3/10 and beyond... all the waves threats

[stormtracker]

Just now, CAPE said:

So many potential failures, er waves. Hard to keep track.

Yeah, totally different H5 look on the 12z vs 6z GFS.  Seems like the low we want to get out of the way is further south...and so is our wave

[Heisy]

So many potential failures, er waves. Hard to keep track.

Gfs digging more like last nights cmc…curious how this plays out. Not worth getting too invested this far out randy



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[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Gfs digging more like last nights cmc…curious how this plays out. Not worth getting too invested this far out randy



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Shredderola

[Heisy]

Gfs digging more like last nights cmc…curious how this plays out. Not worth getting too invested this far out randy



.

Meh, just terrible spacing with that pac energy just racing east, no room for any amplification at all. If that pac energy becomes the “wave” that forms a storm probably assume are cold air source in NE is gone by then


.

[CAPE]

Waves 5 and 6 are the ones to watch.

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Waves 5 and 6 are the ones to watch.

[CAPE]

See what this does. WOW a HP nosing down. lol.

[CAPE]

wave 6?

[North Balti Zen]

Any of these waves spring or nah? This really sucks. Gray windy and cold in late March is kinda shit.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

wave 6?

We cannot under any setup get the 540 line south of us…f*** the 546….it sucks ass

[CAPE]

Back outside to do Spring things.

[Terpeast]

Outside of a fluke 1% chance, it’s over. 

I’ll do a post-mortem writeup in my winter outlook thread soon. 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Outside of a fluke 1% chance, it’s over. 

I’ll do a post-morten writeup in my winter outlook thread soon. 

What a fucked up winter.  Thankfully it's over and we can put it behind us

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What a fucked up winter.  Thankfully it's over and we can put it behind us

Yep, onto severe wx tracking. 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yep, onto severe wx tracking. 

Another futile endeavor. 

[frd]

47 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Back outside to do Spring things.

Looking forward to the beach, seafood and beer. And yes, gardening.   

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Another futile endeavor. 

I hope it’s nothing like last year when storms just up and vanish right on our doorsteps 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

Meh, just terrible spacing with that pac energy just racing east, no room for any amplification at all. If that pac energy becomes the “wave” that forms a storm probably assume are cold air source in NE is gone by then
 

It’s not bad spacing or bad luck imo. It’s the same problem we’ve had. The wave spacing isn’t working because it’s too warm. So we need some crazy perfect unlikely spacing between waves where they are exactly close enough such that the northerly flow behind one can suppress the southerly flow ahead of Ty next but without crushing it. Ya ok. That’s just not likely.  Waves being a few days apart isn’t the problem.  It’s that the airmass is so blah even north of the boundary where there is southerly flow that as soon as any wave ejects from the west with any amplitude the southerly flow can blast a ridge to kingdom come ahead of it regardless of the longwave pattern.  The storm is then going to track along that boundary that it was able to push way further north than the longwave pattern would historically suggest it should be.  It’s a nasty feedback loop. 
 

The airmass is so marginal north of the thermal gradient I’m not even sure it would matter if one of these did track south of us unless it bombed us with like 1” qpf in 6 hours. Take last night. Places in NE PA like Hazleton at 1600 feet got 2-3” of snow from .45 qpf. Even at 1600 feet it was barely snow with a closed h5 tracking under them!  And places in the valleys like Drums at 900 feet got a slushy coating. So if at 900 feet way to our north the airmass was barely cold enough to produce any snow even with w perfect track for them…what was the likely outcome in DC area even had that tracked 200 miles south?  
 

It’s just too warm. 

[psuhoffman]

@Heisy another example. It’s going to be in the  40s tomorrow in Vermont with dews near 30 even with partial cloud cover, snowpack and the fact they are way north of the mid latitude thermal boundary and still in the northerly flow behind last nights wave.  I ski up there in March a lot.  It’s going to be a warm day for them despite being north of the storm track in a northerly flow. 
 

I’ve been up there a day or two before we get a late season snow and it was frigid cold. I remember being up there in mid March in 2013/14/15 and all 3 years some part of our area for snow in mid March and I remember how damn cold it was in Vermont. One of those years it was single digits!  Yea in mid March.  It was like 15 in early April in 2003 a day before that late snow that hit PA and NYC. For us to get snow we need Vermont to be like 15 not 45!  

[Maestrobjwa]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s not bad spacing or bad luck imo. It’s the same problem we’ve had. The wave spacing isn’t working because it’s too warm. So we need some crazy perfect unlikely spacing between waves where they are exactly close enough such that the northerly flow behind one can suppress the southerly flow ahead of Ty next but without crushing it. Ya ok. That’s just not likely.  Waves being a few days apart isn’t the problem.  It’s that the airmass is so blah even north of the boundary where there is southerly flow that as soon as any wave ejects from the west with any amplitude the southerly flow can blast a ridge to kingdom come ahead of it regardless of the longwave pattern.  The storm is then going to track along that boundary that it was able to push way further north than the longwave pattern would historically suggest it should be.  It’s a nasty feedback loop. 
 

The airmass is so marginal north of the thermal gradient I’m not even sure it would matter if one of these did track south of us unless it bombed us with like 1” qpf in 6 hours. Take last night. Places in NE PA like Hazleton at 1600 feet got 2-3” of snow from .45 qpf. Even at 1600 feet it was barely snow with a closed h5 tracking under them!  And places in the valleys like Drums at 900 feet got a slushy coating. So if at 900 feet way to our north the airmass was barely cold enough to produce any snow even with w perfect track for them…what was the likely outcome in DC area even had that tracked 200 miles south?  
 

It’s just too warm. 

I know you said your opinions aren't predictive...but when you say that like that...it kinda feels like a "this might be a permanent problem for the future". Now maybe it is; in that case may as well come right out and say it, lolol

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Heisy another example. It’s going to be in the  40s tomorrow in Vermont with dews near 30 even with partial cloud cover and the fact they are way north of the mid latitude thermal boundary and still in the northerly flow behind last nights wave.  I ski up there in March a lot.  It’s going to be a warm day for them despite being north of the storm track in a northerly flow. 
 

I’ve been up there a day or two before we get a late season snow and it was frigid cold. I remember being up there in mid March in 2013/14/15 and all 3 years some part of our area for snow in mid March and I remember how damn cold it was in Vermont. One of those years it was single digits!  Yea in mid March.  It was like 15 in early April in 2003 a day before that late snow that hit PA and NYC. For us to get snow we need Vermont to be like 15 not 45!  

That there tells me this season is more of an anomaly...Even if the you know what is getting incrementally warmer, ain't no way the climo just dropped off a cliff THAT fast--that Vermont would be 45 and above average right now.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Heisy another example. It’s going to be in the  40s tomorrow in Vermont with dews near 30 even with partial cloud cover, snowpack and the fact they are way north of the mid latitude thermal boundary and still in the northerly flow behind last nights wave.  I ski up there in March a lot.  It’s going to be a warm day for them despite being north of the storm track in a northerly flow. 
 

I’ve been up there a day or two before we get a late season snow and it was frigid cold. I remember being up there in mid March in 2013/14/15 and all 3 years some part of our area for snow in mid March and I remember how damn cold it was in Vermont. One of those years it was single digits!  Yea in mid March.  It was like 15 in early April in 2003 a day before that late snow that hit PA and NYC. For us to get snow we need Vermont to be like 15 not 45!  

If I remember correctly, siberia had record cold through most of the winter. Cold air is a finite source, especially now, and it seems most of it just went to the other side. And maybe a smaller lobe or two dumped into the west. Could be just one of those years. 

Maybe next time we get the cold air dumped on our side. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I know you said your opinions aren't predictive...but when you say that like that...it kinda feels like a "this might be a permanent problem for the future". Now maybe it is; in that case may as well come right out and say it, lolol

Why you trying to get me in trouble 

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If I remember correctly, siberia had record cold through most of the winter. Cold air is a finite source, especially now, and it seems most of it just went to the other side. And maybe a smaller lobe or two dumped into the west. Could be just one of those years. 

Maybe next time we get the cold air dumped on our side. 

I remember reading that some areas in Siberia were the coldest since 2002. Maybe next year we'll get our 2003?

In any case I'll remain hesitant about an El Nino being the remedy we need. The 06-07 and 94-95 style Ninos still lurk, but it's definitely a step up for our chances. 

[Kmlwx]

52 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yep, onto severe wx tracking. 

Hoping for some ring of fire action - I saw a few intriguing CFS monthly runs the past few weeks...but many seem to center the ridge too far west for excitement. If we can avoid triple-H weather for long periods I'll be happy. 

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

What a fucked up winter.  Thankfully it's over and we can put it behind us

Problem is it is still going to be pretty cold through the entire month. The whole situation sucks. 

[wasnow215]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Waves 5 and 6 are the ones to watch.

Wave 9 right around Easter. Or maybe MAY DAY! Haha

[wasnow215]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

What a fucked up winter.  Thankfully it's over and we can put it behind us

Since our region was probably the worst in the country that would normally get snow for snow this season, does that mean we get a number one draft pick for next year? Lol

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Since our region was probably the worst in the country that would normally get snow for snow this season, does that mean we get a number one draft pick for next year? Lol

Haha Love this analogy! It's like we purposely tanked all year in order to get it too, lol

[jayyy]

On the bright side, UKMET says sorry to NYC and Boston as well. Rough 36 hours for the NYC metro sheesh. Places just inland around 287 went from 40” to 2” within a day and a half on this model.