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March 10-11 light snow threat for SW New England.


Sey-Mour Snow
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DXR special....those hills just north of the Merritt in SW CT might do ok. Hopefully the shortwave comes in a bit better today....though the 12z NAM didn't really give any confidence to that happening...looked worse than the 06z run.

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36 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Seems like guidance is coming into agreement on some snow making it into SW areas Friday PM into Saturday AM with temps just cold enough and the bulk of it coming after sunset.  Some areas may be able to sneak in an advisory snowfall.   Something to track until Monday... 

 

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1-4” inch evebt south of I-90 seems pretty straightforward forecast 

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Amazing how much the GFS trended south in the past 36-48h....got it's ass totally whipped by the Euro in this one from D4ish unlike the last event. This is why we don't de-emphasize the Euro too much...esp when it's not totally on an island.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Amazing how much the GFS trended south in the past 36-48h....got it's ass totally whipped by the Euro in this one from D4ish unlike the last event. This is why we don't de-emphasize the Euro too much...esp when it's not totally on an island.

True and every single person on here knew it was 100% wrong. It was late picking it up, in fact it didn’t pick it up until euro let it go lol.. Sad performance by gfs. 

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Grab 1-3” Sat AM to freshen things back up and hood next week works out

I'm not even sure we're going to get one to three inches where we are including you. It just seems like it's shifted south to the point where maybe Southern Connecticut will get some accumulation with the rest of us. Might get a dusting if anything at all. Next week's all we got. Not sure of anything after that, but we're really starting to get to the end.

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Euro snow maps are showing 1-3 for W CT and 3-6 for NNJ. For us and coastal areas with temps in the mid 30s and 0.1-0.3/hr rates im not sure how much of that would actually accumulate as always up and in higher elevations would do better. 

The shore and low elevations i think would struggle to accumulate at all really, then you have a pretty sharp qpf drop off to the NE. Id probably wouldn't go more than a coating to an inch for really anywhere in the state right now. Higher elevations in NFF, NNH county and Litchfield would be the best spot to possibly pick up an inch or two

ecmwf-deterministic-hartford-snow_1hr_10to1-8510800.thumb.png.63c19f73b143711e90a50c7e2b2f0ccf.pngecmwf-deterministic-hartford-t2m_f-8510800.thumb.png.2439fe6f2b060793ca9272b5c14cd071.pngecmwf-deterministic-hartford-total_precip_inch-8546800.thumb.png.74fe6da03db5bd08e2da31209b2d2115.png

 

 

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1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Euro snow maps are showing 1-3 for W CT and 3-6 for NNJ. For us and coastal areas with temps in the mid 30s and 0.1-0.3/hr rates im not sure how much of that would actually accumulate as always up and in higher elevations would do better. 

The shore and low elevations i think would struggle to accumulate at all really, then you have a pretty sharp qpf drop off to the NE. Id probably wouldn't go more than a coating to an inch for really anywhere in the state right now. Higher elevations in NFF, NNH county and Litchfield would be the best spot to possibly pick up an inch or two

ecmwf-deterministic-hartford-snow_1hr_10to1-8510800.thumb.png.63c19f73b143711e90a50c7e2b2f0ccf.pngecmwf-deterministic-hartford-t2m_f-8510800.thumb.png.2439fe6f2b060793ca9272b5c14cd071.pngecmwf-deterministic-hartford-total_precip_inch-8546800.thumb.png.74fe6da03db5bd08e2da31209b2d2115.png

 

 

It's a NJ kind of winter.

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Snowy Saturday morning south of 90

Friday night/Saturday...closed low near Newfoundland shunts upstream
closed low over PA, to dive SE tracking south of New England.
However, multi model agreement that sufficient deep layer moisture
and lift advect into southwest MA/CT and RI Fri night for a period
of light snow, with minor accumulations possible (coating to an inch
or 2" possible), especially across CT. Light snow/flurries
elsewhere, especially Worcester Hills with moist NE flow 
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