WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Somebody start a thread for tomorrow. Let’s try a last minute approach. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Somebody start a thread for tomorrow. Let’s try a last minute approach. I started a thread. My first ever. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: Hmmm….just got NAM’D (WB 18Z) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Realllyyy wish we could find a way to get that Monday/Tuesday deal cranking sooner. The low develops pretty far south down the coast but it just takes forever to really bomb out. Just too far north by the time it goes crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, osfan24 said: Realllyyy wish we could find a way to get that Monday/Tuesday deal cranking sooner. The low develops pretty far south down the coast but it just takes forever to really bomb out. Just too far north by the time it goes crazy. Need the upper low to dig more for that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Need the upper low to dig more for that to happen. Any shot at that or should I just mail it in and hope for the best with wave 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 38 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I started a thread. My first ever. Good luck. Be great to have you be the one that changes our luck. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 13 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Any shot at that or should I just mail it in and hope for the best with wave 3? Stranger things have happened BUT the euro is the only model really close and it has a tendency to over amplify in the medium range. Also these NS dominant miller b systems have a history of developing later not earlier. Some of NYCs biggest busts ever were when they were expecting a big snow from one of these and it trended north. It happens to then too we just don’t care when it does lol. If I had to put money on it, it’s actually more likely to trend the wrong way imo. But I’m wrong sometimes and it’s not no chance. I’m just not holding my breath. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 I spent last weeks first snow up at Resorts World in Monticello to enjoy some snow. If the euro depiction is right, I’ll be headed back. I have nice comped rooms if anyone wishes to partake. It really does help ease the pain we’ve felt all winter long. Experienced a 10” storm in Saratoga springs and a foot in Schenectady and it was 100% worth it. Nothing quite like getting shellacked at home, but close enough. Especially up in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 GFS with yet another look at H5 vs 18z. What a model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 GFS with yet another look at H5 vs 18z. What a modelI'll take that gfs solution as a building blockSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Yep. Going to my parents for this one. Wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 I The ultimate kick in the testicles for our area if this pans out. Good fucking lord. 10:1 ratios not going to occur but still…. Second run in a row NYC to Boston gets absolutely buried. Euro isn’t far off just warmer. GFS is the outlier versus globals showing an interior special. I hate this hobby. NY, here I come. Max: 46.9 (likely way overblown but wow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 WB 0Z EURO 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 00z EURO was better because the ridge out west was much taller. H5 low pass was pretty close by to us too 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 hour ago, jayyy said: I The ultimate kick in the testicles for our area if this pans out. Good fucking lord. 10:1 ratios not going to occur but still…. Second run in a row NYC to Boston gets absolutely buried. Euro isn’t far off just warmer. GFS is the outlier versus globals showing an interior special. I hate this hobby. NY, here I come. Max: 46.9 (likely way overblown but wow) Yeah I hope not...but this would be a typical nina March result, tbh I almost expect a 2018 redux but who knows. (But hey, at least this miss wouldn't be because it's too warm for no reason, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Need the upper low to dig more for that to happen. 0Z Euro heard your soft cries and responded somewhat. Now cry louder! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Wave 2 looks close on the Euro but still needs more work. Wave 3 looks like we might need to jump over to the severe weather thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Lol jb posting euro with cm map Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Still looks like wave 4 is our best(last) chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 4 hours ago, MDstorm said: 0Z Euro heard your soft cries and responded somewhat. Now cry louder! 30 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Wave 2 looks close on the Euro but still needs more work. Wave 3 looks like we might need to jump over to the severe weather thread. Across most guidance (Gfs is kinda on its own) we got about half the trend we would need to get a big snow into at least the northeast half of our region. That’s good. But some caution…we need a trend against the typical correction to Continue . And as it gets closer continues trends become less likely. Additionally the euro ukmet and NAM have a nasty history of being over amplified too quickly with these type storms. That combo has authored done massive head fake busts on miller B late developers over the years. And they are the models that are actually closest so we might need more than we think. Guess that’s a long winded way of saying that while I think the Gfs is way too underdone history suggests some degree of compromise is most likely and that won’t work for us. I’d actually be nervous about that if I was in places like NE PA or NJ that are expecting a massive snow but are close to the western edge and ignoring the Gfs. The last 24 hours got us back in the game. But it’s like we were down 28-0 at halftime and now we’re down 28-14 going into the 4th. We have a shot now but we’re still down and time is running out. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Essentially the only thing giving me a smidge of hope here in the Lehigh Valley, SEPA, is that some half decent Mets on Twitter aren’t immediately discounting the EURO despite its bias. Other then that not much to cling to at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 6z EURO took a step back for us and likely further north too. Wouldn’t call it a cave yet, but not as nice looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 WB 6Z EURO showed that the 0Z was a head fake… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 25 minutes ago, CAPE said: Still looks like wave 4 is our best(last) chance. Always 2 weeks away my friend…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, Weather Will said: Always 2 weeks away my friend…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 10 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO showed that the 0Z was a head fake… Wait, what? Where is all the snow north of us?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Wait, what? Where is all the snow north of us??Hasn’t started yet in earnest but it was also close to a GFS cave, which would push the snow deeper into the interior NE and away from the coast. Jackpot zone of southern Vermont maybe instead of the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 16 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Always 2 weeks away my friend…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 If NYC-CT got a 30+ inch storm like the ukie depicted, I wouldn’t be upset about that. I actually would be very excited because if they can get that, we can, too. We just need minor 100-200 mile adjustments in a global wave pattern that are more likely to come to fruition in a bona fide nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now