Amped Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 1 hour ago, Heisy said: . If that setup can't get us an inch of snow this is officially the worst winter on record. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 1 hour ago, RedSky said: It's hail Mary toss time As long as Jalen Hurts isn't throwing it maybe there's at least a small chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Gefs better 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Just now, psuhoffman said: Gefs better i like the ideally placed, strong HP. climo is obviously the issue here 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i like the ideally placed, strong HP. climo is obviously the issue here Yea. That looks damn near perfect. Too bad it's March 22nd not February 22nd. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 This would technically be the storm after the storm after the storm after the storm so it checks out in the weenie handbook. Lock it up! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 I came on here expecting some Euro info, but forgot that DST pushes everything later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Euro is just over amplified. Typical bias at this range 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Euro is just over amplified. Typical bias at this range Agreed, doesn’t get confluence out ahead as well as GFS either, there’s a late diving N/S shortwave that is key in this, need that to trend faster. setup still there well see . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 So split the euro/gfs = snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Ask NY and BOS what could possibly go wrong, but it is nice to have something to track before we start looking for severe weather and tropical systems. It will be interesting to see if EPS improved like GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 I feel like those still rooting for snow at this point have, you know...a thing...for pain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Not terrible for this range after OP run. . 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 18 minutes ago, Heisy said: Not terrible for this range after OP run. . Huge improvement 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Huge improvement Mind posting the previous? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Things have to trend good now. If it falls apart this far out it won’t hurt enough. It has to get better and better until we actually believe, truly allow ourselves to think this is the one, it’s really finally happening, then and only then can it be the total soul crushing knock us to our knees and make us sob uncontrollably like March 2001 and December 2010 were a fun day at the park experience that is the only fitting way this can end. 1 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Huge improvement There’s actually two periods to watch in the LR, and I’ll stress that it likely favors interior with all of them. We’re gonna need a little luck in coastal plain, but not impossible. This first event we’re tracking now and then possibly a front ender type if that event forms into 50/50. The pattern is gonna kill a lot of people because It’s happening when it is. Check out this pattern at end of GFS lol, pain. . 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Things have to trend good now. If it falls apart this far out it won’t hurt enough. It has to get better and better until we actually believe, truly allow ourselves to think this is the one, it’s really finally happening, then and only then can it be the total soul crushing knock us to our knees and make us sob uncontrollably like March 2001 and December 2010 were a fun day at the park experience that is the only fitting way this can end. Yeah I mean I don't know if any March has ever salvaged a winter of futility. After skimming through the snow records...I guess March 1942 comes the closest, lol BWI had 4.2 inches (hey look! 4x what we have now! )before that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Euro is just over amplified. Typical bias at this range Shouldnt we expect a more amped storm towards the end of March though? Bottom line for me is there is a storm on all of the models in that timeframe. I would probably favor a more amped up storm over a southern slider at this time of year. Although this winter has done nothing but disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Shouldnt we expect a more amped storm towards the end of March though? Bottom line for me is there is a storm on all of the models in that timeframe. I would probably favor a more amped up storm over a southern slider at this time of year. Although this winter has done nothing but disappoint. The euro has been too amplified with most everything. It’s hard to quantify the March effect since we don’t necessarily know what the same wave looks like earlier. It’s already baked unto the models. The Gfs is under done. The euro over. That’s the most typical error at this range. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 The euro has been too amplified with most everything. It’s hard to quantify the March effect since we don’t necessarily know what the same wave looks like earlier. It’s already baked unto the models. The Gfs is under done. The euro over. That’s the most typical error at this range. This is one of the waves that we need to keep an eye on. Euro phases this piece in, this helps build ridging ahead. GFS kind of pushes it farther SE. CMC is kind of in between. hopefully this piece speeds up on future guidance. Rather it get out ahead or roll across N of lakes in future runsI’m really all in on this pattern, just shame it’s happening when it is . 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: Ask NY and BOS what could possibly go wrong, but it is nice to have something to track before we start looking for severe weather and tropical systems. It will be interesting to see if EPS improved like GEFS. It’s 8 days away. Plenty can go wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s 8 days away. Plenty can go wrong Yah, look at the 18Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 18z GEFS slightlyImproved around day 6 with confluence pattern. All that matters is around day 5-6. We need euro to be on board around then. Till then as long as the other models in the same ball park im fine. UKIE at 168 today was primed for a big event. . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 GFS 100 miles south of the benchmark. Plenty of time to adjust. I had feared south and east suppression, it verifies. Some had feared a runner which is 60 days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Baby steps . 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 WB 18Z GEFS. I guess having a couple big hits to our south is good at this range, but we have a ways to go… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Lot of complete misses/ no storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Probability of precipitation has trended up slightly since yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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