It has one solution in the day 8-10 range that quickly reverses around day 7-6. A consistent error could be programmed out I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It wasn’t much below for many of us though. 2021 was an Above normal snow season just a little bit to your north in Harrisburg, PA. We got around 36 & our average is near 30. I’m not trying to start anything by posting about southern PA in here, but I’m just pointing out that a decent Winter in 2021 was just barely to your north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 15 hours ago, fujiwara79 said: I think they're going to have to write a new volume for the KU book series. We should call it: Northeast Perfect Track Rainstorms: Volume III. Case studies and Chronicles of the New Base State. We'll refer to those as "FU" storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It wasn’t much below for many of us though. I had 19.25" for 20-21. Not bad. Interesting variables between D.C. and the Valley. D.C. / Baltimore have often received much more summer rain in recent years than the Valley, yet much less snow in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 10 hours ago, Steve25 said: I find it interesting that it's basically the entire eastern half of the country struggling the past several winters, not just our area. In fact, Maryland is 9th on the list of states with negative departure from average snowfall the past 4 winters. This perfectly illustrates the huge departure from normal in the mountains of W.Va. Percentages would have been more user friendly but this gets the job done. Thanks for posting this! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Ruin said: on to next winter You have nothing positive to add in our own thread, for christ's sake will you please stop trolling and keep your shit posts up in PA where they don't belong either? Sorry southern friends... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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