The 4 Seasons Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Holy fuckin shit, what did the GFS just do? i thought the 18Z ECMWF was off its rocker but the GFS said ill see your call and i'm all in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 CMC came NE a bit as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Lol…exactly my point the whole time with this. Euro now has .50” of precip here. Should I believe it…cuz everybody keeps telling me it’s the best model hands down? Lmfao… so with that being said, laughing at the euro but the GFS swings from nearly nothing 0.03 to 0.18 to 0.51 qpf for each run since 12Z. Even worse swings than the euro..thats what i mean by theres really no bar out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: so with that being said, laughing at the euro but the GFS swings from nearly nothing 0.03 to 0.18 to 0.51 qpf for each run since 12Z. Even worse swings than the euro..thats what i mean by theres really no bar out there. Yup…they all aren’t to great lately. 1 inch qpf in NYC..wow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 MJO812 will love this run 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: MJO812 will love this run Maybe but with it starting out as rain and turning to white rain with temps around 40 the city would be lucky to see a slushy inch with that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Maybe but with it starting out as rain and turning to white rain with temps around 40 the city would be lucky to see a slushy inch with that look Man you had to crush Ant’s moment didn’t you….don’t expect any breaks when driving in the city now. Rates Though and wet bulbing could help down there….? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Maybe but with it starting out as rain and turning to white rain with temps around 40 the city would be lucky to see a slushy inch with that look Yeah it's white rain for the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Man you had to crush Ant’s moment didn’t you….don’t expect any breaks when driving in the city now. Rates Though and wet bulbing could help down there….? In the city I doubt it unless it comes down heavy for a couple/few hours. Long Island away from the shore and heat island could benefit as well as NJ. And obviously S CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Looks like the 18z euro was into something. You can see how much more impressive the upper air is too on some of these runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks like the 18z euro was into something. You can see how much more impressive the upper air is too on some of these runs. I asked this a few posts back, but Could this coming back north, potentially help Monday/Tuesday by adding some confluence back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Man you had to crush Ant’s moment didn’t you….don’t expect any breaks when driving in the city now. Rates Though and wet bulbing could help down there….? A lot of that qpf at the start looks like mostly rain and when it does transfer over its still gonna be pretty warm in the city itself, i doubt they get lower than mid 30s, unless it comes down really hard for a while 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 These could just be short term trends and models are seeing something that could just as easily reverse tomorrow, we got a lot runs to go so well see where were at tomorrow. But for now everything at 00z looks good for a few inches in CT away from the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Man you had to crush Ant’s moment didn’t you….don’t expect any breaks when driving in the city now. Rates Though and wet bulbing could help down there….? i expect nothing but a free pass when im doing 90 in a 45 and free EZ passes over the Tappan Zee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 You can add the UKMET to the list too... not as robust as the Euro or the GFS but a solid shift NE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Ukie bumped N at 0z enough for Danbury to At least just S of HFD to see a couple 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Looks like the Euro is ticking north again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said: Looks like the Euro is ticking north again. Pretty bullish for western CT. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 4 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said: Maybe but with it starting out as rain and turning to white rain with temps around 40 the city would be lucky to see a slushy inch with that look This is a HV special. More specifically 30-40 or more miles north. NYC needs 0.6 inches to avoid their worst snowfall season ever. I doubt this does it. Brooklyn where MJO is will probably see 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 North trends are back after years being away .2-4” south of 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 9 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: This is a HV special. More specifically 30-40 or more miles north. NYC needs 0.6 inches to avoid their worst snowfall season ever. I doubt this does it. Brooklyn where MJO is will probably see 0. Probably, at this point it's certainly possibly this could occur. They need 0.5" right now to tie the record which from what i understand replaces the previous record, but yeah 0.6 to actually break it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Probably, at this point it's certainly possibly this could occur. They need 0.5" right now to tie the record which from what i understand replaces the previous record, but yeah 0.6 to actually break it. I’m glad we stayed the course on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m glad we stayed the course on this Yesterday you said 1-3, so it seems you've gone up. The trends the past few runs are definitely positive for CT so i would lean a bit higher but probably not more than C-2 for upwards in NE CT. The hills of NNH and NFF seem the best spot right now for possible advisory snows probably 2-3 there, the coast and valleys are still going to have a hard time accumulating. We'll see what todays runs do, as this could very easily reverse the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Looks like BOX even cut back from yesterdays PM update, not sure why...seems a bit low to me given the overnight data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Congrats CT! EoR looks on with jealous puppy eyes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 Holy crap gfs .. probably take half of this for most areas except highest hills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Danbury ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Holy crap gfs .. probably take half of this for most areas except highest hills. It won’t stick on roads anywhere with furnace sun tomorrow and fluffiness of it. 2-4 border to border is a good call for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It won’t stick on roads anywhere with furnace sun tomorrow and fluffiness of it. 2-4 border to border is a good call for now I like 1-2 for you. Higher amounts WOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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