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March 10-11 light snow threat for SW New England.


Sey-Mour Snow
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  On 3/9/2023 at 11:12 PM, FXWX said:

I do think it will have a significant drop-off once it reaches the river; if not a bit before... focus on western third or half of CT... The dynamics are going to struggle to bodily shift into eastern CT...

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It’s more of NW to SE gradient .. not north south . All guidance today gets a few inches across all of N CT all the way into RI. Unless trends go south tonight I don’t see how anyone in CT away from the coast sees less than 2”. I also think valley may struggle a bit . I know that no one cares what I think.. just my 2 cents 

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  On 3/9/2023 at 11:15 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s more of NW to SE gradient .. not north south . All guidance today gets a few inches across all of N CT all the way into RI. Unless trends go south tonight I don’t see how anyone in CT away from the coast sees less than 2”. I also think valley may struggle a bit . I know that no one cares what I think.. just my 2 cents 

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That's a tough forecast in your area given the ECMWF and GFS... vs the mesos.

I'd be cautiously optimistic... could see 1-2" for you or 4.

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  On 3/9/2023 at 11:15 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s more of NW to SE gradient .. not north south . All guidance today gets a few inches across all of N CT all the way into RI. Unless trends go south tonight I don’t see how anyone in CT away from the coast sees less than 2”. I also think valley may struggle a bit . I know that no one cares what I think.. just my 2 cents 

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I've got a general coating to 2 inches across eastern half of CT, but I think any 2 inch stuff will be mainly hilly areas of Tolland and Windham, maybe far northern new London County.  Low elevations are going to see lots of coating to mainly an inch on non-travel surfaces... will revisit tomorrow...   Support continues for solid moderate / borderline heavy zone across parts of from eastern NY on into western CT and west-central CT.  I do think the juicier that area (western CT) gets, the more likely we will see enough moisture to spill eastward and raise the potential for some 2 to 3" inch amounts east of the river.  Just not there yet, but there is some wiggle room.

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  On 3/10/2023 at 10:22 AM, CoastalWx said:

Models are pretty darn warm tonight.

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This season! Pretty big red flag this morning, the temps. We need those rates overnight or it might be 35⁰ and slush that never adds up to much more than 2 inches. We shall see though, hoping to grab 3-5, should make for some pretty pictures in the morning with everything caked in snow

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  On 3/10/2023 at 10:38 AM, CoastalWx said:

That’s not happening. Boundary layer is pretty warm to start. 

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Agreed. Places that can cool enough before it starts and have good enough rates will do OK but I don't think that applies to much of CT. Also, does it really get near 50 today before the cloud cover arrives??

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