3/10 and beyond... all the waves threats

[osfan24]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If NYC-CT got a 30+ inch storm like the ukie depicted, I wouldn’t be upset about that. I actually would be very excited because if they can get that, we can, too. We just need minor 100-200 mile adjustments in a global wave pattern that are more likely to come to fruition in a bona fide nino. 

If they got that, It would literally be the worst possible ending to this wretched season/stretch of bad winters. Although I guess it would be wishful thinking that it's the ending to our stretch of bad winters. Seems like this is never gonna flip.

[psuhoffman]

38 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Wait, what? Where is all the snow north of us??

 

31 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Hasn’t started yet in earnest but it was also close to a GFS cave, which would push the snow deeper into the interior NE and away from the coast. Jackpot zone of southern Vermont maybe instead of the Poconos.

The run ends at 90...it's coming.  The 6z euro actually didn't trend worse at h5 but it trended weaker with the SS wave.  The problem for us is that is actually our best chance at some snow here...is to have a stronger initial SS wave.  The NS upper low is actually slightly south of 0z even...but because the SS wave was weaker the secondary is developing slower and we didnt get that initial slug of WAA moisture from the SS so we get left out...but that low is about to go nuts in the nest few frames as it phases with the NS.  On the one hand the euro didn't really move towards the gfs wrt the main event...compare the 6z euro and gfs at h5 and you see its worlds apart...and the 6z euro looks pretty much the same at h5 as the 0z...but we need so so so much to get perfectly right here... in this case the SS is slightly weaker and its game over regardless of the h5 track.  We would still need that h5 to be about 100 miles further south of the furthest south model that is known to be too far south on these lol.  I am holding out some small hope...I am still keeping an eye on it...because every once in a while something crazy can happen...but I really really really doubt it here.  Actually if you told me one of 2 options was going to happen and said I had to bet on one of them and my life depended on it... and choice A was our area gets a significant snow and choice B was even the NYC area gets screwed and it ends up north of them also.... I would easily put my money on B.  

[Terpeast]

28 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

If they got that, It would literally be the worst possible ending to this wretched season/stretch of bad winters. Although I guess it would be wishful thinking that it's the ending to our stretch of bad winters. Seems like this is never gonna flip.

Well, I’m going in with the assumption that a) this is just not our year, and b) if NYC can get 30” in mid March, then we almost certainly can get it in Jan or Feb in a better year. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Still looks like wave 4 is our best(last) chance.

 

It does...but wave 3 looked exactly like that 48 hours ago also...then morphed into a more NS dominant setup as it neared the range guidance can start to resolve wave spacing and interactions with a bit more clarity.  The pieces are all there... both wave 3 (it could still evolve its not actually that far from what we need just have to get that NS feature out in front a bit more to both suppress the thermal boundary AND give the SS wave room to breath) and wave 4 for this to work.  Unlike most of the ridiculous nonsense models were showing that were simply a product of chaos these setups have the longwave pattern features necessary to possibly work.  Problem is we are down to one last shot, time is running out, and climo is now working against us to the point that even if everything goes right it could just be too warm...and that is without even factoring in that it has been too warm sometimes for no damn good reason in mid winter lately.  But it's worth tracking, why the hell not.  

 

BTW after some of our discussions lately...where I focus more on "why this should work" and you focus on "but this is why it isn't" I realized what the difference in our focus is.  With all these you are 100% right in what the limiting factor is.  Yea sometimes there was a NS wave running interference over the top.  Sometimes the thermal source region wasnt perfect.  Sometimes the wave too a track a bit inside of perfect.  But here is where my perspective differs... IMO those are valid reasons why none of those were flush hits.  None should have been a 8" snowstorm.  But none of those excuses are reasons why we don't get ANY SNOW AT ALL ANYMORE for long long long stretches anytime the pattern isn't amazing unless we get cross polar flow like last January.  

Here is my reasoning... I pay attention to the pattern analogs.  We are underperforming them constantly over the last 7 years.  When we have had really good patterns and the analogs were spitting out historic periods we ended up just getting some snow.  But more often the issue is, and this was true much of this winter...the analogs weren't good...but the analog periods also weren't complete shutouts.  There were often 1-3" snows within a few days of the analog dates all winter.  There was one really truly awful period from about January 7 to Feb 3 were the analogs were actually shutout patterns.  But most of the winter the analogs while nothing good were not total shutouts either.  Yet we weren't getting those 2" snows with a flawed storm....we were getting absolutely shutout.  This is not just this winter...this has been true for many years now.  Flaws that should mean we just get 1-3" before rain or on the back end of a storm...now mean we get absolutely nothing and frankly not even close to anything.  That is the difference between a bad year being 10" of snow and at least tolerable and an unbearable raging pile of shit like 2017 and 2020 and this year.  

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Well, I’m going in with the assumption that a) this is just not our year, and b) if NYC can get 30” in mid March, then we almost certainly can get it in Jan or Feb in a better year. 

I have no doubts we can still get a huge snowstorm from a SS dominant storm that bombs up the east coast like 83/96/2010/2016.  We had enough wiggle room with those type synoptic setups that I highly doubt the equation has changed so much so that those are now impossible.  Eventually if this trend continues...but I doubt yet. 

My concern is can we still get those smaller storms in marginal temp setups that actually make up a MUCH bigger part of our snowfall climo.  And I see very little evidence of that.  

[Terpeast]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I have no doubts we can still get a huge snowstorm from a SS dominant storm that bombs up the east coast like 83/96/2010/2016.  We had enough wiggle room with those type synoptic setups that I highly doubt the equation has changed so much so that those are now impossible.  Eventually if this trend continues...but I doubt yet. 

My concern is can we still get those smaller storms in marginal temp setups that actually make up a MUCH bigger part of our snowfall climo.  And I see very little evidence of that.  

Yeah, you’re on spot with the smaller storms. Anecdotally, I remember getting a lot of 2-4” and 4-8” snows when I was a kid, but those became fewer and farther between as the years passed by. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, you’re on spot with the smaller storms. Anecdotally, I remember getting a lot of 2-4” and 4-8” snows when I was a kid, but those became fewer and farther between as the years passed by. 

It's pretty logical... a lot of those 2-4" storms of years gone by were flawed.  The airmass wasn't that good.  The track wasn't perfect.  It came together late.  That's why they weren't 10" snows lol.  Now those flaws are cited for the reason snow isn't even within 200 miles of us!  The other reasons is SOME of them were "clipper" type systems along the arctic boundary and that boundary just rarely makes it this far south anymore.  I saw some graphic about a year ago showing how the average location of the polar jet has shifted north.  

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's pretty logical... a lot of those 2-4" storms of years gone by were flawed.  The airmass wasn't that good.  The track wasn't perfect.  It came together late.  That's why they weren't 10" snows lol.  Now those flaws are cited for the reason snow isn't even within 200 miles of us!  The other reasons is SOME of them were "clipper" type systems along the arctic boundary and that boundary just rarely makes it this far south anymore.  I saw some graphic about a year ago showing how the average location of the polar jet has shifted north.  

Do you still have that graphic? And on what time period was it based? 

My question is whether the polar jet shifted north because of the string of ninas, or because of [something else that shall not be named]. Or both.

[stormtracker]

Almost time yall

[GATECH]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Almost time yall

…for flip flop season?  Please be yes!

[Baltimorewx]

43 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, you’re on spot with the smaller storms. Anecdotally, I remember getting a lot of 2-4” and 4-8” snows when I was a kid, but those became fewer and farther between as the years passed by. 

Yes, it just seems like its all or nothing now. I recall having some winters where we had several 2-4/3-6" type clipper systems, now it seems like we never get those, always go north into Great Lakes

[H2O]

25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Almost time yall

[Its a Breeze]

29 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Almost time yall

To predict the next 70 degree day?

I'll have to look it up, but I'm pretty sure for DCA this has been the worse winter in terms of no warm temps to compensate for the no snow. Meaning all of our previous tremendously horrible winters, we've at least had a couple of 70 degree days to sort of assuage the anger.

DCA has had 1 such day since Nov. 12th. Cool enough to be annoying. Not cold enough to snow. Nothing worse.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said:

To predict the next 70 degree day?

I'll have to look it up, but I'm pretty sure for DCA this has been the worse winter in terms of no warm temps to compensate for the no snow. Meaning all of our previous tremendously horrible winters, we've at least had a couple of 70 degree days to sort of assuage the anger.

DCA has had 1 such day since Nov. 12th. Cool enough to be annoying. Not cold enough to snow. Nothing worse.

really?  seems like it was constantly warm...maybe just my perception

 

[jayyy]

Any shot we see a few changes after wave 1 passes by? Not insinuating we see massive changes that lead to significant snow for us, but enough to get a couple inches into the area. 6z euro was a step in our direction as far as getting some snow into NW zones.

Models are locked in on the idea of a major Northeast / New England snowstorm (although NYC is currently modeled between 3-20” depending on the model - nature of the Miller B beast for them) but I feel there’s enough wiggle room with where the primary tracks and the coastal gets going to impact us. I know many would take a 2-4” storm in a heartbeat if it trended that way.

Long shot I know, and it’s rare we see a trend in our direction these days, but one can hope.

[jayyy]

really?  seems like it was constantly warm...maybe just my perception
 

We’ve had a lot of days in the 40s-50s. Some 60s. We didn’t torch really at all (70s+)


.

[Its a Breeze]

9 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

really?  seems like it was constantly warm...maybe just my perception

We've definitely been well above normal, but as jay said, no real torch. And cloudy and 60s have definitely outweighed any sunny and 60s.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Do you still have that graphic? And on what time period was it based? 

My question is whether the polar jet shifted north because of the string of ninas, or because of [something else that shall not be named]. Or both.

it was on my twitter weather feed... one of those "experts" that likes to focus on one thing or another and talks in tongues I think.  I think it was a 10 year trend.  So hard to say.  I do think a flip to a more favorable longwave pattern cycle will help.  Some of this is the fact we are getting what would be a hostile period in any era superimposed on a warmer base state.  The question imo is how much does it help.  Chuck just pointed out that despite the waning of the nina the pacific hadley cell is not being altered yet, and that usually precedes a nino.  2019 did almost nothing to alter that factor and I am worried that a nino wont simply cure all this.  I hope it does.  I really really do hope we got like 100" of snow next year.  But I am curious to see how much of this can be cured simply by altering the enso state.  

[midatlanticweather]

LOL! Painful ICON

[Blizzard Hunter]

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

LOL! Painful ICON

I get that that it is the Icon, but I'll bet final solution is not far off. 

[fujiwara79]

Chicago has had a couple perfect track rainstorms this winter too, so it's not just us.  The oceans have become saunas and probably the latent heat flux is having some impact.  It's all part of the New Base State.

[Chris78]

44 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Any shot we see a few changes after wave 1 passes by? Not insinuating we see massive changes that lead to significant snow for us, but enough to get a couple inches into the area. 6z euro was a step in our direction as far as getting some snow into NW zones.

Models are locked in on the idea of a major Northeast / New England snowstorm (although NYC is currently modeled between 3-20” depending on the model - nature of the Miller B beast for them) but I feel there’s enough wiggle room with where the primary tracks and the coastal gets going to impact us. I know many would take a 2-4” storm in a heartbeat if it trended that way.

Long shot I know, and it’s rare we see a trend in our direction these days, but one can hope.

6z euro was a big step back compared to the 00z run.

[stormtracker]

Euro is such a fucking thirst trap.

[NorthArlington101]

I *think* the GFS is a little improved for us at 12z? SW wave looks a little nicer, if I'm looking at the right thing lol.

edit: even if true not sure it mattered

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I *think* the GFS is a little improved for us at 12z? SW wave looks a little nicer, if I'm looking at the right thing lol.

edit: even if true not sure it mattered

Narrator:  It did not.

[Buddy1987]

Anyone want to chime in as to what expectation level should be down this way (let’s say CHO and southwest of there) with it moving in a little bit earlier? 

[snowmagnet]

26 minutes ago, Blizzard Hunter said:

I get that that it is the Icon, but I'll bet final solution is not far off. 

That was over us last week. 

[NorthArlington101]

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Narrator:  It did not.

At least we can take solace in the fact this run doesn't dump on NYC or Boston. Congrats NY/MA border. No apologies for rooting for them to get nothing.

[Weather Will]

Wave 1 and Wave 2.

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Anyone want to chime in as to what expectation level should be down this way (let’s say CHO and southwest of there) with it moving in a little bit earlier? 

Everything seems to suggest an inch or two at minimum, especially SW. I'm eyeing it as a far less intense chase destination if I'd really just like to see an inch or snow before all is said and done.