Heisy Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 @CAPE @psuhoffman This is OP GFS and GEFS for same time period in the LR… losing climo though….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Heisy said: GFS has an anafrontal wave similar to 12z but better, hard to buy it though… . It was a perfect 18z run. Does exactly what we need wave 3. Gets the NS wave out in front just enough. Then it has wave 4 but just a bit suppressed. Perfect for that range. Lol Both those waves will adjust around every run but 18z Gfs showed how we could conceivably win with either. This is the first time all winter we actually had a good setup. Ya it’s sucks it comes 3 weeks into March 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Wave 4 looks very interesting as well, but obviously way out there in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 15 minutes ago, Heisy said: @CAPE @psuhoffman This is OP GFS and GEFS for same time period in the LR… losing climo though…. . This has looked like the best period, with significant southern energy that isn't way late developing, and without NS dominance. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 25 minutes ago, CAPE said: This has looked like the best period, with significant southern energy that isn't way late developing, and without NS dominance. In the last words of Beethoven: "Pity, pity...too late!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 I came across this link today: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/18-climate-change/ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: This has looked like the best period, with significant southern energy that isn't way late developing, and without NS dominance. This is following a typical timeline progression for a blocking regime. Unfortunately we are running out of time. Weeks ago when it was becoming clear the SSW was propagating and coupling someone asked how I thought the timeline would play out. I pegged March 15-20 as when the improving climo intersects the degrading climo to produce the best threat but that the pattern itself would likely get even better after that. It’s playing out exactly that way. The best threat might come after March 20th anyways but climo is gonna be a real issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 The granddaddy of March winter storms in Baltimore came at the end of March 1942, known as the Palm Sunday storm. An innocuous weather forecast called for flurries in western areas, but what started as rain ended up as snow from 2 a.m. that Sunday through 9 p.m. that evening, dumping 22 inches. Cars were abandoned and streetcars and trolleys halted. One local weatherman, John R. Weeks, called the storm a "freak". Spring robins were said to be "bewildered", "bedraggled" and "forlornly" searching for food. (Source: Baltimore Sun). (11.5 inches National Airport (WP). A mammoth snowstorm that struck the region over a century ago still holds the record for the highest March snowfall tally in D.C. That storm produced a foot of snow in the city March 27 to 28, 1891. (WP). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 6 hours ago, Solution Man said: Welcome to our world, by the way enjoy our metro traffic there are prob 3 cities in the country that see our traffic and are like, yeah that's ok. ATL is one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 For what it's worth, CPC shows March Phase 8 tends to be drier than phase 1. Unfortunately, phase 2 is when we get the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 This is following a typical timeline progression for a blocking regime. Unfortunately we are running out of time. Weeks ago when it was becoming clear the SSW was propagating and coupling someone asked how I thought the timeline would play out. I pegged March 15-20 as when the improving climo intersects the degrading climo to produce the best threat but that the pattern itself would likely get even better after that. It’s playing out exactly that way. The best threat might come after March 20th anyways but climo is gonna be a real issue. Our latitude will probably get 2 shots at something relatively significant. Waves 3 and 4, and perhaps a bomb at the tail end of the pattern as blocking breaks down. Give me two 3-6” type events and I’ll be happier than a pig in shit all things considered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 how are we not getting blitzed here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 how are we high and dry here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 48 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: there are prob 3 cities in the country that see our traffic and are like, yeah that's ok. ATL is one of them. Yep, sucks to drive there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 18 minutes ago, Ji said: how are we not getting blitzed here 12 minutes ago, Ji said: how are we high and dry here Didn’t we have this discussion earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, psuhoffman said: Didn’t we have this discussion earlier? yes but the ull never dropped that far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ji said: yes but the ull never dropped that far south But it’s too late the surface low is past us. Part of the problem is how this evolves. The angle at which the NS and SS waves interact is awful for us. The NS wave is diving in from the NW. So imagine the flow around these waves. Initially before they phase the flow of the NS wave to the NW is interfering with the ability of the SS wave to have moisture transport to the west of the low. Instead the moisture transport gets focused along the inverted trough between the waves. Later once they phase a healthy CCB associated precip shield can develop to the west but look where the capture will happen? Because of the trajectory of the two waves it’s going to place at our latitude. That’s when precip will start to expend. But it will be past us before that happens. It’s more the way this evolves rather than the track that is the problem. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 @Ji the only way I could see this working were if the NS wave trends even another 100 miles south and intersects in VA, and the SS wave slows down and gets captured and stalls off the Delmarva v up near NYC But that runs contrary to every typical correction we see with these. Even if guidance was showing that now wouldn’t we still kinda know it was likely to screw us over? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 @Ji lastly why would you even worry about the NAM. Even the euro is dangerous here. Has a nasty track record of developing these too fast. All other 0z guidance so far trended north. The RGEM isn’t even a big hit for NYC. It’s targeting Vermont! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Ji lastly why would you even worry about the NAM. Even the euro is dangerous here. Has a nasty track record of developing these too fast. All other 0z guidance so far trended north. The RGEM isn’t even a big hit for NYC. It’s targeting Vermont! The Euro definitely does this a lot. NYC has to hate the Euro. I feel like it has shown a bunch of systems like this before to be big hits and then pulls the rug out right before the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: The Euro definitely does this a lot. NYC has to hate the Euro. I feel like it has shown a bunch of systems like this before to be big hits and then pulls the rug out right before the event. They fall for it every time. I have college friends in the NYC area. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve told them be careful of the NAM and Euro in NS miller b setups but everytime they get excited by whatever the snowiest model is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2023 Author Share Posted March 11, 2023 Enough climate chatter please. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 They fall for it every time. I have college friends in the NYC area. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve told them be careful of the NAM and Euro in NS miller b setups but everytime they get excited by whatever the snowiest model is. They’re falling apart up there. Ukmet was the peak last night showing insane totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Check this out… the wave we spoke of earlier…00z cmc . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Season saver setup on the cmc…. Same type of setup evolution as 18z gfs had . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 00z gfs has similar evolution but just little too sloppy this run…. Time period is def in play though for now…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Tracks right up the coast. Absolute prime setup . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Tracks right up the coast. Absolute prime setup .A nice 3-5 inches to begin and end the season Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 A nice 3-5 inches to begin and end the season Sent from my SM-A515U using TapatalkIf this storm unfolded as depicted… originating over FL and riding the coast like that with a 50-50 and blocking in place, we’d be talking more than 3-5” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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