Buddy1987 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Everything seems to suggest an inch or two at minimum, especially SW. I'm eyeing it as a far less intense chase destination if I'd really just like to see an inch or snow before all is said and done. Yea I’d def be ecstatic for an inch never mind two haha although it’s gonna be like mud city outside after it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I'm eyeing it as a far less intense chase destination if I'd really just like to see an inch or snow before all is said and done. Narrator: Big game hunting in our new era. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 At 192, GFS is close with Wave 3...just can't turn the corner...looks like a front with a wave developing on it. sigh looks like 2-4 metro areas and a C VA special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 My bad, did 48 hour totals instead of 24. Still meh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: At 192, GFS is close with Wave 3...just can't turn the corner...looks like a front with a wave developing on it. sigh looks like 2-4 metro areas and a C VA special still in the game 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: still in the game Yeah, for now I'm still interested. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 It'll be interesting if that holds for a few days because you just know it will tick north at the last minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 24 minutes ago, stormtracker said: My bad, did 48 hour totals instead of 24. Still meh That’s exactly where you want the Gfs at that range. Joking not joking. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s exactly where you want the Gfs at that range. Joking not joking. Not joking 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 No one should care what the GFS says beyond 3 days. Wait for the GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: No one should care what the GFS says beyond 3 days. Wait for the GEFS. Is it a huge deal? no Is it better to show that than some cutter…yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: No one should care what the GFS says beyond 3 days. Wait for the GEFS. Corrected to reflect Weenie Rule #17: No one should care what the GFS says beyond 3 days unless it shows snow. If it doesn't show snow, wait for the GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 15 minutes ago, Weather Will said: No one should care what the GFS says beyond 3 days. Wait for the GEFS. If it's the WB GFS, then I'm all in on it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 WB 12Z GEFS thru Day 8…Well…. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 It is Over, Grover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 13 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GEFS thru Day 8…Well…. Not sure whether to be happy I'm in the "10%" range, or just depressed with everyone else. So many feels... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, paxpatriot said: Not sure whether to be happy I'm in the "10%" range, or just depressed with everyone else. So many feels... Well, it's going to change every 6 hours for the next 7 days, ultimately being a huge disappointment, so....depressed? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Mood in the NYC metro thread certainly took a nose dive with todays runs talk about a pullback. UKmet went from 20+ at 00z along the coast near NYC LI to 2-3”. Inland still gets rocked. The gradient is intense. My parents place 30 miles inland gets over a foot while southern westchester gets a few inches. Classic marginal setup with a 87/287 fall line. I’d hate to be on the wrong side of that gradient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 12z UKMET. Takes away feet of snow for NYC LI Boston and eastern New England. Last nights run showed 40+ from the lower Hudson valley into CT and MA. At least we stayed at 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 hours ago, Blizzard Hunter said: I get that that it is the Icon, but I'll bet final solution is not far off. is your profile pic John Belushi in quick sand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Canadian did the exact same thing. 20” at my parents, 5” a mere 10 miles to their SE and squat along the coast. Weenie suicide watch in full effect. Maybe I won’t travel to my parents place for this one. Jesus. That gradient is criminal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2023 Author Share Posted March 10, 2023 Looks good. lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Our best threat is still after these miller B waves. But it looks like the better chance is the second of those (what would be wave 4). An illustration. This is the setup for wave 3 on the 12z GEFS. Euro 0z looked similar. What’s new compared to a few days ago is X. That NS feature coming across over the top changed things. It’s still not impossible but we need that feature to get out in front more. If they come across in tandem x suppresses Y. If X gets behind it likely pulls it to our NW. the win has to be either a perfectly timed phase OR x gets far enough in front to suppress the boundary but give Y room to develop. It’s not impossible. Todays Gfs almost pulled it off. But X has made the equation more complicated. We don’t often do complicated well. But look at wave 4 Same good longwave setup. The pattern looks stable btw and unfortunately if we weren’t about to run out of clock we likely would get a snow from this eventually. But no sign of a NS feature to complicate this wave. The next SS wave is coming out of the SW. The longwave pattern in the pac will kick it out as another ridge tries to build into the west. Blocking will force it east not north. Leads to this on gefs and eps 50/50 from whatever wave 3 does. Blocking. SS wave coming across under our latitude. No sign of a NS wave in the way. Now at this point a few days ago there wasn’t any indication of NS interference yet either. So that could pop up if the NS wave timing changes. That’s what happened to wave 3. A NS wave trended way faster and is now over the top v back in the pac. Wave 3 could still work if that trend continues and that NS wave X ends up out in front enough. Wave 4 can also work. After that I think our clock has expired regardless of how great the pattern is. Unfortunately our best pattern is coming late. But we rarely win with the initial major amplification in the east in a blocking regime. Wave 1 and 2 are really both that amplification. They used to be one wave a week ago when guidance was spitting out some crazy stupid solutions. They ended up splitting into two waves so neither is a super storm. But we score more often after the major amplification as the pattern relaxes if a SS wave can take advantage while the boundary is still suppressed. Just a shame that period isn’t coming until around the 17-24th. This is very similar to March 18 but we’re running about a few days behind from the SSW to the everything after. We all joked “wonder what happens if we got 2018 a little earlier”. The snow gods said “let’s see what happens if you get 2018 a little later hahaha”. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 12z EURO looks fine (biggest of the season?) for our further SW folks. Up north, it took NYC down to 4-6", which we'd obviously kill for but did cut their totals in half. Woe is them. Catskils still look like the spot to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Is this the spring/summer thread? Def ready to catch some waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 12z EURO looks fine (biggest of the season?) for our further SW folks. Up north, it took NYC down to 4-6", which we'd obviously kill for but did cut their totals in half. Woe is them. Catskils still look like the spot to be. the heavy precip just dies at our door step. There is still time to get a stronger SS like the 00z had....but weak sauce low going under us isnt goign to cut it with marginal temps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Euro is some shit for Wave 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: Euro is some shit for Wave 3 thats good..because everytime it looks awesome at day 8-10...it turns into shite 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: Euro is some shit for Wave 3 Yeah I think we are out on wave 2 barring a miracle at this point and probably getting close to out on wave 3. It's getting late, early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 this is not a high amplitude MJO Phase 8-1 look so im going to toss this as meteorologically impossible lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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